Experience with GHG emission projections for energy sector in LATVIA Workshop on emissions projection 6-8 September 2004, UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn Janis.

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Presentation transcript:

Experience with GHG emission projections for energy sector in LATVIA Workshop on emissions projection 6-8 September 2004, UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn Janis Rekis Latvian Investment and Development Agency

History of MARKAL use for emission projections in energy sector Started in nd National Communication 3rd National Communication Projections for SO2, VOC, NOx and now …

Modelling approach Bottom-up rich technology optimization model Spread of action between supply and demand Emissions taxes and constraints Estimate system costs Sensitivity analyses

Overview of model Useful energy demand Primary fuel prices Menu of energy technologies production conversion transmission utilization Emission constraints Optimal least cost mix of technologies

Issues (1) Reporting –Generic tables (results, assumptions etc.) Problems –Emission factors for new fuels –Energy useful demand projections (how to link with macroeconomic forecast) –Possibility to deal with uncertainty with stochastic analyzes –Discrepancy between structure of energy balance and inventory (ex. off-road)

Issues (2) Notwithstanding to resent development in CC policy field National system isn’t yet established Lack of coordination between involved institutions Lack of financial capacity

GHG emission forecast in energy sector Gg

Forecast of GDP

CO2 emissions in energy sector, Gg different growth rates for useful energy demand Annual growth of ( ) ScenarioDM1DM2DM4DM6 Useful energy demand1.2%1.4%1.7%2.1% Electricity consumption1.4%2.1%2.8%3.8%