The Likud’s Return to Power By Doron Shultziner, Emory University

Likud’s Success Puzzle, Likud won 7 out of 11 elections since 1977 Likud members held the position of Prime Minister for over 21 years 24 years counting Olmert Likud made a comeback in the 2009 elections from 12 to 27 seats

The 17 th Knesset elections, 2006 Labor 19 Likud 12 Meretz 5 Hadash 3 UTJ 6 Shas 12 Ra’am Ta’al 4 Balad 3 Kadima 29 Right wing 50Left wing 34 Israel our Home 11 Religious Bloc 27 Center 36 Gil 7 National Union - NRP 9 Left & Center 70

The shift to the right in elections 2009 Labor 19 Likud 12 Meretz 5 Hadash 3 UTJ 6 Shas 12 Ra’am Ta’al 4 Balad 3 Kadima 29 Israel our Home 11 Religious Bloc 27 Gil 7 National Union - NRP

The 18 th Knesset elections, February 2009 Labor 13 Likud 27 Meretz 3 HADASH 4 UTJ 5 Shas 11 Ra’am Ta’al 4 Balad 3 Kadima 28 Right wing 65Left wing 27 Israel our Home 15 NRP 3 Religious Bloc 23 Left & Center 55 Center 28 National Union 4

Netanyahu’s Coalition 2009 Labor 13 Likud 27 Meretz 3 HADASH 4 UTJ 5 Shas 11 Ra’am Ta’al 4 Balad 3 Kadima 28 narrow right wing coalition 61 Israel our Home 15 National Union 4 NRP 3 Religious Bloc 23

Possible Explanations General Factors Anti-establishment spirit Attentive to marginalized groups Economic policies: free market Leadership and open elite Corruption and Anti- corruption Ideology Commitment to Pristine Ideology and pragmatism Greater Eretz Israel Iron Wall: emphasis on military power

Israeli-Jewish Group Identity Social Purpose Constitutive Norms Relational Comparisons Cognitive Models Unsympathetic or even hostile world (Siege Mentality); Israel is strong but vulnerable Self-determination; Security; Jewishness Non-Jews; Hostile Arab neighbors Heuristics: use strong measures for security; preserve unity

Tapping into Group Heuristics: The Likud’s Campaigns Categorization and Stereotypes Monopoly over security Monopoly over patriotism Jewish Tradition Negative Stereotypes of Opponents Smolani (Pinko or Liberal) Pro-Concession Pro-Palestinian Weak on Security Self-righteous Unpatriotic Tel-Aviv or Shenkin Anti-religious Latte and Sushi?

Smolani (Leftist) Tel- Aviv/Shenki n Unpatriotic Pro- Palestinian Pro- Concessions Weak on Security Self- righteous/Se lf-hate Anti- religious Elections 2006: Smolmert; Kadima (forward) to the 67’ lines Elections 2009: Concessions; Divide Jerusalem; Pro- Palestinian; Restraint; Weak on Security; Tel Aviv Categorization and Stereotypes

Campaigns Emphasis on fear and sense of security “Bibi will unite the people; together we will not be afraid” “With Tzipi Livni and the Kadima clan, we will not survive” “Tzipi Livni helped Hamas and Hezbollah get stronger and hurt us – she is not worthy” Tzipi Livni is “selling us to the Palestinians” and “dangerous the security of Israel” Patriotism and Unity: “Vote Likud if you are a patriot” Subtext: if you don’t vote Likud you are not a patriot “Likud – we are strong standing united” Likud jingle: “Only one can against all the Left”

When do Likud campaigns succeed? Violence leads to increased reliance on heuristics of force reliance and preservation of unity Elections: 1988 (1 st Intifada), 1996 (Hamas terrorism), 2001 & 2003 (height of 2 nd Intifada) (Berrebi & Klor, APSR 102, 2008) 1992, 1999, and 2006 perceived security was higher What about the 2009 elections?

Winograd Report Jan Gaza Operation Dec Tzipi Livni wins Kadima Primaries Aug Second Lebanon War (July- August) 2006

Likud 1977 Yahad 1984 Ometz 1984 Likud 2009 Kadima Shinui Center Party 1999 Israel our Home National Union Tehiya Tzomet Likud’s Splinter Parties