„Current Issues and Future Challenges and Perspectives of Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina“ Kemal Kozarić, Ph.D. Governor of the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina Session 4: “The Impact of the Euro Crisis on the Financial Stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Region” Workshop“The impact of Euro Crisis and Investment Opportunities in Bosnia and Herzegovina” May 11th, 2012, St Antony’s College, University of Oxford

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Where are we now? Where do we want to be in the future? Potential risks along the way Chances and opportunities 2

3 Bosnia and Herzegovina – Where are we now? (projection) Gross Domestic Product (GDP)EUR billion EUR billioncca. EUR billion GDP Per Capita3.271 EUR EUR Real Growth Rate0.7% 1.6%1.5% Industrial Production Growth Rate 1.6% 5.6%5% Average Inflation on Annual Level2.1% 3.7%3.0% BH Unemployment Rate27.2% 27.6 %28% Average Salary on BH Level408 EUR 417 EUR419 EUR Foreign DebtEUR 3.19 billion (25.2 % GDP) EUR 3.39 billion (25.6 % GDP)EUR 3.73 billion (27.2 % GDP) Current Account DeficitEUR 766 million (6.3% GDP) EUR 1.14 billion (8.6% GDP)EUR 766 million (GDP 4.1%) Imports Coverage52.1% 54.5%55% FDI (Estimate)EUR million EUR million Foreign ReservesEUR billion EUR billion

Where do we want to be in the future? Country wide consensus on joining the European Union and Euro-Atlantic integrations European legacy and history Strong economic ties with the EU members Strong benefits from joining the large European family experienced by other countries which recently accessed to it Stability and safety net provided by joint European institutions Our goal is to try to change the perception of our country abroad and to improve level of information available on our country 4

Potential risks along the way External risks Global economic downturn, especially slowdown in our main trading partners – impact on exporters and FDI Risks of spillover in the banking sector – 84% foreign owned Changes in neighboring countries – Croatia joining the EU and impact on foreign trade (positive and negative) 55 Internal risks Political stability – impact on perception of potential investors and on credit rating Speed of implementation of necessary structural reforms Large expansion of public expenditures in previous years endangered fiscal sustainability BH budget deficit needs to be controlled BH public debt needs to be monitored

Chances and opportunities There are realistic reasons for optimism, since Bosnia and Herzegovina has: 1.Skilled and educated labor with reasonable wages; 2.Large unused potential of the energy sector – only over 30% of all water resources are used up, significant potential in wind power; 3.Significant potential in the domain of organic food production; 4.Immense touristic potential; 5.Incomplete process of privatization in domains being attractive for potential investors (pharmaceuticals, telecommunication, wood industry, energy...) 6.Continuation of C5 corridor construction The most important precondition for future improvement is political stability. 6

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88 Thank you for your attention 8