Airpower Through The Post Cold War

Overview  Background to the Conflict  Iraqi threats  The Plan of Attack  Concept of Operations  Five Strategic Rings  Targets  Campaign Overview

Overview  Video Clip/Beyond the Wild Blue  Operation PROVIDE COMFORT/NORTHERN WATCH  Operation SOUTHERN WATCH  Operation PROVIDE RELIEF/RESTORE HOPE

Overview  History of the Balkans  Operation DENY FLIGHT  Operation ALLIED FORCE  Background  NATO Actions  Operation ALLIED FORCE Begins  Operation ALLIED FORCE  Lessons learned by U.S. Military  Political Lessons Learned  Impact of Lessons Learned on Future DOD Budget  CFD Review

Tito A Brief History  After World War II, monarchy abolished Communist Party leader Tito proclaimed the country the Federal People's Republic of Yugoslavia, with himself as prime minister  Eliminating opposition, the Tito government executed Mihajlovic in 1946  Tito died in 1980, and the fragility of the federation he ruled quickly became apparent

Three Ethnic Groups  Serbs - dominant in Yugoslavia's politics and army, orthodox Christianity makes them natural allies of Russia.  Croats - Roman Catholics, closer to the West than Serbs and exposed to Western influences  Muslims - living mainly in ethnically mixedtowns and cities in Bosnia - Herzegovina.

The Crisis in Bosnia  Oct 1992, UN Security Council Resolution 781, established a no-fly zone over Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Operation Deny Flight  Enforced the no-fly zone  Provided close air support to UN troops  Conducted approved air strikes under a "dual-key” command arrangement with the U.N.  28 Feb 94, NATO aircraft shot down four warplanes violating the no-fly zone over Bosnia-Herzegovina  This was the first military engagement ever undertaken by the Alliance.

The Crisis in Bosnia  NATO objectives  Bosnian Serb compliance to cease attacks on Sarajevo and other safe areas  Withdrawal of Bosnian Serb heavy weapons from the total exclusion zone around Sarajevo  Complete freedom of movement for UN Forces and personnel, and non-government officials  Unrestricted use of Sarajevo airport

The Crisis in Bosnia  NATO missions of Operation Deny Flight  To conduct aerial monitoring and enforce compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 816  To provide close air support to UN troops on the ground at the request of, and controlled by, UN forces.  To conduct approved air strikes against designated targets threatening the security of the UN-declared safe areas.

The Crisis in Bosnia  Operation Deny Flight lasted from 12 Apr 1993 to 20 Dec 1995  Almost 100,000 sorties flown  A formal closure ceremony was held in Vicenza, Italy on 21 Dec 1995  Forces associated with Operation Deny Flight were then transferred to Operation Decisive Endeavor -- as part of the overall NATO operation Joint Endeavor.

Bosnia Lessons Learned  Lack of doctrine  Tactical air and space power problems  Bases weren’t large enough to accept the contingency surges  Coalition/Joint problems  Technological problems

KOSOVO

Kosovo Crisis  Kosovo lies in southern Serbia and has a mixed population of which the majority are ethnic Albanians (Muslims)  Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic altered the status of the region, removing its autonomy and bringing it under the direct control of Belgrade, the Serbian capital  The Kosovar Albanians strenuously opposed the move

U.S. and NATO Interests at stake  Serb aggression threatened peace throughout the Balkans and the stability of NATO’s SE region  Belgrade’s repression in Kosovo created a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions  President Milosevic’s conduct directly challenged the credibility of NATO

NATO Action  After the failure of repeated international diplomatic efforts since the Spring of 1998 to peacefully resolve the conflict in Kosovo  North Atlantic Council decided on 23 March 1999 to authorize NATO air strikes  Aimed at strategic targets in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, to end the repression of Kosovar Albanians by the Yugoslav government.

NATO’s Objectives  A stop to all military action and the immediate ending of violence and repression;  The withdrawal from Kosovo of the military, police and paramilitary forces;  The stationing in Kosovo of an international military presence

NATO’s Objectives cont’d  The unconditional and safe return of all refugees and displaced persons  Establish political framework agreement for Kosovo in conformity with international law

Military Objective  “Degrade and damage the military and security structure President Milosevic has used to depopulate and destroy the Albanian majority in Kosovo” William Cohen, SECDEF 15 April 99

NATO Strategic Objectives  Demonstrate seriousness of their opposition to Belgrade’s aggression in Balkans  Deter Milosevic’s attacks on helpless civilians and reverse ethnic cleansing  Damage Serbia’s capacity to wage war against Kosovo

Lessons Learned on Kosovo War Objectives  U.S. Grand Strategy  Maintain a peaceful, prosperous U.S.-led Europe  Convince NATO to transition from old Cold War common defense against external threats to new Continental security coalition  Persuade NATO to acquire means and will to conduct “out of area” military ops European Strategy  Maintain a peaceful, prosperous & independent Europe  Prevent spillover into Albania & Macedonia,thence to Greece & Turkey  Maintain NATO relationship with Russia and give it a role in helping end the crisis  Demonstrate European unity Kosovo War Aims   Stop the Serbian slaughter & expulsion of ethnic Albanians   Remove Milosevic from power   Accomplish the above with minimal collateral damage and NATO casualties Common Effort Concealed Widely Differing Objectives

Lessons Learned by U.S. Military  U.S. air refuelers were stretched thin during the operation  Force structure “numbers” & resources are inadequate for current level of commitments (all services); Support and training as important to victory as strike  Older platforms with smart weapons may be seen as good enough, smart weapons may be better than smart platforms  Need the right force structure for the future  C4ISR is currently the weakest link in joint & coalition ops  On the brink of another hollow force

Political Lessons Learned by Europeans  Militarily, Europe remains dependent on Americans  Best technology, weapons & platforms “Made in U.S.A.”  Pols unwilling to pay the cost of matching unique U.S. capabilities  U.S. cannot always be counted on to serve the Alliance’s interests  U.S. focus shifted with opinion polls  Fear U.S. commitment could falter if U.S. forces take heavy casualties

Political Lessons Learned by Europeans (cont’d)  EU can provide diplomatic muscle (Martti Ahtisaari saves the day) Many foreign policy interests are similar among EU Nations  Refugee issue  Humanitarian (ethnic cleansing)  Threat of rising Islamic fundamentalism  Need to build external identity  Europe can overcome internal diversity to maintain cohesion  German Luftwaffe conducted first combat missions since 1945  Greece provided logistical support despite popular opposition  Italy and France (which have Communist ministers) offered air bases

Impact of Kosovo Lessons Learned on Future DOD Budget Trends  No DOD/Allied spending surge like post Desert Storm  International defense market continues to shrink  Readiness & Retention will increasingly consume $$$$ for Modernization  Inevitable Tax Cut legislation will further erode DOD budgets  Services must eventually deal with the bow wave  Old platforms with smart weapons were good enough  Congress may balk at big bills for new platforms(JSF, F-22, CVX, DD-21)  Support Forces will need big $$$$ too “We have to make a trade between smart weapons and platforms...We need to encourage the services to concentrate more on smart weapons.” Jacques Gansler “We have to make a trade between smart weapons and platforms...We need to encourage the services to concentrate more on smart weapons.” Jacques Gansler

Review of CFD Model  Distinctive Capabilities-Air and space expertise, capabilities, and technological know-how  Functions- Broad, fundamental, and continuing activities of air and space power  Doctrine- fundamental principles which military forces guide their actions in support of national objectives

CFD Model Time PeriodDistinctive Capabilities Functions (missions) Doctrinal Emphasis DESERT STORM  Air Superiority  Precision Engagement  Global Attack  Information Superiority  Agile Combat Support  Rapid Global Mobility  Strategic Attack  Air Refueling  Command and Control (C2)  Counterair  Surveillance and Reconnaissance  Strategic air attack (precision weapons/stealth)  Suppress enemy air defenses PROVIDE COMFORT/ NORTHERN WATCH  Rapid Global Mobility  Air Superiority  Airlift  Counter Air  Strategic attack  Surveillance and Reconnaissance  Protect northern Iraqi no fly zone  Humanitarian airdrops for refugees SOUTHERN WATCH  Precision Engagement  Air Superiority  Counter Air  Strategic attack  Surveillance and Reconnaissance  Theater attack, of military targets PROVIDE RELIEF/ RESTORE HOPE  Rapid Global Mobility  Global Attack  Air Superiority  Agile Combat Support  Surveillance & Reconnaissance  Counter Air/Land  Strategic Attack  Airlift/Special Operations  AEF concept  Strategic Attack  Humanitarian airdrops for refugees

CFD Model Time PeriodDistinctive Capabilities Functions (missions) Doctrinal Emphasis DENY FLIGHT  Air Superiority  Information Superiority  Agile Combat Support  Counterair  Surveillance and Reconnaissance  Counterland  No defined doctrine ALLIED FORCE  Air Superiority  Precision Engagement  Strategic Attack  Counterland  Intelligence  Strategic attacks on ethnic cleansing Serbs and military capabilities

Summary  Background to the Conflict  Iraqi threats  The Plan of Attack  Concept of Operations  Five Strategic Rings  Targets  Campaign Overview

Summary  Video Clip/Beyond the Wild Blue  Operation PROVIDE COMFORT/NORTHERN WATCH  Operation SOUTHERN WATCH  Operation PROVIDE RELIEF/RESTORE HOPE

Summary  History of the Balkans  Operation DENY FLIGHT  Operation ALLIED FORCE  Background  NATO Actions  Operation ALLIED FORCE Begins  Operation ALLIED FORCE  Lessons learned by U.S. Military  Political Lessons Learned  Impact of Lessons Learned on Future DOD Budget  CFD Review QUESTIONS ??

Airpower Through The Post Cold War