New Threats to Security Challenges and Responses Dr. Fred Tanner Geneva Centre for Security Policy

Structure of Presentation  What is security today?  Security Actors  Threat Assessments  Internationalisation of Policing  Role of governance and democratisation  Conclusions

What is Security?  Security as the absence of threats to core values survival survival welfare welfare identity identity how we choose to see ourselves (culture, values)how we choose to see ourselves (culture, values) how we choose to organise our lives (political and judicial institutions)how we choose to organise our lives (political and judicial institutions)

Traditional Understanding of Security  Whose security ? → State  Type of threat? → military → military  Origin of threat? → external (other States)  Response to the threat ? → increase in military power, unilaterally or through military alliances → increase in military power, unilaterally or through military alliances  Main security actors: → States → States → Defence ministries → Defence ministries → Military alliances → Military alliances

The New Security Environment  Whose security is important? States, regions, groups, individuals  What actors are important in discussing security: states, non-state actors, MNCs, multilateral organizations.  Where do threats come from in the contemporary security environment: terrorists, bandits, criminals, WMD  Are military threats still the most important focus in the analysis of security?: clearly not.  Most of the New Threats are not so much threats to the survival of the state, but to society and to individuals

Defence Deepening and Widening of Security Deepening and Widening of Security  Vertical StateSocietyHuman  Sectoral Health HealthEconomyEnvironment Poverty Poverty

DeepeningglobalregionalBroadening economicenvironment foodhealthetc. societalhuman

Societal security  Threats – not to “sovereignty” – but to the “identity” of a social group  Two examples: Ethno-national conflicts Ethno-national conflicts migration migration

Human security  People-centered security agenda: “freedom from fear”  Includes threats from a state against its citizens  Practical examples: Land mines Land mines Small arms Small arms Security sector reform Security sector reform Child soldiers Child soldiers Conflict goods (diamonds, etc.) Conflict goods (diamonds, etc.)

What Is Globalisation?  The processes whereby the peoples of the world are incorporated into a single world society (Albrow 1990)  The intensification of worldwide social relations linking distant localities such that local happenings are shaped by events far away and vice versa. (Giddens 1990)  Colonisation (Khor 1995)  A process that embodies a transformation in spatial organisation of social relations and transactions (Held 1999)  Processes whereby many social relations have become relatively de-linked from territorial geography, so that human lives are increasingly played out in the world as a single whole (Scholte 2002)

Security Actors

Actors in Global World States States MNCs MNCs Criminal Organisations Criminal Organisations Terrorists Terrorists Civil Society Civil Society Media Media Multilateral Institutions Multilateral Institutions The growth in numbersThe growth in numbers The multiplication of functionsThe multiplication of functions The expansion of powers to regulate interstate transactions and the internal policies of statesThe expansion of powers to regulate interstate transactions and the internal policies of states

New Security Actors within Governments  Interior/justice ministries  Finance ministries  Environment ministries  Energy ministries  Health ministries → Importance of inter-ministerial cooperation/coordination

Multilateral Security Actors  International Organisations - the UN and peace operations - specialised agencies  Regional Organisations - military operations - peace-building - multilateral police missions

Private Security Actors  NGOs  Multinational corporations  Transnational criminal networks  Terrorist groups  Private military companies

Threat assessments

Where Do Threats Come From?  Threats are multidirectional (from outside and from within)  There are increasing numbers of global threats (terror, crime, illicit migration, proliferation)  Natural threats are increasingly important

UN High Level Panel: “ (December 2004) UN High Level Panel: “ A more secure world: our shared responsibility” (December 2004) Poverty, infectious disease, environmental degradation Poverty, infectious disease, environmental degradation Inter-state Conflict Inter-state Conflict Conflict within states, including genocide and gross violations Conflict within states, including genocide and gross violations Nuclear, radiological, chemical, biological weapons Nuclear, radiological, chemical, biological weapons Terrorism Terrorism Transnational organised crime Transnational organised crime

Deadly cycle  Poverty, infectious disease (malaria, Aids, SARS) environmental degradation and war feed one another in a deadly cycle  Poverty is strongly associated with civil war  Disease and poverty are connected to environmental degradation (climate change)  Environmental stress caused by large populations and shortages of land and other natural resources can contribute to civil war

The link to globalisation  Many new threats involve transnational flows  Many involve transnational actors  The global nature of many threats draws into question the capacity of the state to do its job  Many newer states have little capacity to cope

European Security Strategy: “A Secure Europe in a Better World” (12 December 2003)  “Root causes” of conflicts Poverty, bad governance, weak institutions Poverty, bad governance, weak institutions  Terrorism  Proliferation of WMD  Failed states  International Organised Crime

NATO: Strategic concept 1999 “The last ten years have (…) seen the appearance of complex new risks to Euro- Atlantic peace and stability, including oppression, ethnic conflict, economic distress, the collapse of political order, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction”

NATO: Prague Summit 2002  Terrorism as strategic threat  WMD proliferation (including missile threats)  Instability in “Wider Europe”  “Cyber attacks”

US National Security Strategy “Enemies in the past needed great armies and great industrial capabilities to endanger America. Now, shadowy networks of individuals can bring great chaos and suffering to our shores for less than it costs to purchase a single tank” (National Security Strategy of the US, 2002)

Fears of EU citizens

Policy Responses

Implications for Policy responses  States must cooperate to fight global threats  Issues are interrelated e.g. money-laundering, trafficking in drugs and persons, and corruption. e.g. money-laundering, trafficking in drugs and persons, and corruption.  Security policy engages a larger number of actors within states (military, home affairs, police)  International efforts to stem the problem are only as strong as the weakest link.  New threats create an increasing and changing demand for institutions and for multilateral cooperation Institutional frameworks may need substantial reform Institutional frameworks may need substantial reform Current frameworks may not be appropriate ones for addressing the imperatives of security policy Current frameworks may not be appropriate ones for addressing the imperatives of security policy  Limited role of the use of force

Events such as Tsunami require Multi-dimensional Response  Local authorities (disaster relief, food, housing etc.)  NGOs and international organisations (ditto, protection of vulnerable persons [children], other forms of assistance)  Militaries (rescue operations, transport, etc.)  Private airline companies (transport)  Forensic teams (victim identification)

Blurring of Internal and External Security  Transnational challenges, such as cross-border organised crime or transnational terrorism → blurring of separation between internal and external security → convergence of police and military functions  Increasing involvement of military forces in domestic security missions (critical infrastructure protection, border control etc.)  Internationalisation of policing

Internationalisation of Policing  Law enforcement cooperation / information exchange  Global: Interpol  Regional, e.g.: - Europol - SECI Centre (Southeast European Co-operative Initiative Regional Centre for Combating Trans-border Crime)  Police missions in peace operations, e.g.: - IPTF (Bosnia) - EUPM (Bosnia) - UNMIK (Kosovo) - Proxima (Macedonia)

Interpol (International Police Organisation)  Established in 1923 (under the name International Criminal Police Commission [I.C.P.C.])  Headquarters in Lyon (since 1989)  181 member countries  Main purpose: enhance co-operation and information exchange between law enforcement agencies of member countries in the fight against international crime  No executive powers (does not conduct criminal investigations)

Europol (European Police Office)  Established in 1994  Focuses on all forms of serious crime. Main priorities are drug trafficking, illegal immigration/trafficking in human beings, counterfeiting of the euro and counter terrorism.  Main activities: - Information exchange - Provision of operational analysis in support of members states’ operations - Elaboration of strategic reports (threat assessments)  No executive powers (not ‘European FBI’)

SECI Centre, Bucharest  Established in 2000 in framework of Stability Pact  Regional focal point for information exchange on cross-border crime (human trafficking, drug trafficking, arms trafficking etc.)  15 liaison officers (police and customs officers) from 9 SECI countries  Participating States include: Albania, Bosnia- Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovenia, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey and Serbia and Montenegro

“Arc of reform” Risks vs benefits of democratisation  HLP: global values of HR, responsibility to protect  EU: externalisation of civilian and liberal model; belief in multilateralism  European neighbourhood policy (ENP)  Council: Policy of containment (terrorism, IOC, migration)  Commission: liberal and free market ideology  US “forward strategy of freedom” Democratic peace Democratic peace  Risk of “Algerian syndrome”

Conclusion  The broader the concept, the less useful to policy- makers and analysts  Security in a global world is as strong as its weakest link  Blurring between external and internal security has profound institutional and policy consequences  Regional responses (e.g. EU, NATO) are necessary but not sufficient  Emerging importance of law enforcement, declining importance of the use of force  Is total or absolute security possible?

Conclusion   In focusing on new threats and agendas, we should not ignore old ones in new forms The impartial socialization of the Russian Federation US unipolarity and alleged unilateralism The rise of new poles of power (China, Europe) The decay of old relationships