Integrated Visions for a Sustainable Europe Co-ordinating Team: Jan Rotmans Chris Anastasi Marjolein van Asselt Caroline van Bers Dale Rothman Sandra Greeuw Joanne Mellors Jasper Grosskurth Open Meeting of the Global Environmental Change Research Community Rio de Janeiro, October 6-8, 2001

THE VISIONS PROJECT European Commission: Directorate-General Research and Development Nine partner institutes across Europe Co-ordinator: ICIS Duration:

GOAL To develop challenging futures for Europe in an innovative, scientifically sound way on behalf of the social debate and strategic planning

RESEARCH PARADIGM Integrated Assessment (IA) is an interdisciplinary process of structuring knowledge elements from various scientific disciplines in such a manner that all relevant aspects of a societal problem are considered in their mutual coherence for the benefit of decision-making

INTEGRATING SCALES GLOBAL TRENDS EUROPEAN SCENARIOS P P P PP North West UK PP P P P REGIONAL SCENARIOS Venice Represents scenario Green Heart P INTEGRATED VISIONS

INTEGRATING SECTORS, FACTORS AND ACTORS Sectors energy water transport infrastructure Factors equity employment consumption behaviour environmental degradation Actors governmental organisations NGOs businesses scientists

INTEGRATING METHODS Participatory methods (workshops, focus groups, interviews, expert panels) Models (QUEST, Green Heart model, PHOENIX, Worldscan)

PARTICIPANTS Both European and regional stakeholder groups Representatives from: - government (regional, national, international) - science - business community - NGOs - media - free thinkers (artists esp.) - citizens

FORMS OF PARTICIPATION Storyline Workshops free format / predefined input larger group heterogeneous / homogeneous Focus Groups predefined input smaller group homogeneous In-depth Interviews predefined input individuals range of backgrounds

INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK Participatory element Analytical tools Interviews Participatory modelling Northwest-UK Model- supported REGIONS Story-lines Expert groups Envisioning workshops Data-based and Model- supported EUROPE WORLD Expert group Data collection & Trend analyses Green Heart Model- supported Tensions group Transitions, Cultural Theory & Models Venice Focus groups Interviews Narrative & ICT tools Story-lines Expert groups Envisioning workshops

EUROPE - APPROACH Storyline workshop with stakeholders In depth-work sessions Expert panel Use of existing models to illustrate trends with indicators

EUROPE Research Process Storyline workshop Aggregation Enriching Evaluation workshop Maturing Tensions workshop Screening Developing Rephrasing Linkages workshop Integration workshop StrengtheningIntegration Expert workshop PARTICIPATION DESK WORK

EUROPE Knowledge is King: What if the nature of technological development encourages local capacity building while it facilitates globalisation? Convulsive Change: What if climate change and other environmental problems are highly detrimental, outpacing society’s ability to adapt? Big is Beautiful?: What if the ‘merger principle’ not only affects major industries, but also deeply affects social, cultural, institutional and ecological patterns?

INTEGRATION PROCEDURE StorylinesImages Sectoral scenarios Storylines Scenarios Vision Scenario pairs Scenario quartet

SELECTION PROCEDURE Similarities and tensions in terms of: dynamics, management style, outlooks, driving forces. Combinations with the most emergent patterns from Europe - region interaction Every European scenario should appear at least once

INTEGRATED VISION Living on the edge Europe in transition Shadows of Europe Ltd.

Underlying scenarios: Europe: knowledge is king North-West UK: sustainable communities Green Heart: technology rules Venice: cyberia Dynamics Transition to high-tech society with a human face Coupled transitions: economy, technology, lifestyle, work, governance and demography European and regional developments strengthen each other Transition with the necessary problems

Characteristics Societal divide: ‘connected’ and ‘unconnected’ Mass migration from East Europe Societal battlefield: revolution of the unconnected Network-governance Large participation on all levels Co-existence of two groups Underlying scenarios: Europe: knowledge is king North-West UK: sustainable communities Green Heart: technology rules Venice: cyberia

UNIQUE FEATURES OF VISIONS Bottom-up and participatory Surprises Complexity Integrated (multi-scale and multi- domain)

The process of envisioning is at least as important as the the ultimate visions themselves WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? Communicating the messages resulting from the envisioning process is difficult.

Difficulties with engaging stakeholders availability interests recognisability credibility WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

Structure and composition of stakeholder group should determine the kind of participatory method to use WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? Future scenario exercises should be more stakeholder-oriented than purely stakeholder-driven

There is a big gap between the increasing complexity of our society and the analytical tools (IAmodels) that try to address this complexity IAModels only cover a small part of the required complexity WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

There is definitely a need for integrated visions (multi-scale, multi-domain, multi-perspective), but there are still hurdles to overcome WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

Participation and Modelling Transitions Uncertainty RESEARCH AGENDA

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