9-th Annual EFAS Meeting Lelystad, Netherlands 8-9 April 2014 EFAS Partner (Name of the partner) Report on floods in 2013 & feedback on EFAS alerts and products

9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands EFAS ALERTS/WATCHES IN 2013 Present briefly floods that happened in 2013:  EFAS alerts in 2013: 9  For Hungary: 3  For other countries in the Danube catchment above Hungary: 3  For other countries in the Danube catchment below Hungary: 3  EFAS watch in 2013: 19  For Hungary: 5  For other countries in the Danube catchment above Hungary: 9  For other countries in the Danube catchment below Hungary: 5  Missing alerts in 2013:  For Hungary: more than 15  For other countries in the Danube catchment above Hungary: more than 20  Other issues

EFAS FLOOD ALERT AND WATCH REPORTS Accuracy of the flood alert reportNumber of events affected Hungary (7/9) Appropriate alert1 False alert0 Appropriate alert, but wrong earliest peak forecast 2 Delayed alert report4 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands Accuracy of the flood watch reportNumber of events affected Hungary (14/19) Appropriate watch report2 False watch report3 Appropriate watch report, but wrong earliest peak forecast 4 Delayed watch report5

APPROPRIATE EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 (an example) Issued: March :07 EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary - Lower Koros section (Danube basin) from Friday 22 nd of March 2013 onwards. Lead time: within 6 days According to the latest forecasts ( UTC) up to 80% EPS (VAREPS) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 2% EPS (VAREPS) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period). Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is lower and the DWD deterministic forecast is comparable. The higher resolution COSMO-LEPS forecasts indicate lower risk for flooding than VAREPS. The earliest flood peak is expected for Sunday 24 th of March th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands Where? When? Earliest peak

Catchment of ’Körösök’ is appr km 2 Körösök 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands APPROPRIATE EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 (an example)

Water level exceeded the treshold of alert level 1, issued alarm was appropriate 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands APPROPRIATE EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 (an example)

FALSE EFAS WATCH REPORTS IN 2013 (an example) Issued: October :27 EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Romania - Mures, below Tirnava (Danube basin) from Wednesday 2nd of October 2013 onwards. Lead time: within 6 days According to the latest forecasts ( UTC) up to 100% EPS (VAREPS and COSMO) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 0% EPS (VAREPS and COSMO) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period). Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is comparable and the DWD deterministic forecast is comparable. The higher resolution COSMO-LEPS forecasts indicate the same risk for flooding than VAREPS. The earliest flood peak is expected for Thursday 3rd of October This message is only an EFAS FLOOD WATCH because - the time to peak is too close 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands Where? When? Earliest peak

Catchment of Maros/Mures is appr km 2 Maros/Mures 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands FALSE EFAS WATCH REPORTS IN 2013 (an example)

There was no flood, false alarm 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands FALSE EFAS WATCH REPORTS IN 2013 (an example)

APPROPRIATE ALERT, BUT WRONG EARLIEST PEAK FORECAST IN EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 (an example) Issued: March :28 EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary - Lower Koros section (Danube basin) from Tuesday 2 nd of April 2013 onwards. Lead time: within 5 days According to the latest forecasts ( UTC) up to 98% EPS (VAREPS) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 18% EPS (VAREPS) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period). Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is comparable and the DWD deterministic forecast is comparable. The earliest flood peak is expected for Sunday 7 th of April th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands Where? When? Earliest peak

Catchment of ’Körösök’ is appr km 2 Körösök 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands APPROPRIATE ALERT, BUT WRONG EARLIEST PEAK FORECAST IN EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 (an example)

Water level exceeded the treshold of alert level 3, issued alarm was appropriate not the 1 st peak from the 2 nd of April 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands APPROPRIATE ALERT, BUT WRONG EARLIEST PEAK FORECAST IN EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 – (an example)

DELAYED EFAS ALERTS/WATCH REPORTS IN 2013 (an example) THERE WAS NO ALERT FOR HUNGARY FOR THE DANUBE DURING JUNE! (Just a delayed watch on the 4 th of June from the same day) Issued: May :27 EFAS predicts a from medium to high probability of flooding for Austria - Danube (Danube basin, valid for downstream parts ) from Monday 3th of June 2013 onwards. Lead time: within 3 days According to the latest forecasts ( UTC) up to 94% EPS (COSMO) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 31% EPS (COSMO) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period). Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is higher and the DWD deterministic forecast is #lower/comparable/higher#. The higher resolution COSMO-LEPS forecasts indicate higher risk for flooding than VAREPS. The earliest flood peak is expected for Sunday 3 rd of June th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands Where? When? Earliest peak

DELAYED EFAS ALERTS/WATCH REPORTS IN 2013 (an example) 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands

DELAYED EFAS ALERTS/WATCH REPORTS IN 2013 (an example) 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands

MISSING EFAS ALERTS/WATCHES IN 2012/2013 February 2013 Sajó/Slana Catchment of Sajó/Slana is appr km 2 Rába/Raab Catchment of Rába/Raab is appr km 2 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands

MISSING EFAS ALERTS/WATCHES IN 2012/2013 February 2013 EFAS 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands

OTHER ISSUES related to the floods in 2013 that you want to bring up/report:  Issue 1:Legends, description of charts and tables on the homepage of EFAS should be much more detailed.  Issue 2: Controversial and incorrect data in the reports, such as: EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT ( :03) ’… EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary - Danube, section Zala - Drava (Danube basin) from Wednesday 5th of June 2013 onwards. …’ EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT ( :20) ’… EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Serbia - Danube, section Drau - Tisza, section Zala - Drava (Danube basin) from Wednesday 5th of June 2013 onwards. …’ EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT ( :20) ’… EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary, Serbia and Montenegro - Tisza, section Mures - Tamis and Tisa (Danube basin) from Wednesday 20th of March 2013 onwards. …’ EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT ( :42) EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Romania - Tisza, section Mures - Tamis (Danube basin) from Tuesday 9th of April 2013 onwards. 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands

Thank you for your attention! OVF Hungarian Hydrological Forecasting Service 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014 Lelystad, Netherlands