Index of Economic Activity for Humboldt County Tracking the Local Economy Since

Composite Index

Currently Sponsored By:

Sectors Electricity Consumption Employment Home Sales Hospitality Lumber-based Manufacturing Retail sales

Electricity Consumption Pacific Gas & Electric Company – Provides kilowatt-hours consumed in all market sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, etc.) – Quality of the data is excellent (100% correlation), but… – Data are received quarterly, so the Index’s sectoral value is estimated two out of three months – The series is updated as actual data become available – PG&E also provides data for natural gas consumption

Electricity Consumption

Employment Employment Development Department – Provides total county employment figures – Quality of data is excellent (100% correlation) – The Index reports preliminary numbers each month – The series is updated as revised data become available – EDD also provides employment levels by industry and the countywide unemployment rate

Employment The large drop in retail employment in late 2002 was due to a change in how EDD classifies this sector The drop in manufacturing employment was mitigated by the addition of classifications

Employment Major differences between the old classification system (SIC) and the new (NAICS): Retail (establishments no longer included) – Restaurants and Bars – Any retailer that also manufactures or alters product on site now listed under manufacturing (i.e., bakeries, tailors, furniture…) – Pawnshops Manufacturing (other added establishments) – Photocopying moved from Business Services Source: Census Bureau (

Home Sales Humboldt Association of Realtors – Provides number of existing homes sold – Quality of data is excellent (100% correlation), but… – New housing activity is not captured – HAR also provides sale price information and the Humboldt County Housing Affordability Index

Home Sales

From Jan 1998 – Apr 2003: – Typical Mortgage Payment has risen 30.8% – Typical Rent Payment has risen 30.9% This parallel movement suggests the increase in median home price over the past 5 years represents an actual gain in value

Home Sales From Jan 2000 – Dec 2002: – Real Median Home Price has risen 42.6% From 2000 – 2001: – Humb. Co. Real Per Capita Personal Income has fallen 0.2% Preliminary 2002 data suggest that real per capita personal income decline has continued

Home Sales Percentage of households that can afford to purchase the median priced home

Home Sales -Based on 2002 data from EDD, “median” mortgage payment of $ , “median” rent of $ The traditional standard is to devote no more than 30% of income to housing OccupationMedian Hourly Wage Gross Monthly Income % of Income Needed to Buy Median Priced Home % of Income Required to Pay Median Rent Child Care Worker $8.21$1, Firefighter , Janitor 9.371, LVN , Millworker , Police Officer , Retail Salesperson 8.691,

Hospitality We collect occupancy rate data from a small sample of hotel, motels and inns We tested our series against the similar series generated for the CA Division of Tourism…

Hospitality Does the price of gasoline have an effect on the local hospitality sector? If so, one would expect a negative correlation Positive 33.1% correlation Therefore, no discernible effect exists

Lumber-based Manufacturing We collect data on lumber shipped and payroll from a small sample of local firms We tested our series against data collected by the Board of Equalization

Lumber-based Manufacturing

Retail Sales We collect total sales data from a fairly wide variety of retailers We tested our series against data collected by the Board of Equalization

Retail Sales

Leading Indicators Lumber-based Manufacturing – Manufacturing Orders Home Sales – Building Permits Employment – Help-wanted Advertising – New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Manufacturing Orders We collect data from the participating firms We tested our manufacturing orders series against the following month of our manufacturing sector

Building Permits We collect counts of permits for new single-family residential construction from three local building departments We tested our series against data compiled by the Census Bureau (1996 – 2002, all Humb. Co. jurisdictions) – Quality of the data is poor – Correlation of –4.2% Additionally, building permits are not comparable to our home sales sector because one series counts new homes built while the other counts new and existing homes sold

Help-wanted Advertising The Eureka Times-Standard Classifieds – We count the number of ads appearing on the second and fourth Sundays of the month – Quality of the data is good, but… – Help-wanted advertising reflects only a portion of total activity in the employment sector – Correlation of the number of ads to the following month’s employment level is 51.6%

Help-wanted Advertising

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance Employment Development Department – Provides a count of new claims – Quality of the data is excellent (100% correlation), but… – Unemployment claims also only tells part of the story – Correlation of new claims to the following month’s employment level is –57.2%

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Humboldt County Employment Estimate A regression-based model using lagged employment, help- wanted advertising and unemployment claims data We’re able to post estimated activity one month before the EDD data are available We estimate roughly 600 jobs were added in May

Humboldt County Employment Estimate

Effectiveness of the Index Sector / Indicator Quality of Data Quality of Information Electricity ConsumptionExcellentGood EmploymentExcellentVery Good Home SalesExcellent HospitalityVery Good Lumber-based ManufacturingVery GoodFair Retail SalesVery GoodGood Manufacturing OrdersVery Good Building PermitsPoor Help-wanted AdvertisingVery GoodFair New Claims for Unemployment Insurance ExcellentFair Humboldt County Employment EstimateVery Good

Staff Since July 2003 – Professor Erick Eschker, Director – Jessica Digiambattista, Assistant Editor Garrett Perks, Assistant Analyst Before July 2003 – Professor Steve Hackett, Executive Director and co- founder (in 1995) – John Manning, Managing Director