‘Imagining 2020’: key demographics Cheshire & Warrington Sub-regional Conference 11 July 2014

Content What are the shared challenges? Where are we now? What can we do? Case study – alcohol use

What are the shared challenges? We’re changing Aging population Becoming heavier Drinking more Stress Result Increase in long term conditions Increased use of services Financial constraints Increased demand Services

Births ↓ 9.6% Deaths ↓ 9.0% Population342k371k ↑ 8.3% Smokers28%17% ↓ 40% Heart adm ↓ 10% Lung cancer ↑ 14% Bowel cancer ↑ 67% 374 Breast cancer ↑ 96% 481 Diabetics ↑ 309% Drug users ↑ 380% 1959 During the next twenty years there will be substantial rises in the number of people over 80, and fewer people aged 30 to 55 Example from Cheshire East

Implications of an aging population More dementia Increased cancer Increased comorbidity Loss of function

: Warrington In 2012, 6.8% adults estimated to have diabetes, by 2020, if current trends continue this could be 7.6% by 2030, 8.5%

44% rise in cancer over next 10 years (ageing and PREVENTABLE lifestyle factors) 13/15 th when compared to similar LAs Early detection of cancer may not be improving Challenge of Bowel Screening Cancer key facts- Cheshire East

Where are we now? April 2012 – the All Party Parliamentary Group on Primary Care & Public Health held a roundtable discussion on: Ten years on from Wanless, how “fully-engaged” are we? some success in meeting smoking cessation targets but a rise in other serious public health challenges (obesity, alcohol) huge reductions in treatment waiting times (although is this changing?) but GP consultation rates have risen as people still do not self-care no shift in resources out of hospitals no switch of activity from GPs to pharmacies we still do not have no good information to support personal decisions and the ability to have consistency of care ‘’ the rhetoric of engagement has risen – but paternalistic services continue and the public remains dependent on these’’

What can we do???? Move from cure to prevention People at the centre, instead of “what's the matter” ask “what matters to you” Healthy people, healthy place, healthy communities Healthy policy (health equity and health impact) Collaboration (service improvement, efficiency, resilience) Agree priorities for action

Case study: Alcohol MAKING THE MOST OF THE OPPORTUNITIES

Alcohol Use – Trends in Related Harm

Alcohol misuse harms families and communities (source: PHE)

Alcohol Use – The response (source: PHE)

The Response - Prevention (source: PHE)

The Response - Partnership (source: PHE)

Questions and comments ? Eileen O’Meara Director of Public Health and Public Protection Department Halton Borough Council / Runcorn Town Hall / Heath Road / Runcorn / Cheshire / WA7 5TD Tel :