Analytical Politics Melvin Hinich

1. Citizens have defined tradable property rights 2. A non corrupt judicial system that defends these property rights 3. Local governments with the power to tax for local public services 4. Competitive elections for the executive & legislative branches 7. Protection of civil rights including religious toleration 8. Many people understand how politics affects their interests & there is no something for nothing 6. A stable currency & a sound banking system A Stable Democracy Requires these 8 Attributes 5. A political balance between the executive & the legislature

A is preferred to B by One & Two Condorcet’s Counter Example B is preferred to C by One & Three C is preferred to A by Two & Three Majority rule can yield a cycle over the choices!

Agendas A versus B - the winner against C A versus C - the winner against B B versus C - the winner against A

Four Alternatives

Four Alternatives Agendas A versus B - the winner against C - the winner against D A versus B - the winner against D - the winner against C A versus C - the winner against B - the winner against D A versus C - the winner against D - the winner against B A versus D - the winner against B - the winner against C A versus D - the winner against C - the winner against B B versus C - the winner against A - the winner against D B versus C - the winner against D - the winner against A B versus C - the winner against A - the winner against D B versus D - the winner against A - the winner against C B versus D - the winner against C - the winner against A C versus D - the winner against A - the winner against B C versus D - the winner against B - the winner against A

Preference Model Voters have quadratic utility functions Voter v's quadratic utility for party p’s policy position Voter ideal position Party credibility score Weights -

Weighted Euclidean Preference

Latent Ideological Space 1 Issue positions cluster: If I know what you think on defense and environmental policy, I can guess what you think of school lunch subsidies. 2 Shared meaning: This clustering phenomenon is not purely atomistic, so that ideological positions such as “liberal” and “conservative” have similar meanings to different people. 3 Constraint: If the effective space of political conflict is “ideological” in the sense above, the strategies of candidates (and hence the choices for voters) in the policy space are highly constrained.

Communication: To provide voters with a message they can understand and use to make choices, parties must simplify their message. Because only broad statements of principles can be used in advertising and position-taking, the latitude for more subtle distinctions and differences is highly circumscribed. Ideological positions emerge for solving problems of uncertainty and lack of information. The space evolves as groups struggle to alter the status quo.

The Linear Linkage Model voter i’s ideal point in an issue space i’s perception of candidate p’s issue positions candidate p’s position in a 2D ideological space i’s perception of the status quo policies

Ideal Point on the Ideological Space Utility function

Linkage between the Latent Political Space & Issues

Private Poll

May 2009

Late October