What's new and what's special? The televised debates in the 2002 German election campaign Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

What was new in the 2002 German debates? Number of debates: Two debates Timing: 4 and 2 weeks before election day Length: 75 and 85 minutes Participants: Only two candidates Setting: Candidates standing, strict rules Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

Why are TV debates different from other forms of campaign communications? Audience size: Bigger audience than all other events Audience structure: Also undecided voters and opposing party "Free" format: Possibility to argue, not only sound-bites Confronting the opponent: Only format of direct interaction They generate large amounts of pre- and post-debate coverage (that also reaches those not watching the debate) Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

What are the effects of TV debates? During debate: Immediate reactions Post-debate: - Perceived "Winner" of the debate - Opinions about the candidates - Knowledge (e.g. about the state of the country) - Perceived winner of the coming election - Importance of candidates for voting decisions - Voting intentions Post-debate media coverage: see the above Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

The effects process triggered by TV-debates

Short-term effects: Immediate reactions during the debate (CRM) Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

7 Viewers’ evaluations of the candidates during the debate Mean of means of supporters of incumbent parties, opposition and undecided voters Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

8 What are the effects of … - Specific statements about candidates’ views and political plans. - Statements mentioning facts and figures (e.g. number of unemployed, economic situation) Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

9 Statements polarizing the political camps Mean CRM-score of supporters of incumbent parties and opposition Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

10 What are the effects of … - Statements arousing emotions - Commonplaces Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

11 Example: Emotionalizing a non-emotional issue Mean CRM of means of supporters of incumbent parties, opposition and undecided voters Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

Longer-term effects: Debate-induced opinion changes pre-debate – post-debate (Panel-Analysis) Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

13 Changes of viewers' opinions about the candidates More positive opinion (%) More negative opinion (%) SchröderStoiber Percentage of participants Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

14 Changes of the certainty of voting decisions 10 Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany more certain less certain Percentage of participants

15 Changes of the assessment of the state of the labour market Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

Long-term effects: Opinion changes immediately after the debate – five days after the debate Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

Statements 26/8 27/8 28/8 30/831/8 2/9 3/9 5/9 6/9 7/9 9/9 10/9 11/9 12/9 13/914/916/917/918/9 19/9 20/9 21/9 29/8 4/9 1. TV-debate 2. TV-debate Last parliamentary debate Number of statements Post-debate coverage: Focusing on the candidates Number of evaluative statements about the candidates four weeks prior to the election in four national newspapers (50% sample)

18 Changes of perceptions of who won the debate Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

19 Changes of opinions about the candidates Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

Suggestions for future debates: Independent organization Thinking about participants Discussing not more than 3-4 issues No media interventions in viewers’ opinion formation immediately after the debate