Chapter 9

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The Evolution of Campaigning  During election campaigns, political parties help structure voting choice  Successful campaigns need resources to acquire, analyze, and disseminate information  Voter interests  Campaign tactics  Candidate message  Voter turnout 3

The Evolution of Campaigning  Until 1950s, political parties ran most campaigns  Today’s candidates manage own campaigns  Races more candidate-centered  Must campaign for nomination as well as election  Parties help with funding and party label 4

Nominations  American political parties use elections to choose party nominees  In most other countries, party leaders choose nominees  In America, each state has own set of laws regarding party nominations  America puts large burden on voters 5

Compared With What?  Image of voter ballots for U.S. and British elections 6

Nomination for Congress and State Offices  All states use a primary election as all or part of the nomination process  Nomination process highly decentralized  Only half of regular party voters vote in a given primary  Many primary races have little or no competition 7

Primary Elections  Four types of primary elections:  Closed primaries  Open primaries  Modified closed primaries  Modified open primaries  Most scholars believe type of primary affects strength of party organizations 8

Nomination for President  Presidential candidates for each party chosen at national convention  Until 1960s, party delegates to national convention chose nominee  Since 1972, delegates have been chosen by complex process that includes the primary election and party caucuses 9

Selecting Convention Delegates  Different states and parties have different procedures for selecting delegates  States follow one of two basic formats:  Presidential primary  Presidential primary/caucus  Democratic selection proportional; Republicans “winner takes all” 10

Selecting Convention Delegates  Delegates selected openly back one of the presidential candidates  Primary elections and caucuses mean nominees’ names usually known before national conventions  Early primaries and caucuses result in “front-loading” 11

Changes in the Presidential Nominating Process Until 1968Since 1972 Party DominatedCandidate Dominated Few PrimariesMany Primaries Short CampaignsLong Campaigns Easy MoneyDifficult Fundraising Limited Media CoverageMedia Focused Late Decisions“Front-Loaded” Open ConventionsClosed Conventions 12

Campaigning for the Nomination  A complex, drawn-out process  Invisible primary  Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary viewed as testing grounds  In 2008, narrowed field to five Republicans and seven Democrats  “Super Tuesday” resulted in one Republican and two Democrats with the most support by voters 13

“Only in America” Marvels the World 14

Campaigning for the Nomination  John McCain set as Republican nominee after Super Tuesday  Democratic contest not settled until June 7 th 15

Consequences of Presidential Campaigns  Races with no incumbents contested in both parties  Incumbent presidents usually face little opposition  Iowa and New Hampshire do matter  Candidates favored most by party identifiers usually win nomination  Winners owe little to national party organization 16

Figure 9.1 From Many to Two: Presidential Hopefuls Starting and Dropping Out 17

Elections  By national law, all seats in House of Representatives and 1/3 of seats in Senate elected every two years in general election  State and local offices also on ballot  President chosen every 4 th year in presidential election  Non-presidential elections congressional, mid-term, or off-year elections 18

Presidential Elections and the Electoral College - video  Presidency not automatically given to person with the most votes in the general election  General election selects electors who then select president  States receive one elector for each House and Senate seat  Washington, D.C. also receives three electors 19

The Electoral College  Candidate must have a majority of electoral votes (270) to win presidency  If no candidate receives majority, decision on president made by the House; Senate chooses vice president  Each state has one vote  Has only happened in 1800 and

Figure 9.2 Populations Shifts and Political Gains and Losses Since

The Electoral College: Politics  Prior to 1860, most electors chosen by state legislatures  After 1860, electors chosen by popular vote  All states but Maine and Nebraska award electors “winner takes all”  Election in 2000 came down to Florida’s electoral votes 22

Figure 9.3 How America Votes 23

The Electoral College: Abolish It?  Over 700 proposals to abolish electoral college introduced in Congress over the years  Electoral vote system allows states to decide how electors chosen – a federal system  Many voters appear to prefer nationwide direct popular vote  Grover Cleveland (1888) and George W. Bush (2000) elected despite losing popular vote 24

Figure 9.4 The Popular Vote and the Electoral Vote 25

Support for the Electoral College  Generally, results from electoral vote system magnify popular vote results  Electoral college is a federal election system:  Allows small states to have more weight in process  Campaigns carried out via personal contact versus the large market media  Nationwide recounts not needed 26

Congressional Elections  Candidates for president listed at top of ballot, with other national, state, and local offices below  Voters can vote straight ticket or split ticket  between 15% and 30% of voters choose president from one party and congressional candidates from the other  Can result in divided government 27

Congressional Elections  Democrats basically in power until 1994  Winners from single member districts are candidates with the most votes  “First-past-the-post” elections  Districts drawn by the party in power and usually benefit dominant party  President’s party generally loses seats in mid-term elections 28

Figure 9.5 Presidential Popularity and Party Seat Loss/Gain 29

Campaigns: The Political Context  Most important structural factors in campaign planning:  Office sought  Whether incumbent or challenger  Non-incumbents more successful in open elections  More populous and/or diverse districts mean more expensive campaigns  Party preference of electorate also important 30

Financing  Quality of campaign organizations a function of money  However, money alone does not ensure success  “There are four parts to any campaign. The candidate, the issues of the candidate, the campaign organization, and the money to run the campaign with. Without money, you can forget the other three.” -- former House Speaker Thomas (“Tip”) O’Neill 31

Regulating Campaign Financing  State and federal governments regulate campaign financing  Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) passed in 1971  Amendments in 1972 created Federal Election Commission (FEC)  Limits on political action committee (PAC) contributions – both soft and hard money  After court challenges, 1974 FECA governed elections for about 30 years 32

Regulating Campaign Financing  Increases in campaign contributions and spending led to Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) in 2002  Limits on contributions by individuals  Banned soft money contributions to political parties  Allowed 527 committees to spend unlimited amounts for media, with some limits  2007 Supreme Court ruling struck down ban on issue ads before elections  New committees formed – 501(c)4 social welfare organizations  2010 Supreme Court ruling overturned ban on corporate contributions to candidates 33

Public Financing of Presidential Campaigns  Both FECA and BCRA provided for public financing for presidential campaigns  Subject to spending limits  Until 1996, all eligible candidates used public funds for primary elections  Since 1996, more and more candidates refusing public funds for primaries  Funding for general election follows different rules; most candidates used until

Private Financing of Congressional Campaigns  Candidates for national office raised over $3 billion during the primary and general elections  Obama raised almost $750 million  McCain raised almost $370 million  Congressional candidates raised almost $1.4 billion 35

Future Trends in Campaign Finance  Public funding faces uncertain future  Major candidates can raise more money on their own  Contribution bundlers  Internet fundraising  BCRA limited soft money but not amounts raised for presidential campaigns 36

Strategies and Tactics  Strategies are broad approaches to campaigns  Party-centered strategies  Issue-oriented strategies  Candidate-oriented strategies  Strategies must take into account political context 37

Pollsters and Political Consultants  Well-funded campaigns buy “polling packages”  Benchmark poll  Focus groups  Trend polls  Tracking polls  Information gathered then used to tailor campaign to current political situation 38

Making the News  News coverage valuable because it’s free and seems objective to the public  Incumbents have advantage  News coverage frequently limited to “sound bites”  Horse-race metaphors limit attention to issues: bandwagons, losing ground, the front-runner, and the likely loser 39

Advertising the Candidate  Main objective for campaigns ads: name recognition  Voters may not recall name but recognize on a list, such as a ballot  Must also point out virtues of candidate  Campaign ads also sometimes attack opponent or play on emotions  Majority of ads use electronic media 40

Advertising the Candidate - video  Recent years’ ads tend to mention personal characteristics rather than policy preferences  Negative ads can be either attack ads or contrast ads  Media sometimes report controversial ads as news  Candidates must “approve” message in their ads; independent groups do not 41

Using the Internet  Use started in 1992 with to supporters  Democrats pioneered Internet usage in election campaigns, both to raise funds and mobilize supporters  Also use social networking sites, blogs, and YouTube  Internet inexpensive way to quickly contact supporters, but TV still best way to reach average voters 42

Explaining Voting Choice  Long-term forces predispose voters to choose certain types of candidates  Party identification most important  Short-term forces associated with particular elections  Combination of candidates and policy positions on current issues 43

Party Identification  Over half of electorate decides candidate before party conventions  Early decisions generally vote based on party identification  Each candidate in 2008 received 90% of vote of self-described partisans  Independents generally favored Obama  Republicans have won more elections due to lack of Democratic voter turnout and other short-term factors 44

Figure 9.6 Effect of Party Identification on the Vote,

Hopes Fulfilled 46

Issues and Policies  Candidates exploit issues that seem to be important to voters  Incumbent’s record versus problems pointed out by challenger  Even with no incumbent, that party’s candidate may be tied to outgoing president 47

Hopes Dashed 48

Candidates’ Attributes  Attributes important because most voters lack information about candidates’ past performance and policy stands  Stereotypical thinking may play into some voters’ decisions 49

Evaluating the Voting Choice  Party identification and candidate attributes not basis for voting according to democratic theory  Citizens should vote based on past performance and proposed policies  However, all are factors when developing statistical models to explain voting  Historically, attributes and party identification most important 50

Evaluating the Voting Choice  Recent studies show increase in policy- based voting  Relationship between party identification and voters’ positions on issues more distinct today  Alignment between party and ideology almost perfect in congressional voting 51

Campaign Effects  While campaign may not cause change in party identification, can influence enough votes to change outcome of election  Television ads main method for transmitting candidates’ message  Battleground states key  Presidential campaign in 2008 most expensive ever  No major candidate took federal matching funds in primary; only McCain in general election 52

The Americanization of Campaigns 53

The Presidential Debates  First televised debate in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon  In 1976, televised debates began airing regularly  Presidential and vice-presidential debates in 2008 election led to rise in support for Obama in election polls 54

Campaigns, Elections, and Parties  Party organizations not central to elections in America  Both parties follow majoritarian model by formulating different party platforms and pursuing announced policies when in office  Weak connection between party platform and voters during campaigns and elections  Party platforms do not play major role in elections, especially those for House and Senate seats 55

Parties and the Pluralist Model  The way parties operate in America more like pluralist model  Function as two giant interest groups  Parties prefer candidates who support party platform  However, candidates operate as entrepreneurs, and may vote against party leadership  Stronger parties might be able to better coordinate government policies after elections 56