Elections and Campaigns

Elections Opportunity to choose who controls government Citizens’ main official input LegitimacyAccountability Retrospective voting Prospective voting

Elections And Accountability Candidates are motivated by electoral success Elected officials wish to continue to hold office Ensures at least some responsiveness Move towards center Balancing act

Elected Offices Federal President President Congress CongressState Governor Governor State Legislature State Legislature Judges (sometimes) Judges (sometimes) Local Elections County Boards Mayor City Council School Boards Other offices

Types of Election General Election Primary Election Open Open Closed Closed Non-Partisan Non-Partisan

Referenda and Recall ReferendumInitiative May Increase Responsiveness Majority Tyranny? ConfusionRecall In Many States for certain offices In Many States for certain offices Not at federal level Not at federal levelRetention

Presidential Primaries Select delegates for national convention Winner take all Winner take all Proportional representation Proportional representationCaucus Trend towards more primaries and more open caucuses

Voting in primaries Open Primary Closed Primary More democratic? Extremism? Primary voters more partisan

Primaries Used to select convention delegates Divisive Primaries Can Hurt Early vs. Late Convention Battle Choice of VP More conflict->less chance

Primaries Front Loading E.g. New Hampshire, Iowa Momentum Increases Importance of Small States Increases Importance of fundraising Benefits Front Runner Quality of Candidates Regional Primaries E.g. Super Tuesday E.g. Super Tuesday

Conventions Early- Party Control Uncommitted delegates Conflict

Conventions Delegates selected by primaries Democrats- Proportional Representation Delegates- more ideological extreme, more elite than average

Conventions- Functions No Longer Key to choosing candidate Announce VP Vote on platform stating party principles Advertisement Post convention bounce

Electoral College Low profile Original intent- overcome lack of information Representation=house+senate Early- cast two votes, winner is president, runner up VP 12 th amendment- Shift to 2 separate votes Today, varying degrees of delegate discretion If no majority winner, decided in house

Electoral College Can distort Results Usually, Popular winner wins by greater margin Popular winner can lose 2000 Bush wins Bush wins Without Florida, Gore Wins Without Florida, Gore Wins If Kerry had won Ohio, would have lost popular vote, won presidency If Kerry had won Ohio, would have lost popular vote, won presidency

Reforming Electoral College Count at district level Abolish elector discretion Abolish college

Congressional Elections Coattails Incumbency advantage Midterm elections Low turnout President’s party Usually loses seats

Counting Votes US- First Past the Post Plurality System May Minimize representation of minority opinions Partly responsible for 2 party politics Proportional representation Assign seats in proportion to total vote De-emphasizes individuals, emphasizes parties

Voter Behavior Two Key Issues Decision to participate Decision whom to vote for

Turnout Voting one form of political participation Lowest “cost” of participation Decision to vote a function of perceived benefit, probability of influencing outcome, cost of voting V=P(B)-C Doesn’t have to be explicit Most reasons people don’t vote fit into P, B, or C

Reasons for not voting Inconvenience (cost) One vote doesn’t matter (probability) Little difference between parties (benefit)

Reforms To Increase Turnout Motor Voter (1992) Easier Absentee voting National Holiday 2 Day voting

Who Doesn’t Vote? Those less interested in politics Young Less Educated Lower Income Blacks?Why? Job Flexibility Lack of Efficacy Lack of Civic Skills?

Non voting- Does it matter? No- Sign of general satisfaction No- curbs radicalism No- Sends message of dissatisfaction Yes- Winners will claim mandate anyway Yes- Opinions of non-voters very different from those of voters Yes- weakens system

What determines the vote? Long term predispositions Party Identification As a social grouping As a heuristic Ideology Ticket Splitting

What determines the vote? Demographic factors Race Blacks- Heavily Democratic Whites- Slight tilt Republican Asian/Latino- Mixed GenderIncomeEducationReligion

What determines the vote? Short term forces Issues Single issue voters Issue ownership Issue salience

What determines the vote? The economy RetrospectiveProspectivePocketbookSociotropic Most Important- Prospective Sociotropic Economy and prediction

What Determines the vote? CandidatesTraitsLeadershipStrengthCompetenceCompassion/empathyInsider/outsiderExperience

What determines the vote? The media PrimingImage Horse race

What determines the vote? Campaigns Public Appearances SpeechesDebatesSpinMisstepsAdvertising

General Campaign Turn out supporters Convert swing voters Target certain states Swing States Electoral College Votes Public Appearance

Campaign and the Media The Message Sound Bytes Campaign handlers Spin Horse race coverage Debates

Advertising Largest Campaign expenditure Narrowly or Broadly targeted Usually short spots IssuesImagesAttack

Negative advertising Widely despised May be effective Issue content Turnout Iyengar- Demobilizes voters Others- No effect on turnout, or even slight increase Stevens- Mobilization depends on expertise Backlash Interest Groups Free exposure