The Presidential Election Cycle in the U.S.A.

What are elections like in America? 3 kinds: regional/local, congressional, Presidential (est. 80,000 different kinds of elections in America / year) 2 kinds in a Presidential election: Primary-Caucus elections—contests within a party General election—contest between a party

League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund Steps in the Process 1. Campaigning and fundraising--throughout 2. Caucuses and Primaries 3. Political party conventions 4. Election Day 5. Vote of the Electoral College League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund

The “Time for a Change” factor in presidential elections Political Scientist Alan I. Abramowitz: “Since WW II there have been 7 presidential elections in which a party had held the White House for just one term. The incumbent party's candidate won 6 out of 7 (only Carter lost) with an average popular vote margin of 11.6 percent. There have been 8 elections in which a party had held the White House for two terms or more. The incumbent party's candidate won only 2 and lost 6 with an average popular vote margin of -0.9 percent.” “… there is about a 5 point penalty if you've held the White House for 8 years or longer”

Two Kinds of Campaign Issues Position issues (crunchy elections) rival candidates have opposing views, voters are divided and a partisan realignment may result Position issues in 2000: social security, defense, public school choice systems Valence issues: (squishy elections) candidate supports the public, widely held view Dominated the 1996 election Increasingly important because television leads to a reliance on popular symbols and admired images

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Many Democrats seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The Ring” Many Republicans seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Many Democrats seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses Primaries & caucuses held in each state Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008) New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008) Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The Ring” Many Republicans seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Many Democrats seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses Obama secures the nomination Primaries & caucuses held in each state Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008) New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008) Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The Ring” Many Republicans seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses McCain secures the nomination

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Many Democrats seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses Obama secures the nomination Obama selects Biden as his running mate Primaries & caucuses held in each state Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008) New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008) Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The Ring” Many Republicans seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses McCain selects Palin as his running mate McCain secures the nomination

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28, 2008) Parties Hold National Conventions Develop the party platform Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally) Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28, 2008) Parties Hold National Conventions Develop the party platform Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally) Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced Candidates campaign against each other and debate the issues Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28, 2008) General Election 1st Tues. after the 1st Mon. in Nov. (Nov. 4, 2008) The “popular vote” is conducted Eligible citizens vote for the “electors” for Obama & McCain Parties Hold National Conventions Develop the party platform Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally) Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced Candidates campaign against each other and debate the issues Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Obama: 69,456,897 Popular Votes Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28, 2008) General Election 1st Tues. after the 1st Mon. in Nov. (Nov. 4, 2008) The “popular vote” is conducted Eligible citizens vote for the “electors” for Obama & McCain Parties Hold National Conventions Develop the party platform Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally) Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced Candidates campaign against each other and debate the issues McCain: 59,934,814 Popular Votes Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Obama: 365 Electoral Votes Electoral College Votes 1st Mon. after the 2nd Wed. in December (Dec. 15, 2008) Electors vote at their respective state capitols Must receive 270 votes to win Usually just a formality, the results are not in doubt McCain: 173 Electoral Votes

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Obama: 365 Electoral Votes Electoral College Votes 1st Mon. after the 2nd Wed. in December (Dec. 15, 2008) Electors vote at their respective state capitols Must receive 270 votes to win Usually just a formality, the results are not in doubt Inauguration Occurs Jan. 20 at 12:00 (noon) Sworn-in by the Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court McCain: 173 Electoral Votes

League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund Narrowing the Field During and after the primary elections, many candidates are forced to drop out because of lack of support. National conventions serve to nominate their party’s candidate for president and vice president. League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund

League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund National Conventions Delegates attend the National Conventions to cast their votes for a candidate. Democratic Party Convention August 25, 2008 in Denver, CO Republican Party Convention September 1, 2008 in St. Paul, MN Candidate with a majority of delegate votes wins that party’s nomination for President. Vice Presidential candidates are chosen by the Presidential nominee and are nominated at the National Convention. League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund

Republican Party Convention 2,439 delegates are selected by state primaries to the winning candidates 662 delegates are unpledged. The convention floor will seat approximately 5,500 delegates and alternates. League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund

Democratic Party Convention 3,515 pledged delegates selected by primary voters and caucus participants 852 unpledged delegates, known as superdelegates (DNC members, Members of Congress, Governors, and other important people in the party. Pledged delegates are allocated among the states in rough proportion to the votes each state gave the Democratic candidate in the last three Presidential elections and the percentage of votes each state has in the Electoral College. League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund

Changes for the better? Why Iowa and New Hampshire? Small populations = personalized campaigning 1968: 15 primaries spread from March through June 2008: 40 primaries in a 2 month span (the problem of frontloading) Super-Disaster Tuesday! Steamroller effect: winner of the 1st primary wins the other bunched-up primaries

How do people vote? “It’s the economy, stupid!” V. 0. Key: most voters who switch parties do so in their own interests They know what issues affect them personally. They have strong principles about certain issues (abortion, etc.). Prospective voting is used by relatively few voters. Those voters know the issues and vote accordingly. Most common among activists and special interest groups

How do people vote? Retrospective voting practiced by most voters, and decides most elections Judge the incumbent’s performance and vote accordingly Have things gotten better or worse, especially economically? Reagan in 1980 debate Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996 Usually helps incumbent.., unless economy has gotten worse Midterm elections: voters turn against president’s party 2002 exception (war)

Debates Usually an advantage only to the challenger Reagan in 1980: reassured voters by his performance 1988 primary debates with little impact on voters

VIDEO #1: Schoolhouse Rock

How does California select its electors? On or before October 1 of the presidential election year, each party's nominee must file a list containing the names, addresses, and telephone numbers of the 55 electors pledges to him/her. Each party determines its own method for selecting electors. No incumbent Senators, congressional representatives or persons holding an office of trust or profit of the United States can serve as electors. What happens if the electoral vote is a tie? The House of Representatives makes the decision with each state having one vote. Representatives of at least two-thirds of the states must be present for the vote. If they cannot decide by March 4, then the Vice President become President and the person receiving the largest number of Vice President votes becomes Vice President.

Article 2 Section 1 of the United States Constitution directs that “no Senator or Representative, or person holding an office of trust or profit under the United States, shall be appointed an elector. “

2008 Pennsylvania Certificate of Ascertainment of Presidential Electors http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2008-certificates/

There are a total of 538 electoral votes (the District of Columbia is not a state but is given 3 electoral votes)

48 out of the 50 states have a “winner takes all” method If you get the most votes in that state you get ALL of their electoral college votes

2 states are different and can divide up their votes based on congressional district - Nebraska and Maine

Does the EC influence campaigns?

It is possible to get more votes overall in the election from the entire country and NOT be elected President Happened in 2000 with Gore vs Bush

Total Votes in 2000 Election: Bush 50,461,092 total votes (47.9%) 271 Electoral Votes Gore 50,994,086 total votes (48.4%) 266 Electoral Votes Nader 2,882,728 total votes (2.7%) 0 Electoral College Votes

How can the winner lose?

VIDEO # 2: Disney Productions

Effects of Election on Policy Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in 1945 and 1951. Conclusion: Many American elections do make differences in policy, though constitutional system generally moderates the pace of change.