The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime By john J. Donohue & Steven D. Levitt Presented by Ming Liu

Introduction Drop in crime rate in 1990’s Drop in crime rate in 1990’s Explanations for the drop in crime Explanations for the drop in crime The relationship of legalization of abortion and the drop in Crime The relationship of legalization of abortion and the drop in Crime

Structure of the Paper Brief history of abortion Brief history of abortion The relationship of legalization of abortion and the drop in crime The relationship of legalization of abortion and the drop in crime Empirical evidence Empirical evidence

Brief Overview of the History of Legalized Abortion The 1st law restricting abortions, 1828 The 1st law restricting abortions, 1828 Abortion became illegal throughout the country, 1900 Abortion became illegal throughout the country, 1900 The 1st modest effort at abortion liberation, The 1st modest effort at abortion liberation, Legal abortion in five states, 1970 Legal abortion in five states, 1970 Legal abortion extended to the entire US, 1973 Legal abortion extended to the entire US, 1973 –Roe v. Wade

Figure 1:Total Abortions by Year

The Mechanism By Which Abortion Legalization Lowers Crime Rates Through smaller cohort size Through smaller cohort size Abortion has negative effect on the births of those who are most at risk of engaging in criminal behavior Abortion has negative effect on the births of those who are most at risk of engaging in criminal behavior –Unwanted births and bad maternal background –Optimize the timing of childbearing

Empirical Evidence on Legalized Abortion Affecting Crime Rates

Figure 2: Crime Rates from the Uniform Crime Reports,

Figure 3: National Crime Victimization Survey,

Effective_Abortion t =Abortion t-a *(Arrest a /Arrest total ) Effective Legalized Abortion Rate

Figure 4a: Changes in Violent Crime and Abortion rates,

Figure 4b: Changes in Property Crime and Abortion rates,

Figure 4c: Changes in Murder and Abortion rates,

Exclude outlier states

The Impact of Abortion on Arrests by Age of Offender

TABLE VI The Impact of Abortion Rates on Arrests by Age (All Values in the Table are Coefficients on the Effective Abortion Rate (x100), Other Coefficients are Not Reported)

Conclusion Legalized abortion reducing the crime rate Legalized abortion reducing the crime rate Crime rates will continue to fall because of the legalized abortion Crime rates will continue to fall because of the legalized abortion

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