CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST Maps & graphs courtesy Dr. Kelly Redmond Regional Climatologist/Deputy Director Western Regional Climate Center Desert.

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Presentation transcript:

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST Maps & graphs courtesy Dr. Kelly Redmond Regional Climatologist/Deputy Director Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno, Nev.

spaceweather.com 2008: 266 of 366 days, No sunspots. Most spotless days since 1913 with 311 days through May 2: 117 days (87 pct of year). Typical solar min: 485 spotless days. This solar min thru May 2: 617 spotless days.

Annual Winter Summer IPCC 2007 T (C) P (%) Agree ? Thanks to Phil Mote Late 21st

Seager et al, Average of 19 climate models. Figure by Naomi Naik.

R. Seager, M.F. Ting, I.M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez, N. Naik, Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, DOI: /science Average of 19 climate models Figure by Gabriel Vecchi. es/div/ocp/drought/scienc e.shtml 21 Years From 2009

Annual Temperature Trend National Temperature Trend by Season The Last 30 Years Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual

United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

Thru Dec 2008 NOAA National Climatic Data Center

The World’s Warm Oceans

Through March 2009 “El Nino” “La Nina” NOAA ESRL (“CDC”), Wolter and Timlin

Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C ) 2009 May NOAA ESRL (“CDC”)

Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures Updated through 2009 May 24-30

Sep 28, 1999 Sep 26, 2000Sep 25, 2001 Sep 24, 2002Sep 30, 2003 Sep 21, 2004

Sep 27, 2005Sep 26, 2006Sep 25, 2007 Sep 30, 2008Jun 02, 2009

Lake Powell Storage Through June 4, 2009 Currently 62 % full (capacity MAF) Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005

Lake Powell Elevation Through June 4, 2009 Water level on Apr 17, 2009 was ft, - 69 ft below full. Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full. Source:

Water Year 2008 Oct 1 Thru 2009 Jun 4

Water Year 2008 Oct 01 Thru 2009 May 01

May 2009

Historical Climatology Network – Modernized Survey Progress as of 2009 June 8

Western Basins Water Year Precipitation from Snotel Stations Percent of Average 2008 October 01 thru 2009 June 05

Western Basins Snow Water Content from Snotel Stations Percent of Average 2009 June 05

or (select Westmap)

Time Series Monthly Fixed temperature Fixed height Pct precip as snow Daily Fixed temperature Fixed height Maps Monthly / Daily Fixed temperature. Mean / departure Fixed height Mean / departure Product Setup Graph parameters Period / duration Color scheme Absolute vs departure Select type of product, set up display parameters, select location for time series or domain for map.

? ? ? Is the current Southwest drought a once-or-twice-a-century drought like those of the past 500 years … ? … or … a harbinger of things to come, a different type of drought that we have not observed before ?