Trends in Electric Rates in the Midwest by Charlie Higley Citizens Utility Board of Wisconsin for Energy Utility Basics Wisconsin Public Utility Institute October 3, 2012

2 Overview What is CUB? What Are Electricity “Sales”? Declining Electricity Sales –Trends for U.S., Wisconsin Determining Electric Rates Drivers for Wisconsin Electric Rate Increases Midwest Electricity Rates 1997 to 2011

3 3 Citizens Utility Board Member supported nonprofit organization; 9,000 members statewide. Represents residential and small business customers. Intervenes in utility rate cases, proposals for new power plants, power lines. Five full-time staff, $900,000 annual budget. Saved Wisconsin ratepayers $2 billion since Please Join! or x.

4 Definition of Electricity Sales Electricity “sales” –the number of units of electric energy sold in a period of time. –e.g. number of kilowatt-hours sold in one year. –For We Energies, 2011 total retail sales in Wisconsin were 27,163,986,000 kWh.

Declining Electricity Sales: United States 5

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Declining Electricity Sales: United States (cont.) 7

8 Declining Electricity Sales: Wisconsin

9 Declining Electricity Sales: Wisconsin (cont.)

Sales in 2012 versus U.S. sales (thru June) are 2% less than WI sales (thru June) are 0.5% more than

Declining Sales Can Lead to Higher Rates Declining sales means fewer kilowatt-hours to recover operating expenses, therefore, rates go up, all else equal. –Rates = operating costs/sales = $/kWh –Assume sales will decline by 5.0 percent next year. –Assume operating costs remain the same for next year. –Rates have to increase 5.26 percent to recover operating costs. 11

12 Determining Electric Rates To determine rates for 2013, a utility: –forecasts annual kWh sales for 2013 –calculates 2013 revenues using 2012 rates –estimates 2013 costs of doing business (expenses) –estimates rate base –calculates earned rate of return –compares with “approved” rate of return –determines revenue deficiency –increases 2013 rates to cover revenue deficiency

13 Fewer Sales, Same Costs = Rate Increase forecast of kWh sales in 2013 revenue using 2012 rates estimate 2013 expenses calculate operating income (aka earnings or profit) estimate rate base calculate earned rate of return compare with “approved” ROR determine earnings deficiency determine revenue deficiency increase rates to make up revenue deficiency 29,000,000,000 kWh (29B kWh)($0.1) = $2.9 billion $2.7 billion operating inc. = revenues – expenses $200M = $2.9B - $2.7B rate base = $3.5 billion ROR = $200M/$3.5B = 5.7% approved ROR = 9.5% approved earnings = (9.5%)($3.5B) = $334M earn. def. = $334M - $200M = $134M rev. def. = ($134M)(1.7 tax factor) = $223M rate increase = $223M/$2.9B = 7.7%

14 Wisconsin Residential Electric Rates

Wisconsin Electric Rates: Other Drivers for Rate Increases Wisconsin electric rates 1997 thru 2011: –Residential: 90 % increase –Commercial: 86 % increase –Industrial: 97 % increase Main drivers: –New power plants: $7.5 billion since 2004 –New transmission lines: $2.5 billion since 2001 –New pollution controls: $2.1 billion since 2000 –Fossil fuel prices since 2000: Coal 100 % increase Oil170 % increase Nat. Gas 40% increase, but nearly 80 % increase by Total: $12.1 billion Inflation: 40 % increase

Midwest Electricity Rates (cents per kWh, from EIA) 16

Midwest Electricity Rates (cont.) Wisconsin had lowest rates in In 2011, WI = 2 nd highest Residential, Highest Commercial, 2 nd highest Industrial 17

Charlie Higley Citizens Utility Board of Wisconsin x