United States Country Team Report Third NTA Workshop Honolulu, Hawaii January 20, 2006

Team members Pablo Comelatto Avi Ebenstein Ron Lee Tim Miller Eric Shiff Gretchen Stockmayer

Accomplishments 1.Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for Most Public Transfers, 1850 to Aggregate Control Totals, Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960,

Difficulties encountered 1.Using three micro-data sources rather than a single source. 2.Un-representative samples. (e.g. Industrial workers and their families) 3.Measuring household savings. (Residual of a residual). 4.Smoothing. 5.Adjusting to control totals.

Plans for next year (next 3 years?) Deepen accounting: Details on consumption (capital/current), reallocations (capital/credit/land), and transfers (education, health, other). Develop Wealth Accounts. Project accounts: 2007 to 2100? Widen accounting: Education and Gender Extend accounts: Back to 1776?

Accomplishments 1.Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for Most Public Transfers, 1850 to Aggregate Control Totals, Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960,

Labor Income Public Transfers Private Transfers Assets Composition of Per-Capita Inflow of Resources By Age

Consumption Public Transfers Private Transfers Assets Composition of Per-Capita Outflow of Resources By Age

Inflow Outflow Net Public Transfers Private Transfers Asset Reallocations Labor Earnings & Consumption How the per-capita life cycle deficit was funded: United States, 2000

Inflow Outflow Net Public Transfers Private Transfers Asset Reallocations Labor Earnings & Consumption How the per-capita life cycle deficit was funded: United States, 2000

Labor Income Assets Public Transfers Composition of Aggregate Inflow of Resources By Age

Consumption Private Transfers Public Transfers Assets Composition of Aggregate Outflow of Resources By Age

Inflow Outflow Net Public Transfers Private Transfers Asset Reallocations Labor Earnings & Consumption How the aggregate life cycle deficit was funded: United States, 2000

Accomplishments 1.Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for Most Public Transfers, 1850 to Aggregate Control Totals, Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960,

Accomplishments 1.Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for Most Public Transfers, 1850 to Aggregate Control Totals, Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960,

Aggregate Life Cycle Deficit as Percent of Labor Earnings, (C – YL) / YL

Accomplishments 1.Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for Most Public Transfers, 1850 to Aggregate Control Totals, Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960,

Next Step: Longitudinal Profiles Using the age data from 1988,1917,1935, and and the aggregate control totals from and with some heroic assumptions… We can obtain matrices for labor earnings, consumption, and the life cycle deficit by age and year from 1850 thru From these, we obtain the life cycle trajectories for birth cohorts.

Warning These are preliminary results. We cut a few corners in getting the data ready. Best viewed as an example of what we’re going to be doing (more carefully).

Ages 25 to 62

Age 24 to 59

$14 Billion (38%) $6 Billion (16%) $0.5 Billion (1.4%) Labor Earnings were $37 Billion 34% of Population is Age 25 to 62

$1.4 Trillion (22%) Labor earnings were $6.6 Trillion $1.0 Trillion (17%) $1.9 Trillion (30%) 50% of Population is Age 24 to 59

Average ages of Consumption and Labor Earnings by Birth Cohort (survival weighted – 0% discounting)

Average ages of Consumption and Labor Earnings by Birth Cohort (survival weighted – 3% discounting)

Difficulties encountered 1.Using three micro-data sources rather than a single source. 2.Un-representative samples. (e.g. Industrial workers and their families) 3.Assigning educational expenditures. 4.Measuring household savings. (Residual of a residual). 5.Measuring the capital stock.

Plans for next year (next 3 years?) Deepen accounting: Details on consumption (capital/current), reallocations (capital/credit/land), and transfers (education, health, other). Develop Wealth Accounts. Project accounts: 2007 to 2100? Other dimensions: Education and Gender Extend accounts: Back to 1776?