HLDI Casualty Actuarial Society 1999 Seminar on Ratemaking Kim L. Hazelbaker Senior Vice President Nashville, TN  March 11-12, 1999

HLDI

Light Truck Sales By Model Year Percent of New Vehicle Sales 47.5%

HLDI Percent of Passenger Vehicle Registrations By Vehicle Type, Weight, and Model Year Vehicle type Weight(lb) Cars<2, , , Passenger vans Total Pickups<3, , , Total Utility<3, vehicles 3, , Total

HLDI 1998 Model Ford Passenger Vehicles Escort2,585 lbs Explorer 4,325 lbs Expedition 5,290 lbs curb weight

HLDI Metro2,065 lbs Blazer4,225 lbs Suburban5,640 lbs curb weight 1998 Model GM Passenger Vehicles

HLDI 1997 Ford Escort1997 Ford Expedition

HLDI 1997 Ford Escort 1997 Ford Expedition

HLDI 1997 Ford Escort1997 Ford Expedition

HLDI Ford Excursion Model Year

HLDI Ford Super Concept Truck

HLDI vehicle weight (lb) Occupant Death Rates Passenger Vehicles Deaths per Million Vehicles per Year

HLDI Occupant Death Rates in Single-Vehicle Crashes Passenger Vehicles Deaths per Million Vehicles per Year vehicle weight (lb)

HLDI Occupant Death Rates in Two-Vehicle Crashes Passenger Vehicles Deaths per Million Vehicles per Year vehicle weight (lb)

HLDI Occupant Death Rates in Other Vehicles in Two-Vehicle Crashes, Passenger Vehicles Deaths per Million Vehicles per Year vehicle weight (lb)

HLDI Mix of Other Vehicles in Two-Vehicle Fatal Crashes Passenger Vehicles deaths in cars OTHER MEDIUM/ HEAVY TRUCK UTILITIES CARS CARS CARS <2500 PICKUPS vehicle weight (lb) deaths in pickups OTHER MEDIUM/ HEAVY TRUCK UTILITIES CARS CARS CARS <2500 PICKUPS deaths in utility vehicles OTHER MEDIUM/ HEAVY TRUCK UTILITIES CARS CARS CARS <2500 PICKUPS

HLDI Characteristics That Influence Compatibility/Aggressivity in Crashes Between Two Passenger Vehicles  Weight Differences decrease risk in the heavier vehicles and increase risk in the lighter vehicles  Structural Mismatches contribute to override/underride  Stiffness Differences can decrease the risk if the heavier vehicles are less stiff than the lighter vehicles  High Performance is associated with increased crash severity

HLDI Crash compatibility

HLDI Companies that Supply Data to HLDI  Aetna/Travelers  Allstate  American Family  Auto Club of Michigan  Farmers  GEICO  The Hartford  Kemper  Liberty Mutual  Mass. CAR  Motors  Nationwide  Progressive  Prudential  SAFECO  State Farm  USAA

HLDI VINDICATOR Information Decoded from Vehicle Identification Numbers VIN Positions World Manufacturer Identification Vehicle Attributes: Car Line Series Body Type Engine Restraints Check Digit Model Year Plant Code Sequential Number also: antilock brakes, antitheft devices, daytime running lights

HLDI Size of HLDI Database Number of Vehicles in Files, December 1997 Model YearNumber of Vehicles ,906, ,649, ,104, ,856, ,517, ,129, ,898, ,759, ,319,290 Total93,139,913

HLDI Collision Losses vs. Property Damage Losses Models Average Loss Payment Per Insured Vehicle Year Average Loss Payment Per Claim collisionproperty damage Claim Frequency (claims per 100 insured vehicle years) collisionproperty damage collisionproperty damage $270 $180 $90 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 passenger cars, and passenger vans pickups, utility vehicle, and large vans

HLDI Collision and Property Damage Liability Losses By Vehicle Type and Size Class, Models Average Loss Payment per Insured Vehicle Year $relative$relative Cars small $268120$7998 midsize $250112$7390 large$20692$6277 Passenger Vans $16574$6479 Pickupssmall $20089$ standard $16875$95117 Utilitysmall$21194$94116 Vehiclesmidsize$21295$98121 large$13560$ All passenger vehicles$224100$81100 Collision Property Damage Liability

HLDI Collision vs. Property Damage Liability Average Loss Payment Per Insured Vehicle Year, Models property damage liability High Collision Low Property Damage Low Collision Low Property Damage Low Collision High Property Damage High Collision High Property Damage collision small sports mdsize sports mdsize luxury mini sports large luxury very lg luxury mdsize 2-dr mdsize 4-dr very lg sw 2-dr and 4-dr cars, station wagons, & passenger vans sports and luxury cars pickups, utility vehicles and large vans all vehicle average very lg 4-dr large 4-dr pass vans small 4-dr mini 4-dr mini 2-dr small 2-dr small utility std pickup midsize utility large van large utility small pickup mdsize sw large 2-dr

HLDI The Washington Post — January 24, 1999

HLDI New Yorker — March 9, 1998

HLDI Miami Herald — February 14, 1998

HLDI Nissan SUT Model Year

HLDI Ford Explorer SportTrac Model Year

HLDI Lincoln Blackwood Model Year

HLDI