1 Predictions and Uncertainty 2013 “Ice Free”

Significant periods of open water conditions throughout large areas of the Arctic by 2025

Greenland CANADA RUSSIA Alaska NORWAY Greenland CANADA RUSSIA Alaska NORWAY PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST ONE 50 MILLION BARREL EQUIVALENT FIELD IN MARKED SECTOR 100% % 30-50% 10-30% <10% Negligible RED OVERLAYS = UNDISPUTED EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONES Arctic Resource Exploitation Greenland CANADA RUSSIA Alaska NORWAY 3 PURPLE OVERLAYS = POTENTIAL / FUTURE EEZ & ECS RESOLUTIONS

4 4 Security Implications Implies a National/Global “whole of government” approach − Food − Water − Shelter − Energy − Health − Exposure − Sensitivity − Adaptability − Defense − Diplomacy − Development − Weather − Ocean − Land − Space Climate ChangeResponseFactorsImpacts

5 Navy Climate Interests Installations & Environment  Impact of sea level rise  Water resources  Natural & cultural resources Operations & Plans  Increasing Arctic maritime activity  Adaptation partnerships opportunities  Potential increase in Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Response Wild-cards  Ocean acidification  Abrupt climate change  Geoengineering It’s all about Readiness … today … and tomorrow 5

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7 It’s Complicated

Strategic Objectives 8  Ensure U.S. Arctic sovereignty and provide homeland defense  Provide ready naval forces to respond to crisis and contingencies to maintain security and stability  Preserve freedom of the seas  Promote partnerships within the U.S. Government and international allies In the near to mid-term, the Navy will concentrate on improving operational capabilities/expertise/capacity, and extending reach. We will engage interagency and international partners to achieve strategic objectives  Maritime Security –Search and Rescue  Sea Control  Power Projection –Freedom of Navigation –Disaster Response/Defense Support of Civil Authorities Key Missions

What does “ militar ize the Arctic ” mean?

5 Arctic Sea Route Navigability Recommend ship have minimal ice hardening with icebreaker escort 10-40% sea ice Open Water Navigable by open ocean vessels without icebreaker escort > 40% sea ice Significant restrictions to navigability Northern Sea Route (NSR) Shoulder Transpolar Route (TPR) Polar routes will gradually open. Transit season is short. Maritime activity growth only 2-4% of global shipping. Will not replace the Suez or Panama Canals as primary shipping routes. Bering Strait (BS ) (4,170 NM) (4,740 NM) Northwest Passage (NWP ) Mid SepLate AugEarly Oct (5,225 NM) 8 Wks 5 Wks 2 Wks5 Wks 6 Wks5 Wks 4 Wks 8 Wks 3 Wks 5 Wks3 Wks 21 Wks 3 Wks 23 Wks3 Wks 4 Wks 25 Wks4 Wks 5 Wks 27 Wks5 Wks 3 Wks 2 Wks 3 Wks 4 Wks 3 Wks 4 Wks 6 Wks 4 Wks 5 Wks 9 Wks 5 Wks Early Aug Mid SepMid DecMid Jun Mid SepLate Oct Late AugMid SepEarly Oct Shoulder Open Water 483 Vessels 1,000 Vessels 44 Vessels 450 Vessels 0 Vessels 100 Vessels 51 Vessels 200 Vessels Vessel data from ONI

Atmospheric CO2 – May 2013