Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre Pat McCarthy & Steve Knott Program Supervisors

PASPC Background Storm Prediction Centre split over two locations (Winnipeg/Edmonton) 24/7 Operations Focus on HIW forecasting

Largest area of responsibility in the world Largest number of products in the world: –~140 forecast regions –Over 800 warning regions –Large marine responsibility 9 Doppler radars

HIW experience Over 40 tornadoes per year Most severe thunderstorms Most blizzards in Canada Most extreme windchill events 1 st in Canada to provide dedicated 24/7 severe weather forecaster coverage During day, 4 forecasters available for severe weather forecasting All staff are trained to meet a high level of severe weather expertise

Scientific interests BL processes! –Appears to play an important role for throughout the year –Severe convection seems related to evapotranspiration and other local effects (in addition to dominant advective processes) –Lack of data (BL and Upper air) makes it difficult to understand this impact –Frustrating for forecasters –Hinders HIW forecasting

STABLE Originated STABLE concept in 1999 To address: –Better understand BL processes –Their impact on storm initiation –Their impact on storm evolution –Develop conceptual models to “fill in the blanks” in the data –Calgary - Red Deer corridor seemed the most affected and was deemed to be a great place to study –Information to be applied to remainder of the Prairies and beyond –mesoscale modeling?

4 areas: –Forecast support –Science support –Pre-project logistics –Science transfer to SPCs/developers PASPC Involvement in UNSTABLE

Forecast support Provide daily forecasts Provide daily consultation Forecasters available 24/7 for forecast support from SPC Forecasters on-site?

Science Support SPC research targeted to UNSTABLE goals Staff available to participate in research activities (Before, during and after project) Possibly available to assist field work activities

Pre-project Support Available for summer 2007 to test forecast logistics Available to support RSD activities related to UNSTABLE for 2007/2008 Available to fill in behind RSD to free UNSTABLE scientists

Science Transfer Co-author research papers Develop case studies Present findings at conferences/workshops Establish training for staff Work with developers to incorporate lessons, ideas, etc. (e.g. mesoscale modeling, NinJo, etc.)

Preliminary Milestones Spring 2007: identify PASPC participants to work on UNSTABLE science objectives (in collaboration with the Labs and universities) Summer 2007 – RSD tests with HAL to understand requirements for 2008 (mini UNSTABLE?) Summer 2007 – Spring 2008: work on pre-experiment science Spring 2008 – training for staff/students participating in filed work. Spring 2008 – training for RSD forecasters on field project objectives, requirements and support techniques/procedures Spring 2008 – training for RSD forecasters on any unique tools used for the desk June 2008 – run RSD tests July 2008 – Deploy staff to the field and to the RSD August 2008 and beyond – continue science and prepare papers Fall 2008 – provide Project summary report on PASPC’s participation

Questions?