CCB: Economic and policy aspects March 2002 Ekko van Ierland Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group Wageningen University and Research Centre.

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Presentation transcript:

CCB: Economic and policy aspects March 2002 Ekko van Ierland Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group Wageningen University and Research Centre

Socio-economic aspects of climate change Analysis of socio-economic causes of changes in landuse Cost-effectiveness studies at national and international level Integrated assessment modellen: Rains Asia; MERGE; DICE model Analysis of policy instruments and options Interactions between various pollutants: GHG, acidification, ozone Marginal emission reduction costs, source: Kram, 1993.

Where are we now? Integrated modelling (RICE, MERGE,IMAGE) Stakeholder: COOL /NOP impact project Started: – Risk and uncertainty analysis –Stability of International Environmental Agreement Lacking: economics and policy analysis of sequestration, landuse, water systems and interactions

* Shift from climate change to global change * Stronger focus on interactions and their effects * Costs of emission reduction vs sequestration? * Technological progress and the implications? * Multi/interdisciplinary approaches but also monodisciplinary in-depth research New challenges: the context

Carbon fluxes of a forest

New challenges I Landuse Mitigation options through landuse: cost and benefits Land use modelling: climate, food, energy, nature, biodiversity Economic aspects of carbon sequestration: transaction costs, risk and uncertainty

New challenges II Rivers and coastal management Changes in climate, landuse and watermanagement Ecohydrological processes (scaling and remote sensing): economic analysis Socio-economic analysis for wetlands, river basins and coastal zones

Interrelations between environmental policies

Results: abatement cost

New Challenges III Integrated assessment Available: Integrated Climate Change Models MERGE; DICE; FUND; IMAGE New questions: Interactions with other topics: acidification; nature conservation; biodiversity How to deal with risk: learning, irreversibilities, probabilities of damage?

New challenges IV: After 2010? What has to come after 2010? How to get developing countries involved? Who are loosers, who are winners? (See VI on IEAs) Methods: Case studies;Scenario studies;Damage studies

New challenges V: Risk Risk and uncertainty analysis: How to integrate in decision making? How do stakeholders perceive risks? How to develop hedging strategies? What is actually precautionary principle? Methods: Dynamic risk modelling Stakeholder analysis

Montreal protocol (CFCs, Ozone depletion) Gothenburg Protocol (Acidification) Kyoto protocol RIO Convention on biodiversity International environmental agreements

New challenges VI: IEAs Stability of international environmental agreements Coalition formation (open membership) Internal stability/ external stability How to distribute the gains of cooperation? How to avoid members leaving the coalition? Methods: APPLIED GAME THEORY Cost benefit analyses