Does prior history of domestic violence predict domestic murder or other serious assaults? Sara Thornton, Thames Valley Police

Conference’s name here The claim There is a clear relationship between everyday…interpersonal violence…and…domestic homicide (Websdale 1994) There is therefore an opportunity to intervene in escalating patterns of violence Therefore we need to assess the risk based on predictors drawn from studies of domestic murders Prediction can lead to prevention

Conference’s name here The research questions In how many cases was there a prior history of reported domestic violence? How accurate were the risk assessments based on prior history in terms of false positives and false negatives? Might a prospective denominator-based prediction produce more accurate forecasting than a numerator-based prediction? Are the predictors for murder different from other serious assaults?

Conference’s name here DASH high risk factors for potential murder victims Fear Isolation Separation Conflict over a child Stalking Pregnancy Child abuse Frequency of abuse Escalation of abuse Jealousy Weapons Threats to kill Strangulation Sexual assault Other threats Mistreat animals Drug abuse Attempt suicide

Conference’s name here Domestic Violence Offences Offence 3 Years - Numbers 2007 to 2009 % of sample Murder1311 Attempt murder1614 Manslaughter11 GBH with intent8874 Total118100

Conference’s name here Gender and outcomes Murder Attempt murderManslaughter GBH with intent All offences Female victims 11 (85%) 15 (94%)1 40 (45%)67 Male victims 2 (15%) 1 (6%)0 48 (55%)51 Total

Conference’s name here Risk of death per attack: 4 times higher for women victims Female Victims Attacks = 67 Death = 11 Ratio = 1 in 6 Male Victims Attacks = 51 Deaths = 2 Ratio = 1 in 25

Conference’s name here Victim prior contact with the police Victim has prior recorded domestic incident contact with police since 1/1/2000Number% YES NO Total

Conference’s name here Prior risk assessment Risk assessment for victim on most recent prior domestic incident (n=53)Number%Valid % High Medium Standard Prior contact but risk assessment not known or not recorded N/A as no prior domestic incident contact with police Total118100

Conference’s name here How well did DASH predict? None of the 13 murder victims had been assessed as high risk Of the 6 murder victims who had been risk assessed following a previous incident, 1 was assessed as medium risk and 5 standard risk No prior domestic incident contact with police for 7 of the murder victims DASH missed 55% of attacks

Conference’s name here Prior domestic incident contacts between victim & police Total number of contacts Number of victims Cumulative % Sub total contacts5345 No prior Domestic Incident contact with police6555 Total118100

Conference’s name here Most recent prior victim contact with the police for domestic incidents (n=53) Nature of victim's most recent prior domestic incident contact with the policeNumber% Non-crime domestic incident Actual Bodily Harm Assault without injury713.2 Criminal Damage47.5 Threats to kill47.5 Harassment35.7 Racist incident non-recordable crime11.9 GBH with intent11.9 Arson with intent to endanger life11.9 Total53100

Conference’s name here Offender criminal record Previous criminal recordNumber% of sample Suspect has prior criminal record [Suspect has prior criminal record for a violent offence] Suspect has no prior criminal record No record traced/missing data43.4 Total118100

Conference’s name here Next steps Collect data on the false positives: analyse MARAC watch list Investigate potential denominators Identify further studies which have assessed the effectiveness of DASH or its predecessor

Thank you