Crime and crime prevention in SA Presentation to the Safety and Security Portfolio Committee Anton du Plessis, Duxita Mistry and Makubetse Sekhonyane Crime and Justice Programme Institute for Security Studies

Outline Crime trends Crime trends Main factors driving crime Main factors driving crime Crime trends: what the statistics show Crime trends: what the statistics show Provincial crime trends Provincial crime trends ISS victim survey ISS victim survey Why conduct victim surveys Why conduct victim surveys Victimisation rates Victimisation rates Perceptions of safety and security Perceptions of safety and security Views on perpetrators of crime Views on perpetrators of crime Response to crime Response to crime

Factors contributing to crime Youthful population Youthful population Cycles of violence Cycles of violence Breakdown of institutions central to childhood development: family and schools Breakdown of institutions central to childhood development: family and schools The ‘normalisation’ of violence The ‘normalisation’ of violence Income inequality? Income inequality? Rapid urbanisation Rapid urbanisation Alcohol and drug abuse Alcohol and drug abuse Guns Guns Weak criminal justice system?? Weak criminal justice system??

Crime trends: what the statistics show

Crimes recorded by SAPS, 1994/ /04

Murder trend, 1994/ /04

Murder rates in selected countries, 1998 (Interpol)

Murder rates in selected countries, SA and Latin America

Murder and attempted murder trend, 1994/ /04

Rape trend 1994/ /04

Trend for car theft, 1994/ /04

Aggravated Robbery trends, 1994/ /4

Housebreaking trend, 1994/ /04

Trend for farm attacks, 1997/ /04

Provincial crime trends

Provincial crime rates, 2003/04

Change in murder rates

Change in housebreaking rates

Change in car hijacking rates

Murder trend, by month,

Assault trend, by month,

Key issues: 03/04 SAPS statistics Decline in most crime categories was more than we expected, including provincial levels Decline in most crime categories was more than we expected, including provincial levels Many SA’s still do not believe the crime stats Many SA’s still do not believe the crime stats Not much analysis in the annual report Not much analysis in the annual report We are concerned about the sustainability of the decrease We are concerned about the sustainability of the decrease Crimes dependent on SAPS action increased. This is a positive indicator for the SAPS Crimes dependent on SAPS action increased. This is a positive indicator for the SAPS The decrease in reported levels of rape is concerning The decrease in reported levels of rape is concerning The increase in robbery needs further explanation The increase in robbery needs further explanation Despite decreases in stats, most SA’s are increasingly fearful of crime Despite decreases in stats, most SA’s are increasingly fearful of crime

ISS National Victims of Crime Survey

Why conduct national victim surveys? To find out more about crime levels: To find out more about crime levels: supplement police crime statistics supplement police crime statistics first national survey in SA since 1998 first national survey in SA since 1998 To better understand the nature of crime: To better understand the nature of crime: help to compile risk profiles for specific crime types help to compile risk profiles for specific crime types victims provide info in a format they best understand victims provide info in a format they best understand To track public perceptions of crime & its impact: To track public perceptions of crime & its impact: measure the fear of crime and perceptions of safety measure the fear of crime and perceptions of safety help assess the impact of crime on behaviour help assess the impact of crime on behaviour To track public opinion on what is being done about crime To track public opinion on what is being done about crime measure views of police and court accessibility & performance measure views of police and court accessibility & performance

Methodology Survey conducted: 1 Sept -15 Oct 2003 by Development Research Africa (DRA) Survey conducted: 1 Sept -15 Oct 2003 by Development Research Africa (DRA) Sampling Sampling Random selection of households across SA Random selection of households across SA randomly selected individuals ≥16 years randomly selected individuals ≥16 years Sample stratified by province & area type (urban\rural) Sample stratified by province & area type (urban\rural) Weighting Weighting Race, gender & economic status Race, gender & economic status Effect of weighting to reflect actual composition of population Effect of weighting to reflect actual composition of population

Crime rates in SA, 1998 and 2003 national victim surveys 22.5% of all SA’s were victims in % of all SA’s were victims in 2003 This is 2% less than the 24.5% who were victims in 1998 This is 2% less than the 24.5% who were victims in 1998 This suggests that crime, as measured by the victim surveys, has levelled off since 1998 This suggests that crime, as measured by the victim surveys, has levelled off since 1998

Reporting of crime to the police, 2003

Comparative reporting rates, SA 1998 & 2003

Perceptions about crime and safety

Views on how crime level has changed in past 3 years

How safe do you feel walking alone in your area after dark?

% victims who knew offenders

SA’s views on what motivates criminals

Views on perpetrators of crime 29% of SA’s know someone who makes a living from crime in their area 29% of SA’s know someone who makes a living from crime in their area Race & province trends suggest poorer people are more likely to know someone who makes a living from crime Race & province trends suggest poorer people are more likely to know someone who makes a living from crime But most people don’t think criminals are motivated by ‘real need’ But most people don’t think criminals are motivated by ‘real need’

Views on perpetrators of crime (cont) 64% believe crime is committed by ‘people living in the area’ 64% believe crime is committed by ‘people living in the area’ Very few (only 4%) believe foreigners are responsible for crime Very few (only 4%) believe foreigners are responsible for crime

One thing government should spend money on to make area safer from violence, by race

Responses to crime

How is the state responding? Past 5 years - focus on law enforcement: Past 5 years - focus on law enforcement: Police: ‘Operation Crackdown’ Police: ‘Operation Crackdown’ Justice: improving court efficiency & focus on organised crime Justice: improving court efficiency & focus on organised crime Corrections: trying to cope with increasing numbers of inmates Corrections: trying to cope with increasing numbers of inmates More recently - signs of move towards more preventive approach: More recently - signs of move towards more preventive approach: emphasis on rehabilitation of prisoners emphasis on rehabilitation of prisoners diversion of young offenders diversion of young offenders ‘moral regeneration’ campaign ‘moral regeneration’ campaign

Achievements overall since 1994 Many new policies and laws to deal with crime: Many new policies and laws to deal with crime: Crime prevention & policing Crime prevention & policing Organised crime Organised crime Terrorism Terrorism Sexual offences and domestic violence Sexual offences and domestic violence Firearms Firearms Children’s rights Children’s rights Corruption Corruption

Achievements overall since 1994 (cont) Mechanisms in place for oversight of policing Mechanisms in place for oversight of policing Substantial organisational transformation in the CJS Substantial organisational transformation in the CJS Many state and civil society partnerships to deal with crime and strengthen the CJS Many state and civil society partnerships to deal with crime and strengthen the CJS

Challenges  Making new policies and legislation work  Improving public perceptions  Responding to crime without undermining human rights  Maintaining a balance between enforcement and prevention approaches  Improving accountability and oversight  Working collaboratively

Thank you Institute for Security Studies