Unlocking Upstate’s interlocking challenges: Economy, population, sprawl Rolf Pendall Department of City & Regional Planning Cornell University, Ithaca, NY Presentation to Onondaga Community Leadership Conference Syracuse, May 17, 2006

NY State employment growth lags US growth,

Private sector job growth anemic Private sector job growth anemic especially west of the Hudson Valley

Local government bolsters Upstate job growth

Upstate’s per capita income gap with U.S. widened in the 1990s

Stagnant average wages the main contributor to slow income growth

Upstate economy in transition, but manufacturing still important

Health sector comparatively strong

Upstate leads USA in college grads

“Best-educated counties” cluster in the Hudson Valley

Population growth slows below Downstate, U.S. average

Part of a 15-million-person, eight-state stagnant region

Upstate sprawls despite slow growth

Towns grow, Cities decline

Meanwhile, back in the cities… Home ownership rate dropped to 45.9% between 1990 and 2000 Home ownership rate dropped to 45.9% between 1990 and 2000 Housing vacancy rates rose to 11.5% Housing vacancy rates rose to 11.5% 75% of city housing built before % of city housing built before 1960 Income growth lags towns’ income growth Income growth lags towns’ income growth Renters pay too much for housing Renters pay too much for housing City property tax bases fell in the 1990s City property tax bases fell in the 1990s Cities’ child poverty (31%) is 3X towns’ Cities’ child poverty (31%) is 3X towns’

What if tax rates were equalized?

The hand we’ve been dealt Economic restructuring, reduction in heavy manufacturing Economic restructuring, reduction in heavy manufacturing Slow population growth Slow population growth Falling prices for farm products Falling prices for farm products An established endowment of sprawl-fueling infrastructure An established endowment of sprawl-fueling infrastructure Hundreds of local governments Hundreds of local governments

The way we play the hand we’ve been dealt Identify, test, and carry out new state and federal policies Identify, test, and carry out new state and federal policies Transform local and regional practices Transform local and regional practices Build cross-cutting coalitions to work for change at every level on all issues Build cross-cutting coalitions to work for change at every level on all issues

Policies, 1: Renew Upstate’s Economy—Sustainably Speed the transition to a high-road economy based on “Eds and Meds” Speed the transition to a high-road economy based on “Eds and Meds” Plan and spend strategically to encourage connections among higher ed, health care, high-value manufacturing Plan and spend strategically to encourage connections among higher ed, health care, high-value manufacturing Bring cities closer together with infrastructure investments Bring cities closer together with infrastructure investments Build regional competitiveness by cutting competition Build regional competitiveness by cutting competition Require regional vision for economic development Require regional vision for economic development Monitor and evaluate business subsidies to ensure net gains Monitor and evaluate business subsidies to ensure net gains Promote sustainable rural economic development Promote sustainable rural economic development Protect resource uses from encroachment by new housing Protect resource uses from encroachment by new housing Reduce environmental damage from ag, forestry, mining Reduce environmental damage from ag, forestry, mining

Policies, 2: Fight sprawl Enhance regional planning throughout Upstate Enhance regional planning throughout Upstate Encourage development in cities, villages, and hamlets Encourage development in cities, villages, and hamlets Reduce taxes for city owner-occupiers and businesses Reduce taxes for city owner-occupiers and businesses Ban exclusionary zoning in suburbs with infrastructure Ban exclusionary zoning in suburbs with infrastructure Clean up brownfields to accommodate new businesses Clean up brownfields to accommodate new businesses Facilitate annexation Facilitate annexation Equalize or share property tax revenues, especially new base Equalize or share property tax revenues, especially new base Work for affordable home ownership in cities, villages Work for affordable home ownership in cities, villages Stop subsidizing rural growth Stop subsidizing rural growth Don’t charge cities for rural services: sheriff, highways, etc. Don’t charge cities for rural services: sheriff, highways, etc. Cut infrastructure subsidies for inappropriate rural growth Cut infrastructure subsidies for inappropriate rural growth

Changing practices: Why wait for the state? Economic development can improve now Economic development can improve now Industrial development agencies can do better cost-benefit analysis, strategic planning Industrial development agencies can do better cost-benefit analysis, strategic planning Buffalo-Niagara Enterprise, Greater Rochester, Syracuse MDA can work together Buffalo-Niagara Enterprise, Greater Rochester, Syracuse MDA can work together Upstate higher-eds can work together Upstate higher-eds can work together Planning can make growth patterns more sensible now Planning can make growth patterns more sensible now Transportation planning organizations can stop widening rural roads and contribute more to city infrastructure Transportation planning organizations can stop widening rural roads and contribute more to city infrastructure Villages and towns can plan together Villages and towns can plan together County legislatures can cut sprawl-inducing taxes, spending County legislatures can cut sprawl-inducing taxes, spending

Building coalitions: If the problems are connected, so are the politics Community: Neighborhood revitalization agencies (CDCs, cities, faith-based organizations) + open space advocates + organized labor + mass transit advocates + committed farmers + civil rights organizations Community: Neighborhood revitalization agencies (CDCs, cities, faith-based organizations) + open space advocates + organized labor + mass transit advocates + committed farmers + civil rights organizations Business: Organizations from throughout Upstate + Universities + Health care providers Business: Organizations from throughout Upstate + Universities + Health care providers Government: Elected officials in inner suburbs, big cities facing related problems of tax base, infrastructure burden; officials in Albany, Washington whose concern should be New York State’s competitiveness Government: Elected officials in inner suburbs, big cities facing related problems of tax base, infrastructure burden; officials in Albany, Washington whose concern should be New York State’s competitiveness