Governors’ Biofuels Coalition Pathways to Win-Win-Win Outcomes Ernie Shea 25x’25 Project Coordinator March 13, x’25- America’s Energy Future

25x’25: A National Alliance  Operates as an autonomous project of the Energy Future Coalition  Organized to explore agriculture and forestry’s role in America’s energy future  Evolved to now include conservation, environment, business, defense and rural development organizations and leaders

The 25x’25 Vision By the year 2025, America’s farms, ranches and forests will provide 25 percent of the total energy consumed in the U.S. while continuing to produce safe, abundant and affordable food, feed and fiber.

We Will Meet This Goal By:  Producing transportation fuels  Harnessing wind energy  Converting biogas emissions  Capturing solar and hydro energy  Providing biomass for generating heat and power  Encouraging energy efficiency

1,000 Partners Strong:

Today (2012)Goal (2025) ~9.14 Quads Renewable Energy = 9.3% Quads Total Energy Consumed Quads Renewable Energy = 25% Where are we going EIA predicts consumption of 108 Quads by 2025

Where We Are Now?

Outcomes of 25x’25  27.8 quads of energy  $640 billion boost to economy  4.7 million new jobs  A more secure nation  A cleaner environment  Improved public health  Heightened respect for U.S. agriculture

Realities Fossil fuel resources are finite Global energy consumption is increasing (nearly 30% by 2030) The world population is growing (9.2 billion by 2050) Fast-developing economies like India and China are demanding more resources Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing (World carbon dioxide emissions expected to increase by 1.9% annually between 2001 and 2025)

America’s Mega Challenges National SecurityEconomic Recovery Environmental Improvement

America’s Mega Challenges National SecurityEconomic Recovery Environmental Improvement Public Health

What we know about aromatics…  Represent 20% to 30% of each gallon of gasoline by volume (provide octane and suppress premature combustion).  Are comprised of benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX).  Are created in crude oil refining, requiring more oil, energy, and cost than other gasoline constituents.  U.S. market consumes billion gallons per year  Primary contributors to Ultra Fine Particle (UFP) and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) emissions  Uncombusted BTX also constitutes black carbon, with significant short-term greenhouse gas effect.

Aromatics and Public Health  EPA has called ambient particulate matter (PM) one of the nation’s greatest heath threats  PM from vehicular emissions represents greatest danger  Gasoline PAHs are carcinogenic, mutagenic and genotoxic  Health studies link gasoline aromatics to human mortality and a myriad of health problems including autism, childhood obesity, premature birth, birth defects, infant brain damage, etc., along with respiratory conditions and cancers.

Solution Pathways Legislative Market Forces Regulatory Action ? ?

Mandatory Language Arising from Daschle – Dole ‘CLEAN OCTANE’ Provision in 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments CAA 202(a): EPA “shall by regulation prescribe … standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from … new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines, which … cause, or contribute to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.” CAA 202(l): For toxic pollutants, EPA “regulations shall contain standards for such fuels or vehicles, or both, which the Administrator determines reflect the greatest degree of emission reduction achievable.…” Passed after extensive debate on the Senate floor by a vote of 69 – 30

Bottom Line  PM / UFPs / PAHs from light vehicles pose major potential health risks to urban populations through multiple avenues;  There is insufficient research underway to understand these risks; and  No clear regulatory path to mitigate them.

Path Forward  Research and science tell us that we have a serious problem  For whatever reason EPA, whose principle mission is to protect public health, has chosen not to take action  Recently finalized CAFE/GHG rules could very well exacerbate this problem  Governors can provide much needed leadership in drawing national attention to this issue and encouraging EPA to take appropriate action

Points to Ponder  There is no silver bullet  We face a formidable opponent  We lack a comprehensive long range plan for realizing the full potential of biofuels  Spending too much time competing with ourselves for leadership  Time is not on our side  The entire value chain and rural America will suffer if we do not prevail