Delphi AED 615 Q. Molina

Objectives Become familiar with the social science research method known as Delphi.

Prerequisite Tools There are no Prerequisite tools required for the Delphi Research Method

Purpose Delphi is a group process for eliciting, collating, and generally directing informed (expert) judgment towards a consensus on a particular topic.

Uses Establishing goals and priorities Identifying the dimensions and the attributes of a problem Providing forecasts Clarifying positions and delineating differences between group members Gathering information from a group whose members do not meet fact-to-face and wish to retain their anonymity

Description Delphi is a method in which individuals focus on and debate issues anonymously. Typically conducted by mail or utilizing several rounds of questionnaires. Results of each round are collected, collated and analyzed by a design team. Questions for the next round are based on the analysis process. Generally provides convergence of opinions, but may provide the basis for disagreement.

Advantages within Delphi Anonymity More accurate representation of an individual’s feelings No group meetings are required. A large heterogeneous group may participate on an equal basis. Allows participants to be geographically scattered.

Limitations within Delphi Time may eliminate Delphi as a possibility. Is not useful for individuals who have difficulties reading or writing. High participant interest and commitment is assumed or the quantity and quality of responses will decrease with each round. By design Delphi does not allow for instant communication or intellectual stimulation.

Required Resources Level of Effort – design team requirements Skill Level – questionnaire written free of bias. Time Required – six weeks to complete 4 rounds.

Inputs Respondents should: –Have special experience or knowledge to share. –Represent a cross-section of opinions. –Be motivated to participate. Questionnaire should: –Be as short as possible –Be adapted to the language most familiar to the participants area of expertise –Elicit useful responses at the level of abstraction required

Tool Output Is generally a convergence of opinion. Frequency distribution Ranking of responses to a particular question.

Schedule for Delphi Delbecq, et al. (1975)

The Recipe Develop the basis for a Delphi Design Questionnaire #1 Solicit responses for questionnaire #1 Analyze questionnaire #1 Design questionnaire #2 Solicit responses for questionnaire #2 Analyze questionnaire #2 Design questionnaire #3 Solicit responses for questionnaire #3 Analyze questionnaire #3 Design questionnaire #4 Solicit responses for questionnaire #4 Analyze questionnaire #4 Closure

Design Team Size Large = 12 or more people. Medium = 2 – 12 people. Individual

Audience Size Large = 30 or more people. Medium = 10 to 30 people. Small = Under 10 people.

Theory Arguments have been made to support the claim that the Delphi method is superior to conventional uses of groups in problem solving or forecasting. (Gordon and Helmer 1964)

Journal Article Journal of Agricultural Education Article Utilizing the Delphi MethodJournal of Agricultural Education Article Utilizing the Delphi Method

Bibliography Dalkey, N. “An Experimental Study of Group Opinion. ” Futures 1 (June 1969): Delbecq, Andre; van de Ven, Andrew; and Gustafson, David. Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi. Chicago, Ill.: Scott Foresman, 1975 Gordon, Theodore J., and Helmer, Olaf. Report on a Long- Range Forecasting Study. Rand Paper P Santa Monica, CA.: Rand Corporation, September E063A2B4FFAFCA25707E EBB2EB2F BCA BF7A6

A Little Short of 25 – 30 Minutes