Attribution of Haze Phase 2 and Technical Support System Project Update AoH Meeting – San Francisco, CA September 14/15, 2005 Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Overview AoH Phase 2/TSS work plan AoH Phase 2/TSS work plan Review of data summary products and suggested modifications for Phase 2 Review of data summary products and suggested modifications for Phase 2 IWG input from August meeting IWG input from August meeting TSS scoping study TSS scoping study Weight of evidence approach Weight of evidence approach Critical milestones Critical milestones

Goals of the AoH Phase 2 Analysis Refine Phase 1 techniques for use in Phase 2. Refine Phase 1 techniques for use in Phase 2. Reduce uncertainty and address the remaining uncertainty in modeled data and attribution results. Reduce uncertainty and address the remaining uncertainty in modeled data and attribution results. Analyze the differences between modeled results for 2002 and the projected 2018 base case and various other control strategy scenarios. Analyze the differences between modeled results for 2002 and the projected 2018 base case and various other control strategy scenarios. Develop additional analytical approaches (e.g., receptor modeling, trends analysis, determination of the representativeness of baseline data set). Develop additional analytical approaches (e.g., receptor modeling, trends analysis, determination of the representativeness of baseline data set).

Goals of the AoH Phase 2 TSS Project Provide a single web-based location for access and display of technical data, display of analytical results, and the reference location for related documentation to support the regional haze implementation plans. Provide a single web-based location for access and display of technical data, display of analytical results, and the reference location for related documentation to support the regional haze implementation plans. Provide specific analysis tools to synthesize technical and contextual data and GIS layers, conduct analyses, and store results for subregional/local/Class I area- specific regional haze planning. Provide specific analysis tools to synthesize technical and contextual data and GIS layers, conduct analyses, and store results for subregional/local/Class I area- specific regional haze planning. Provide the analysis and display tools for Phase 2 analyses, and the technical support documentation for WRAP region SIPs and TIPs for regional haze. Provide the analysis and display tools for Phase 2 analyses, and the technical support documentation for WRAP region SIPs and TIPs for regional haze.

Team Members and Responsibilities

Work Plan Tasks – Analysis Project Task 1: Solicit and define user requirements from the appropriate WRAP work groups. Task 1: Solicit and define user requirements from the appropriate WRAP work groups. Task 2: Prepare suite of data products based on final 2002 emissions, modeling, and attribution results. Task 2: Prepare suite of data products based on final 2002 emissions, modeling, and attribution results. Task 3: Define the weight of evidence (WOE) approach to be applied to AoH Phase 2 data. Task 3: Define the weight of evidence (WOE) approach to be applied to AoH Phase 2 data. Task 4: Interpret 2018 results and implications for showing progress under the Regional Haze Rule. Task 4: Interpret 2018 results and implications for showing progress under the Regional Haze Rule. Task 5: Prepare draft and final AoH Phase 2 analysis report. Task 5: Prepare draft and final AoH Phase 2 analysis report. (Task 11: Travel to provide progress reports and solicit project feedback at WRAP meetings.) (Task 11: Travel to provide progress reports and solicit project feedback at WRAP meetings.)

Work Plan Tasks – TSS Project Task 6: Perform TSS requirements analysis and scoping study. Task 6: Perform TSS requirements analysis and scoping study. Task 7a: Acquire and prepare the relevant databases. Task 7a: Acquire and prepare the relevant databases. Task 7b: Summarize and evaluate WRAP Dust inventory. Task 7b: Summarize and evaluate WRAP Dust inventory. Task 8: Develop data review interfaces based on user requirements. Task 8: Develop data review interfaces based on user requirements. Task 9: Develop data exchange protocols and guidelines. Task 9: Develop data exchange protocols and guidelines. Task 10: Develop method to capture on-line user feedback. Task 10: Develop method to capture on-line user feedback. Task 11: Travel to provide progress reports and solicit project feedback at WRAP meetings. Task 11: Travel to provide progress reports and solicit project feedback at WRAP meetings.

Project Timing by Task

TSS Data Summary Products Emissions, monitoring, modeling, and attribution results will be housed in on-line databases Emissions, monitoring, modeling, and attribution results will be housed in on-line databases User requests will combine data with contextual information and/or GIS layers (if appropriate) User requests will combine data with contextual information and/or GIS layers (if appropriate) ARS and AoH work group will develop a Weight of Evidence (WOE) approach for integrating results ARS and AoH work group will develop a Weight of Evidence (WOE) approach for integrating results Scoping study (Task 6) will determine the level of sophistication achievable for data products during project Scoping study (Task 6) will determine the level of sophistication achievable for data products during project All data used for 2007 SIPS/TIPS will be version controlled to keep it separate from new data and information added to the TSS over time All data used for 2007 SIPS/TIPS will be version controlled to keep it separate from new data and information added to the TSS over time

Draft TSS Home Page

Emissions Data Use EDMS as data source Use EDMS as data source Summary of emissions data will be available by source type, point, county, and grid cell Summary of emissions data will be available by source type, point, county, and grid cell Provide summaries of projected changes in emissions from 2002 to 2018 Provide summaries of projected changes in emissions from 2002 to 2018 Include GIS information Include GIS information

Monitoring/Modeling Data Display visibility based on monitoring or modeling results Display visibility based on monitoring or modeling results Include RHR and other monitoring data sets Include RHR and other monitoring data sets Tie in baseline and glide path results Tie in baseline and glide path results Include GIS information Include GIS information

Attribution Data Attribution results will include: PSAT, TRA, PMF Attribution results will include: PSAT, TRA, PMF Integrate results with EIs Integrate results with EIs Provide more results with map products than in Phase 1 Provide more results with map products than in Phase 1 Review attribution groupings Review attribution groupings

Supporting Data Assess what supporting data is needed for SIP/TIP preparation and WOE Assess what supporting data is needed for SIP/TIP preparation and WOE Regional assessments included in Phase 1? Regional assessments included in Phase 1? Back trajectory summaries? Back trajectory summaries? Integrate with GIS data? Integrate with GIS data? Links to data web sites Links to data web sites

New Data Summary Products Presentation of control strategies – may be descriptive text with bar charts showing anticipated reductions Presentation of control strategies – may be descriptive text with bar charts showing anticipated reductions Projected 2018 emissions, visibility, modeling, and attribution results – will be able display just like 2002 results; will also include display of changes Projected 2018 emissions, visibility, modeling, and attribution results – will be able display just like 2002 results; will also include display of changes Historical trend and future glide slope analyses – may include multiple data sets (RHR, “raw”) and extinction equations (current and proposed) – both VIEWS and COHA projects working on versions of these products Historical trend and future glide slope analyses – may include multiple data sets (RHR, “raw”) and extinction equations (current and proposed) – both VIEWS and COHA projects working on versions of these products Weight of evidence approach Weight of evidence approach Ability for users to add data/GIS layers/analyses to TSS Ability for users to add data/GIS layers/analyses to TSS

IWG SIP Outline Revised SIP outline developed at August meeting Revised SIP outline developed at August meeting Items in red are directly supportable by TSS and are required products of TSS Items in red are directly supportable by TSS and are required products of TSS Each of these items exists from Phase 1 or is planned for the TSS Each of these items exists from Phase 1 or is planned for the TSS

IWG Flow Chart for Uniform Rate of Progress

TSS Scoping Study Outline Identify, understand, and refine the user/system requirements Identify, understand, and refine the user/system requirements Match products types with user needs (e.g., SIP outline) Match products types with user needs (e.g., SIP outline) Identify a set of case studies that illustrate the system’s use Identify a set of case studies that illustrate the system’s use Explore the architectural options Explore the architectural options Select and evaluate a candidate architecture (feasibility, available expertise) Select and evaluate a candidate architecture (feasibility, available expertise) Revisit system requirements – changes needed? Revisit system requirements – changes needed? Finalize selection: create set of documents and diagrams that describe system architecture, team member roles Finalize selection: create set of documents and diagrams that describe system architecture, team member roles Generate a detailed project plan Generate a detailed project plan What is feasible with available time/funds? What is feasible with available time/funds? What cannot be done at this time? What cannot be done at this time? Minimum requirement: MUST support SIP preparation Minimum requirement: MUST support SIP preparation

TSS Scoping Study Schedule Scoping study (task 6) must be completed before most of the remaining TSS tasks (7-10) can be started Scoping study (task 6) must be completed before most of the remaining TSS tasks (7-10) can be started Expected completion: November 2005 Expected completion: November 2005 AoH work group will receive a detailed update at November meeting AoH work group will receive a detailed update at November meeting

Weight of Evidence Approach Recipe for assessment of reasonable progress: Recipe for assessment of reasonable progress: Comparison between baseline and 2018 base case Comparison between baseline and 2018 base case Review alternate methods of calculating baseline (exclude fire, etc.?) Review alternate methods of calculating baseline (exclude fire, etc.?) Review of alternate 2018 control scenarios Review of alternate 2018 control scenarios Justification of why a site does or does not show reasonable progress Justification of why a site does or does not show reasonable progress Checklist containing each products type: Checklist containing each products type: Succinct description of what information product displays Succinct description of what information product displays Relative uncertainty of each product Relative uncertainty of each product Relative importance or weight of each product Relative importance or weight of each product Assessment of how well various analyses “agree”: Assessment of how well various analyses “agree”: Do all attribution methods tend toward similar results? Do all attribution methods tend toward similar results? Do EIs combined with back trajectory analyses support attribution results? Do EIs combined with back trajectory analyses support attribution results? Do changes in EIs support reasonable rate of progress demonstration? Do changes in EIs support reasonable rate of progress demonstration? Prepare tutorial for users – several case studies which require somewhat different approaches Prepare tutorial for users – several case studies which require somewhat different approaches

Weight of Evidence Approach (Recap of Ralph’s slide) Glide paths and modeled RPG test (EPA) Glide paths and modeled RPG test (EPA) Eliminate days dominated by “natural” events in modeled RPG test (e.g., fires, dust) Eliminate days dominated by “natural” events in modeled RPG test (e.g., fires, dust) 2018 projections for species dominated by anthropogenic emissions (e.g., SO4, NO3) 2018 projections for species dominated by anthropogenic emissions (e.g., SO4, NO3) 2018 projections for modeled worst visibility days, worst sulfate days, etc projections for modeled worst visibility days, worst sulfate days, etc. Other??? Other???

Review of AoH Project Schedule Phase 2 Report