Recent Developments in the South China Sea A PHILIPPINE PERSPECTIVE by Chito Sta. Romana President, Philippine Association for Chinese Studies (PACS)

ARBITRATION CASE March 31, 2014: Philippines submitted Memorial December 15, 2014: Deadline for China’s submission of its Memorial December 16, 2014: Tribunal’s questions to the Philippines

ARBITRATION CALENDAR March 16, 2015: Philippines’ answers to the Tribunal July 2015: Oral hearings before the Tribunal 1 st Quarter 2016: Anticipated issuance of Award (Sources: Paul Reichler, CSIS Conference, July 2014; Robert Beckman, MIMA Conference, Sept 2014)

WHAT PHILIPPINES SEEKS Declare China’s claims based on 9-dash- line as contrary to UNCLOS and invalid Declare China’s occupation of 4 submerged features as unlawful Declare Scarborough Shoal & 3 other reefs China occupies as “rocks” entitled only to 12-mile territorial sea

WHAT PH DOES NOT SEEK Resolution of sovereignty issue over disputed islands Delimitation of maritime boundaries (exclusive economic zones) Claims that China excluded from arbitration: boundary delimination, historic bays or titles, military & law enforcement activities

SECOND THOMAS SHOAL Flashpoint: Maritime blockade by China Coast Guard ships China’s aim: to cut off supplies to PH marines deployed on grounded vessel & force them to withdraw so China can control over the shoal

MARITIME BLOCKADE

ARTIFICIAL ISLANDS China is dredging seabed & turning reefs under its control into “artificial islands” Reported to be a $5 billion, 10-yr project, technical feasibility work in Johnson South Reef (Sources: reports in several websites in China, New York Times & South China Morning Post)

POTENTIAL FLASHPOINTS Reed Bank: if China moves its oil rig to start exploration work there Scarborough Shoal: if China starts dredging work there to turn it into an artificial island