1 Development of a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for Real-Time Forecasting in Prince William Sound and Adjacent Alaska Coastal Waters YI CHAO,

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Presentation transcript:

1 Development of a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for Real-Time Forecasting in Prince William Sound and Adjacent Alaska Coastal Waters YI CHAO, Carrie Zhang (& JPL ROMS Group) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology Jim McWilliams, Xavier Capet (& UCLA ROMS Group) UCLA

2 Data Input Theoretical & Numerical Models (forward and inverse) Synthesis Products User Community Local Managers Education Public Outreach Observations (satellite, in situ) Observation Network Design 3D Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation: Connect Observations to Practical Applications Feedback Forecasting

3 Prince William Sound (PWS) circulation is complex: small spatial scale, time scale varies from days to decades 2 AUG 04 SST Internal instability Local forcing by atmosphere, rivers, glaciers “Remote” forcing by El Nino, La Nina, PDO, & global warming

4 Pacific Basin-Scale Modeling: Eddy-Permitting Resolution at 12.5-km (1520x1088x30) Columbia Computer (NASA Advanced Computer System) SGI Altix 10,000+ processors

5 OBS Model Sea Surface Temperature

6 9-km 3-km 1-km

7 Climatology 2004 Transport Hinchinbrook Entrance Vs Montague Strait

8 Climatology 2004 Hinchinbrook Entrance Meridional Current

9 Winter 2004 Spring 2004 Summer 2004 Fall 2004 Hinchinbrook Entrance

10 HF Radar Surface Current

11 July 2-13 July Aug Aug

12 Integrating Data with Models (or Data Assimilation) for Real-Time Nowcast and Forecast 12-hour forecast J = 0.5 (x-x f ) T B -1 (x-x f ) (h x-y) T R -1 (h x-y) Time Aug.1 00Z Aug.1 18Z Aug.1 12Z Aug.1 06Z Initial condition 6-hour forecast Aug.2 00Z X a = x f +  x f XaXa xfxf 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method: 3-day forecast y: observation x: model 6-hour assimilation cycle

13 Data Input Theoretical & Numerical Models (forward and inverse) Synthesis Products User Community Local Managers Education Public Outreach Observations (satellite, in situ) Observation Network Design End-to-End Integration from Ocean Observing System & Model-based Nowcast/Forecast to Decision Making Feedback Forecasting

14 Contact:

15

16 Winter Climatology Spring Climatology Fall Climatology Summer Climatology Hinchinbrook Entrance

17 Observation ROMS