Presented By:Thelma A. Cinco PAGASA's Major Services and Products Presented By:Thelma A. Cinco PAGASA/DOST Workshop on High Resolution Modelling using CCAM May 22, 2009

Background Information PAGASA mandated to provide public weather forecasts and advisories, typhoon and flood warnings, meteorological /climatological/ astronomical products, and other specialized services primarily for the protection of life and property, and in support of economic productivity we from the CAB of PAGASA, the NMHC of the Phils. Mandated to provide public weather forecasts and advisories, typhoon and flood warnings, meteorological/climatological/ astronomical products, and other specialized services primarily for the protection of life and property, and in support of economic productivity Included in MDP specifically for disaster preparednes & mitigation.

Philippine geography & topography Archipelago, composed of 7,100 islands with low lying areas Due to its geographical setting, it is considered as one of the countries of the world most prone to extreme climatic events. Among longest coastlines in the world with 32,400 kms (susceptible to storm surges) Highly susceptible to sea level rise

PAGASA Approved Rationalization Plan OFFICE OF THE ADMINISTRATOR CLIMATOLOGY AND AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION WEATHER DIVISION ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL SERVICES FINANCIAL, PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT DIVISION ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION HYDRO-METEOROLOGY DIVISION RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING DIVISION PAGASA REGIONAL SERVICES DIVISIONS (5) FIELD STATIONS Based on approved Rationalization Plan PAGASA Approved Rationalization Plan

OBSERVATION NETWORKS Synoptic Stations 58 (w/repairs) Agromet Stations 21 (w/repairs) Upper-air Stations 6 (rehab) Weather Surveillance Radar 5 + 5 Dopplers AWS 5 + new sites MTSAT Receiving Facility 2 MODIS Receiving Facility 1 FY-2D 1 World Area Forecast System (WAFS) 1 NOAA Satellite Receiving Facility 2 WEFAX Receiving Facility 4 Climat stations 90 (good) CBRON, CBFEWS new sites Ozone Monitoring Background Air Pollution Monitoring (BAPMon) 5

Network of PAGASA Stations Operational PAGASA Stations 57 Synoptic Stations 20 Agromet Stations 90 Climat/Rain Stations.

MAJOR SERVICES Weather Services Climatological and Agrometeorological Services Hydrometeorological Services Space Technology Application

WEATHER SERVICES Operational Products Daily 24-hr Weather Forecast Five-day Outlook for Selected Key Cities and Areas Marine Shipping Forecast Flight Documentation Folder (International, National or General Aviation Flights) Tropical Cyclone Bulletin/Warning Gale Warning

Climate Information, Monitoring and Prediction El Niño/La Niña Advisories Seasonal Rainfall Outlook Monthly Situation and Outlook Operational Products Ozone Monitoring Dry Spell Outlook CLIMATE VARIABILITY / CLIMATE CHANGE-studies Farm Weather Forecasts and Advisories (FWFA) Climate Impact Assessment for Phil. Agriculture Tropical Cyclone Warning And Advisories AGROCLIMATIC SERVICES

Weather Causing Phenomena in the Philippines NORTHEAST MONSOON (AMIHAN) TROPICAL CYCLONE L L L L SOUTHWEST MONSOON (HABAGAT) INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE

Climate Classifications: Type I Two pronounced season dry from November to April and wet for the rest of the year. maximum rain period coincides with the peak of the southwest monsoon (July to September). Type II No dry season with a very pronounced maximum rainfall from November to April and wet for the rest of the year. Type III Season not very pronounced relatively dry November to April and wet for the rest of the year Type IV Rainfall more or less evenly distributed through out the year

Tropical Cyclones tracks in the Western North Pacific (WNP) Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2006 1728 TC ( 1148 entered the PAR) 66% of TC in in WNP enter or formed in the PAR *Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

Number of Tropical Cyclones Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines (1948-2005) 15 10 0.4 13 5 0.3 7 9 17 0.5 29 27 1.0 48 43 1.6 117 75 3.3 121 62 3.2 100 72 3.0 64 84 2.6 78 2.1 33 46 1.4 20 40 60 80 120 140 160 180 200 Number of Tropical Cyclones JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Months Mean Crossing Philippines Number of Tropical Cyclones which did not cross the Philippines Peak month of T.C. activity is from July to October Most number of T.C. crossing the Philippines are during October and November *Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events The Ormoc catastrophic flash flood (November 5, 1991): More than 5000 people perished. Unusually heavy, continuous rains brought by Trop.Storm Uring caused landslides and flashfloods and dam-break-like effect at the collapse of Anilao Bridge Cherry Hill tragedy (August 1999): Three consecutive days of persistent moderate to heavy rains caused mud to cascade into the Cherry Hill leaving 378 houses damaged and 58 people killed Baguio-La Trinidad landslides (July 2001): A record-breaking 24-hour rainfall of 1085.8 millimeters was registered at Baguio City causing widespread landslides and flashfloods, killing 85 persons in Baguio and La Trinidad area alone. Due to Typhoon Feria Payatas garbage-slide (July 10, 2000): Continuous moderate to heavy monsoon rains over Metro Manila for several days caused the collapse of the Payatas garbage pile, resulting in 224 deaths and 100 houses destroyed

Extreme Weather Events: Tragedies after tragedies… Camiguin flashfloods (November 7, 2001): Heavy continuous rains for about 10 hours caused flashfloods carrying landslide debris of boulders, uprooted trees, loose soil, etc. rushing from the mountainside burying 134 residents alive and damaging vegetation and structures. Southern Leyte-Surigao disaster (December 2003): Several landslides and flash-floods in Mindanao and Southern Leyte caused by days of persistent rains resulted in 198 deaths in S. Leyte and Mindanao (Agusan- Surigao) Aurora-Infanta floods (November-December 2004): Heavy rains triggered major landslides; cleansed the forests of its debris resulting in heavy damage and casualty downstream along rivers and coastal areas in eastern Luzon (1,068 dead, damage estimate - P7,615.98M)

Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events GUINSAUGON LANDSLIDE The whole island of Leyte experienced more than 300% of normal rainfall in February These extreme weather events have one thing in common – persistent torrential rains, causing landslides and flash floods, killing people and destroying properties along its path.

Plans for these 2 weeks workshop Evaluation of the six available models run in CCAM at 60 Km resolution Compute for the projected changes for the Philippines: 2041 to 2060 – 2050 near future 2081 to 2100 – 2090 end of the 21st century Parameters Precipitation Maximum, Minimum and Mean Temperature Relative Humidity, Mean Sea Level Pressure Winds, Evaporation Detection of tropical cyclones

Lastly… To learn how to install and use CCAM To have a trial version of CCAM?

THANK YOU “tracking the sky . . . helping the country”