GFDL’s unified regional-global weather and climate modeling system is designed for all temporal-spatial scales Examples: Regional cloud-resolving Radiative-Convective.

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Presentation transcript:

From Large-Eddy-Simulation to climate modeling: GFDL's unified global-regional non-hydrostatic modeling framework S. J. Lin

GFDL’s unified regional-global weather and climate modeling system is designed for all temporal-spatial scales Examples: Regional cloud-resolving Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (0.5 km) Global cloud-system resolving experiments (3.5 km) High-resolution present-day climate simulations (12.5 km) 5-10 day hurricane predictions (25 km) Intra-seasonal TC predictions (25 km) TC seasonal predictions (25km) Simulations of TC climatology and response to warming scenarios (50km) IPCC AR5 high-res time-slice experiments (25 & 50 km) IPCC AR5 coupled chemistry-aerosol-climate system (200 km) Grid size

The GFDL FV3: Finite-Volume Dynamical Core on the Cubed-Sphere 4th order Finite-Volume algorithms with a true Lagrangian vertical coordinate (Lin 2004) Designed for fine-grained parallelism (MPI, openMP, and GPU); scalable to ~million cores (IBM BG) at cloud-resolving resolution Hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic, regional or global (run time options) Applicable to arbitrary non-orthogonal coordinate on a sphere (filled with quadrilateral cells) or limited area. Current global grid choice: Cubed-Sphere with two variable-resolution options (stretched and 2-way regional-global nesting)

Two non-hydrostatic solvers Semi Implicit Method (SIM) 4th order finite-volume discretization Stable for arbitrary time step size Best for mid-high to low resolution (1 km to 100 km) “Lagrangian“ Riemann Invariant Method (RIM) Based on conservation of Riemann invariants with open (for sound waves) top boundary condition Fully explicit; conditionally stable (up to CFL ~ 100 in the PBL) Best for LES and cloud-resolving simulations ( < 1 km)

Quality of present-day climate simulation: annual mean zonal wind (12.5-km) ECMWF analysis NCEP analysis NCEP analysis RMSE=1.27 (m/s) RMSE=1.09

Seasonal hurricane predictions with GFDL’s 25-km global model Observed tracks GFDL seasonal prediction

Retrospective Seasonal hurricane predictions 1990-2010 (J-A-S-O-N) (Chen and Lin 2012) 0.78 0.94 0.88 6

Predicted PDF of the Tropical Cyclones intensity (all basins 1990-2010) with the 25-km GFDL model 10-m wind Central pressure (Chen & Lin 2012)

Is it computationally feasible to perform seasonal prediction using global 3.5 km resolution model? Hybrid MPI/openMP with ~0.5 million threads

GFDL ‘s affordable ultra-high resolution regional-global model I. Nested regional-global model Regional model can be run independently or two-way nested with the global model Suitable for weather & climate II. Variable resolution global model Single model framework with smooth transition in resolution (e.g., 3.5 km over CONUS stretched to 28 km over Indian ocean)

DJF precipitation: GFDL HiRAM vs. Observation Need hi-res to provide regional details. But global uniform resolution is still too expensive  Make hi-res affordable with variable-res approach C384 stretched (~10 km over CONUS)

Some fine-scale wintertime phenomena that used to be impossible to simulate in a global model: Cloud streets off US east coast Polar low near Iceland Pineapple express

Seeing the world through cloud-ice via GFDL’s variable-resolution Weather-Climate model (3.5 km to 28 Ice Water Path: 24 Jan – 03 Feb

Final notes The GFDL FV3 is a non-hydrostatic regional-global modeling framework with no spatial or temporal scale restriction. GFDL’s high resolution climate model (essentially the same model used for IPCC AR5 assessments) has been demonstrated to possess remarkably high skill for seasonal hurricane predictions GFDL is exploring the next frontier of global modeling with non-hydrostatic cloud-system resolving capability: To provide ultra-high resolution details for regional stakeholders To resolve, not just hurricanes (easy), but also tornado-producing thunderstorms (difficult for climate models) Seasonal “tornado outbreak risk” prediction? Can we say something about climate change and the timing/frequency of tornado outbreaks in the US?

C360 (~ 25 km) L47; Held-Suarez with 4 tracers on CRAY XE6 Hybrid MPI-OpenMP (GPU-openACC version under construction)