HISTORY AND FORECAST OF CLIMATE CHANGE Kevin Law, Ph.D. WV State Climatologist Marshall University.

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Presentation transcript:

HISTORY AND FORECAST OF CLIMATE CHANGE Kevin Law, Ph.D. WV State Climatologist Marshall University

MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (°F) °F-60°FCharleston-Huntington 51°F-55°FWheeling Morgantown Parkersburg Martinsburg Beckley 46°F-50°FElkins

MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Range: Approx. 30” – 60” Low: Near Moorefield (Hardy Co.) High: Near Pickens (Randolph Co.) Most of the state 40”-50”

MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (°F) WEST VIRGINIA Mean: 51.8°F “Warm period” “Cool period” “Warm period” 1987-present 1921, 1949 Warmest years 4 of 6 warmest years have occurred since

TOTAL ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (INCHES) WEST VIRGINIA Mean: 45.16” 1930 Drought year 25.74” “Dry period” 1960s Increased precipitation trend 5 of the 6 wettest years have occurred since

ANNUAL HEATING DEGREE DAYS (BASE 65°F) WEST VIRGINIA Mean: 5296 HDD Decreasing trend in HDD Less demand for energy for heating

ANNUAL COOLING DEGREE DAYS (BASE 65°F) WEST VIRGINIA Mean: 771 CDD Increasing trend in CDD Increased demand for energy for cooling

FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS Simulations use high (A2) and low (B1) emission scenarios Simulations are intended as scenarios not forecasts because there are no assumptions about the probability of either scenario occurring.

MEAN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE (°F) B1 (low) 2035: ~2.0°F warming 2055: ~3.0°F warming 2085: ~4.0°F warming A2 (high) 2035: ~3.0°F warming 2055: ~5.0°F warming 2085: ~7.0°F warming

TEMPERATURE CHANGE (°F) MINUS Annual: ~5.0°F warming Winter: ~4.0°F warming Spring: ~3.0°F warming (least) Summer: ~5.5°F warming (greatest) Fall: ~5.0°F warming

ANNUAL NUMBER OF DAYS T MAX > 95°F Climatology: 0-10 days per year 2055: 5-30 days per year Most change is in SW West Virginia

ANNUAL MAXIMUM NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS T MAX > 95°F Climatology: 0-2 days per year 2055: 3-9 days per year Most change in SW West Virginia

ANNUAL TOTAL COOLING DEGREE DAYS Climatology: days per year 2055: days per year

ANNUAL NUMBER OF DAYS T MIN < 10°F Climatology: 0-20 days per year 2055: 0-10 days per year Northern mountains exhibit most change in West Virginia

ANNUAL NUMBER OF DAYS T MIN < 32°F Climatology: days per year 2055: days per year Most change in SW West Virginia

ANNUAL TOTAL HEATING DEGREE DAYS Climatology: days per year 2055: days per year West Virginia mountains exhibit large decrease

LENGTH OF FREEZE-FREE SEASON Climatology: days per year 2055: days per year Approx day increase

PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCE (%) FROM B1 (low) 2035: 0-3% increase 2055: 0-3% increase 2085: 3-6% increase A2 (high) 2035: 0-3% increase 2055: 0-6% increase 2085: 0-6% increase

PRECIPITATION CHANGE (%) MINUS Annual: 2-7% increase Winter: 8-20% increase Spring: 4-12% increase Summer: 0-12% decrease Fall: 4% decrease – 4% increase

ANNUAL NUMBER OF DAYS PRECIPITATION > 1 INCH Climatology: 7-11 days per year 2055: 18-24% change

MAXIMUM CONSECUTIVE NUMBER OF DAYS PRECIPITATION < 3MM Climatology: days per year 2055: 0-2 days more per year

CONCLUSIONS Increased trend in CDD More energy demand for Air Conditioning Decreasing trend in HDD Less energy demand for Heating More variability in precipitation Wetter in winter – Drier in summer Hotter and drier conditions in summer Can lead to more severe convective storms Storm related power outages