Unit 8
Unit 8 Objectives Identify the types, purpose, and elements of Predictive Service products. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of National Weather Service products. Identify ways in which firefighters can receive fire weather products and weather observations. Describe the importance of Incident Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.
Meeting Fire Management Needs Fire weather/fire potential products help: Plan daily fire management activities Plan effective control actions Determine short and long term fire potential Products developed by: Land Management Predictive Services National Weather Service (NWS)
Predictive Services Combined group of fire Intelligence Coordinators, FBANs, and Fire Meteorologists. Each GACC has a predictive services group to meet the needs of the geographic area. GACC level information is integrated into national level outlooks.
Predictive Services Reno 8-5-S290-EP
Predictive Services Products and Services Monitors, analyzes and predicts fire weather, fire danger and interagency fire management resource impact. Produce a range of combined fire weather/fire danger outlooks for predetermined predictive service zones. Zones based on RAWS climatology and topography.
Northwest Area Predictive Services Zones Products and Services Products are targeted to aid resource related decision-making at the GACC and national levels Northwest Area Predictive Services Zones
Predictive Services Suite of Products 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Monthly Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook National Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook Seasonal Assessment Outlook Other products
7 Day Significant Fire Potential 8-9-S290-EP
7 Day Significant Fire Potential Predictive Services 7 Day Significant Fire Potential Provides fire potential for a geographical area The product includes: Weather/fuels discussion Current and projected fuel dryness Fire potential discussion map Significant weather High risk days Resource concerns
Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook Fire danger report and map 8-11-S290-EP
Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook Predictive Services Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook Monthly: Generated by the GACCs Includes: A brief discussion of general weather/fire danger for the GA A brief discussion on current GA fuel anomalies/fuel moisture Predicted temperature and precipitation Fire potential map
National Wildland Fire Outlook Predictive Services National Wildland Fire Outlook 8-13-S290-EP
National Wildland Fire Outlook Predictive Services National Wildland Fire Outlook National Monthly Outlook: Issued monthly and year-round Compiled from each GA monthly fire weather/fire danger outlook Product includes: GACC narratives Current and projected fire statistics Fire potential map
Predictive Services Seasonal Assessments Issued on both Geographic and National levels prior to fire season Product typically includes: Executive summary Introduction and objectives Current situation Comparison of current and historical conditions Climate, weather, fire forecasts and outlooks
Predictive Services Seasonal Assessments Predicted fire occurrence and resource needs Future scenarios and probabilities Considerations, concerns and management implications Summary, discussions and recommendations 8-16-S290-EP
Other Products and Services Predictive Services Other Products and Services Weather briefings Daily summaries of NWS fire weather forecasts Long term precipitation monitoring Smoke management summaries Spot forecasts for planned burns and smoke management (California) IMET or technical specialist support by qualified GACC meteorologists
National Weather Service Consists of over 120 offices Has a variety of operational programs, including fire weather
National Weather Service Products and Services The Fire Weather Program: A core suite of standardized fire weather products Consultation services for prevention, suppression, and other land management activities Optional products at regional and local office discretion Products issued by core forecast staff at local office for fire weather service area (fire weather zones)
National Weather Service Products and Services The Fire Weather Program
Fire Weather Planning Forecast National Weather Service Fire Weather Planning Forecast 8-21-S290-EP
Fire Weather Forecasts and Statements provided by the National Weather Service Fire Weather Planning Forecasts NFDRS Forecasts Smoke Management Forecasts Spot Weather Forecasts Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings Wildland Fire Danger Statements
Fire Weather Planning Forecast National Weather Service Fire Weather Planning Forecast A narrative or tabular zone-type product Purpose: Pre-suppression for fire management Initial attack readiness Daily staffing levels Prevention program Account for local topography Is not site specific
Fire Weather Planning Forecast National Weather Service Fire Weather Planning Forecast FWF Elements Include: Fire weather headlines and discussion Sky and weather Temperature Relative humidity Surface (20-foot) wind 3 to 7 day outlook
National Weather Service Fire Weather Planning Forecast Elements may include: Haines Index Ridge Top Winds Mixing Heights Transport Winds Dispersion Clearing Index Chance of wetting rain (CWR)
Lightning Activity Level LAL 1 – no thunderstorms LAL 2 – isolated thunderstorms, light rainfall LAL 3 – widely scattered thunderstorms, light to moderate rainfall LAL 4 – scattered thunderstorms, moderate rainfall LAL 5 – numerous thunderstorms, moderate to heavy rainfall LAL 6 – same as LAL 3, but dry.
National Weather Service Spot Weather Forecast Spot Forecasts: site specific issued to fit time, topography and weather of a specific location Used for: wildfires prescribed burns spray projects hazmat situations other special projects
National Weather Service Spot Weather Forecast NWS Spot national standard for spot requests request/reply web program should be used when possible
Spot Weather Forecast Request Form National Weather Service Spot Weather Forecast Request Form Request Form includes: Project name Requesting agency Location Fuel type Observations Forecast elements Remarks Submit 8-29-S290-EP
Spot Weather Forecast Returned National Weather Service Spot Weather Forecast Returned Completed Spot Forecast Valid time period Topo maps of location Location information Elevation, aspect Fuel type Observations Requested parameters Forecast Discussion Forecast elements Feedback
Steps in Obtaining Good Spot Forecasts National Weather Service Steps in Obtaining Good Spot Forecasts Take and record representative weather observations on the fire Complete the NWS Spot request form Transmit the NWS Spot request form Provide forecaster feedback on accuracy of forecast
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch National Weather Service Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch 8-32-S290-EP
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch National Weather Service Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch The National Weather Service will issue a watch or warning to alert fire and land managers of CRITICAL or RAPIDLY CHANGING weather conditions that will potentially increase fire danger in a significant way.
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch National Weather Service Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Fire Weather Watch: High potential for red flag event in 24-72 hours May be issued in first 12 hour time period for dry thunderstorms Red Flag Warning: Issued to warn of an impending, or occurring red flag event Issued when confidence is high that red flag conditions will occur in 24 hours or less
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria National Weather Service Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria Criteria may be based on locally or regionally established thresholds General criteria may include high to extreme fire danger in combination with: Dry lightning (Ignition is or will occur) First lightning after an extremely dry period
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria National Weather Service Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria Unusually low relative humidity Very dry and unstable air (high Haines) Very strong and shifting winds that may or may not be associated with a cold front
Smoke Management Forecast National Weather Service Smoke Management Forecast Content may include: Discussion Transport winds Mixing height Stability Dispersion Local Fire Management and NWS should establish content, format, and frequency of issuance
Retrieving Fire Weather Information Internet and other Communication Main Sources Fire Weather Products: Predictive Services web sites National Predictive Services Homepage Local NWS web sites National Weather Service Homepage Alternative Sources Phone or radio communications from interagency dispatch center
Retrieving Fire Weather Information Real-time Observation Monitor and Analysis Network (ROMAN) 8-39-S290-EP
Retrieving Fire Weather Information Real-time Observation Monitor and Analysis Network (ROMAN) Weather observation retrieval web application Simple menu system Data displayed on regional or local scale
Incident Meteorologist On-Site Weather Support Incident Meteorologist 8-41-S290-EP
Incident Meteorologist On-Site Weather Support Incident Meteorologist Include NWS, land management, or state meteorologists Issue incident specific forecasts Give weather briefings Collect weather information
8-43-S290-EP
NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology On-Site Weather Support NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology Atmospheric Theodolite Meteorological Unit (ATMU) Upper air observing PIBAL and Theodolite
NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology On-Site Weather Support NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology High speed two-way satellite dish for data transmitting and receiving All Hazards Meteorological Response System (AMRS)
Fire Behavior Analyst Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN) Calculates predicted fire behavior Produces fire behavior forecast
Fire Behavior Analyst and Incident Meteorologist IMET works for FBAN IMET prepares detailed forecast FBAN then prepares fire behavior forecast FBAN IMET
Fire Behavior Forecast 8-48-S290-EP
Fire Behavior Forecast Prepared by FBA Meets needs of the fire overhead organization The Product: Interprets wildland fire calculations Describes past and expected wildland fire behavior Identifies hazards due to wildland fire for ground and aircraft activities
Unit 8 Objectives Identify the types, purpose, and elements of Predictive Service products. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of National Weather Service products. Identify ways in which firefighters can receive fire weather products and weather observations. Describe the importance of Incident Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.