Statistical corrections of Central Southwest Asia winter precipitation simulations (and forecasts!) Michael K. Tippett, IRI Matt Barlow, AER Brad Lyon,

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Presentation transcript:

Statistical corrections of Central Southwest Asia winter precipitation simulations (and forecasts!) Michael K. Tippett, IRI Matt Barlow, AER Brad Lyon, IRI

Introduction CSW Asia drought ( ). –Winter (DJFM) precipitation is key. –“May Kabul be without gold but not without snow” Tropical forcing –Recent drought associated with La Nina. –“Perfect Ocean for drought” GCMs have poor simulation skill. Is statistical correction possible?

ClimatologyVariability Elevation Precipitation related to elevation. NE Focus on NE region.

Is there any predictability? Extended GCM simulations forced by observed SSTs show little skill. Observations = CRU (New et al 2002) Period = ~1965 through winter

Approach Identify basis for predictability –Physical mechanisms. –Possible predictors. Linear regression between model output and observations (MOS). –Use model variables to predict observed anomalies. CCA.

Yang et al Negative correlation between CSW Asia precipitation and EAJS strength. Positive correlation between EAJS strength and Maritime Continent precipitation. East Asia Jet Stream

Correlation: Wind EOF1/Precip EOF1 =.66 Wind EOF1/NE =.58 First EOF of DJFM precip First EOF of DJFM 200 hPa reanalysis winds Model winds (ECHAM4.5) do not have the same variability or relation with observed precipitation.

Precipitation anomaly patterns associated with NE precipitation anomalies.

Physical connections Positive MC precipitation anomalies. Upper level convergence Southerly flow + Coriolis effect = westerly flow. Strengthened EAJS. Negative CSW Asia precipitation anomalies. Idea: Use Western Pacific model precip to predict CSW Asia precip.

MOS Details 4-month DJFM seasonal averages. Training –GCM simulations (observed SST) ~ Western Pacific precipitation. –UEA/CRU New precipitation data set interpolated to T42 grid Corrected simulation skill estimate –Leave one year out cross-validation. Forecasts –GCM forecasts made in Oct. –Forecast SST (NCEP Pacific + climatology + Stat. Atl.).

Western Pacific model precip (simulation) predicting CSW Asia precip. Leading CCA modes

Leave-one-out cross-validated anomaly correlation of MOS corrections Corrected simulation skill

GCM simulation skill

MOS Corrected Forecast DJFM Observations GCM Forecast Oct 1998

GCM Forecast Oct 1999 DJFM Observations MOS Corrected Forecast

GCM Forecast 2000 DJFM Observations MOS Corrected Forecast

DJFM Observations GCM Forecasts Oct 2001 (More models now!)

DJFM Observations MOS Corrected Forecasts

GCM Forecasts Oct 2002 Observations Reports of snow.

MOS Corrected Forecasts Observations Reports of snow.

Summary GCMs show poor simulation skill for CSW Asia winter precipitation. CSW Asia and western Pacific precipitation are associated via EAJS. –Observed winds are a good predictor. –Model winds are not. –Western Pacific model precip is a usable predictor. MOS corrections improve simulation skill. Some promising forecast results ( ).