“Consider it Advisable to Launch Attack Force Immediately”[i]: A What if? Investigation and Analysis of the Battle of Midway[i] [ i][ i] Rear Admiral Tamon Yamaguchi, IJN, as quoted by Mitsuo Fuchida and Masatake Okumiya in Midway: The Battle that Doomed Japan (Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1955), 170.

Base, on average, almost precisely modeled actual outcome

CV-5 SBD (1000lb) Base Model Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg

CV-5 TBD Base Model Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg

TF16 F4F (FP) Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg

American Carriers Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg

Japanese Carriers Base Model Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg

Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (low)

Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (high)

Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (High)

Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (Low)

Endless number of WHAT IFs? -Weather -Personality Conflicts (Fletcher & Spruance) -Radio Transmission Range -Lt. Tomonaga’s death -VT-3’s tardiness -Japanese carrier decks devoid of aircraft -Willingness of American pilots to face almost certain death -Ability of VF-6’s pilots (Thatch weave) -USS Yorktown’s late launch schedule -etc., etc., etc...