Group Decision Optimization with Delphi and Ontology A Study For DARPA Adam Pease Articulate Software Ted Gordon Consultant

. The decision is not likely to have serious negative consequenc es The decision is likely to be effective The decision can be implemente d quickly The proposed decision is plausible The decision is likely to provide useful feedback to alter future strategy The decision has reasonable cost Weights Avg.: 4 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 5 Justify Avg.: 6 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 7 Justify Avg.: 7 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 6 Justify Avg.: 8 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 9 Justify Avg.: 3 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 4 Justify Avg.: 6 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 4 Justify Governments modify school curricula to remove cultural biases Avg.: 4 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 5 Justify Avg.: 6 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 2 Justify Avg.: 7 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 6 Justify Avg.: 8 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 9 Justify Avg.: 3 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 4 Justify Avg.: 6 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 4 Justify The world implements a vastly improved disease early warning system Avg.: 4 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 5 Justify Avg.: 6 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 7 Justify Avg.: 7 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 6 Justify Avg.: 8 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 9 Justify Avg.: 3 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 4 Justify Avg.: 6 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 4 Justify UN sponsors vigorous anti- terrorist campaign among religious leaders Avg.: 4 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 5 Justify Avg.: 6 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 7 Justify Avg.: 7 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 6 Justify Avg.: 8 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 9 Justify Avg.: 3 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 4 Justify Avg.: 6 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 1 Justify

Scores of proposed decisions so far: Candidate Decisions Group Score Your Score The world implements a vastly improved disease early warning system UN sponsors vigorous anti-terrorist campaign among religious leaders Governments establish dialogs with dissidents The UN employs advanced detection systems for all of its WMD on site inspections Governments build redundancy into societal and technical infrastructure Governments modify school curricula to remove cultural biases Systematically alter policy to defuse terrorist recruitment 020 When you are satisfied with your inputs click save and it will be added to the group’s scoring.

Cell under consideration: Candidate Decision: UN sponsors vigorous anti-terrorist campaign among religious leaders“ Criterion: The decision is likely to be effective Given Value Reason 8 The question, it seems to me is whether anyone can call the religious leaders together and point them in the same direction 5As likely as not to be effective 2This is bound to backfire

Global SOFI 2005 Objectives How have the SOFI projections changed over time? Are the data sources used for the variables contained in the SOFI during the last five years still appropriate? If not what sources replace them? Has the historical data provided by these sources changed over the years? Even though history is history, some providers of data change the data they published earlier as a result of new analysis techniques, changing definitions, and late inputs from primary sources. Forecasts of each variable were made in each year that SOFI was provided; how do these forecasts compare to actual data now available in 2005? Where the forecasts differ from actuality, are reasons apparent?

Five Years of SOFI: Variables 1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 2. Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries 3. GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US) 4. Pct of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 5. CO2 atmospheric, ppm 6. Annual population additions (millions) 7. Percentage of world population unemployed 8. Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above) 9. Annual AIDS deaths (millions) 10. Life Expectancy (years) 11. Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr) 12. Debt/GNP Developing Countries (%) 13. Forest Lands (Million Hectares) 14. Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day 15. Terrorist Attacks (Number injured or killed) 16. Violent Crime 17 Countries (per 100,000 population) 17. Percentage of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free 18. School Enrollment, secondary (% school age) 19. Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries) 20. Number of countries thought to have or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons

SOFI 2005

High in 2003 and Low in 2004 The favorable data in 2003 included: –A dip in the number of wars –A dip in the ratio of debt to GDP –Relative low terrorism casualties compared to 2001 and 2004 And in 2004 the situation worsened because of –An unexpectedly high number of terrorist caused casualties –The percentage of people living in countries classed as not free increased as a result of Russia being reclassified.

SPFI

SOFI 2005 (with TIA)

Population Additions US Census Bureau, data and forecasts

Four Questions Are the data sources used for the variable still active and appropriate? YES. US CENSUS BUREAU IS AUTHORITATIVE Has the actual historical data provided by those sources changed? YES How do forecasts made in earlier years compare to actual data now available in 2005? LOWER; THE CENSUS BUREAU’S FORECASTS NOW SHOW AN UP-TICK IN POPULATION ADDITIONS LATER IN THIS DECADE. Where the forecasts differ significantly, are reasons apparent? CHANGING METHODS OF ESTIMATING AND INCORPORATION OF NEW AIDS AND HIV DATA, RATES OF SURVIVAL INTO OLD AGE, AND INCORPORATION OF THE RESULTS OF THE 2000 US CENSUS

Results Summary Example Variable Are the data sources used for the variable still active and appropriate? Has the actual historical data provided by those sources changed? How do forecasts made in earlier years compare to actual data now available in 2005? Where the forecasts differ significantly, are reasons apparent ? 1.infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) Yes. US Census Bureau:Very little The forecasts by the us census bureau have been quite consistent The small change in expectations for 2010 between forecasts come from data adjustments made by US Census Bureau. 2. Food availability cal/cap in developing countries Yes. FAOSTAT is the authoritative source. A bit and further changes can be expected as a result of FAO’s updated statistical methodologies Comparison is good even though a new extrapolation technique is being used. Artifacts of methodologies 3. GDP per capita (constant 1995 $US Yes. Source should be WDI available on line with subscription Yes, a bitExcellent comparisonForecasts are comparable 4. Percentage of households w/ access to safe water (15 most populated countries) Data sources provide data only at infrequent intervals; the most consistent seems to be WDI YesCurrent data are tracking wellReasons not apparent

Terrorism Statistics US Department of State in its annual report titled Patterns of Global Terrorism provided succinct and apparently accurate counts on the number of terrorist incidents and the number of casualties This year however, the Department changed the report’s format and omitted these statistics. The change in policy came after the release of figures that were challenged as being too low. After the controversy “…. there were over 9,000 victims of significant international terrorism last year, of which 1,907 were killed. ….”

Possible Ethics Scenarios –The rise of trans-humanism –New attitudes toward death –The designed human –The stasis of religion –From ethics to law

Women are the most significant suppliers of family labor and efficient managers of household food security. They produce and manage over 50% of all the world’s goods and services in the unpaid sectors. In addition, women (whether naturally or through acculturation) bear greater responsibility at al levels of society for nurture, education, food production, cooperative sharing volunteering and conflict resolution. Mainstream economics still treats these services of women as “un-economic” because they are usually unpaid. 1. Rural poor women have developed survival strategies that could be useful in developing local economies; yet they are largely untapped. 2. Economic theory ignores many contributions made by women and the cost of replacement of these goods and services. Added suggestions Women’s Study Round 1 Question Example

Round 2 Question Example 1. Gender Issues 2. Importance Globally 3. Being Addressed Globally 4. Importance in my Country 5. Being Addressed in my Country Traditional cropping methods used by rural women are not fully considered in the design of strategies to protect and sustain the environment. Adequate safe water sources are not available to women, as household managers for their children and families. Women are not involved in helping local communities to make a sustainable use of water. Information about means for limiting family size is often not available to women and girls. Women generally have little knowledge about how they can participate in the process of democratization. Women are largely under-represented in government bodies and in other sectors of the public sphere.

Round 2 Question Example 1. Future Development 2. Impact (positive or negative ) 3. Importance to women if it were to occur 4. Likelihood by A. Improving the efficiency of water use in agriculture by 75%. 1B. Cheap, efficient, means for providing potable water from salt or brackish sources at prices comparable to naturally available water in quantities sufficient to ease global water issues. 1D. Demonstration of methods to improve collective intelligence while reducing anti-social behavior. 1E. Demonstration of the possibility of an environmentally, economically, and culturally sustainable city of at least 1 million people. 1F. Simple, inexpensive, effective medicines and corresponding delivery systems to treat widespread diseases and epidemics

Round 3 Question Example Focus on actions May be interviews