1 Profitability of Selected Marketing Alternatives Todd D. Davis Extension Economist Clemson University

2 Objective Past Profitability from –Ability to cover cash costs? Does it Pay to Retain Ownership? –Fall Sales vs. Stockering –Fall Sales vs. Retained ownership in Kansas feedlots Can Hedging with Futures Help Reduce Risk?

3 Production Assumptions Cow-calf –100 cows, 85% calf crop, Selling 500 # steers & 450 # heifers on Sep. 10 Preconditioning –45 days, Gain 2 lbs/day (1.8 lbs/day), cost $60/hd Stockering –Feed 150 days, Gain 2.00 lbs/day (1.85 lbs/day), Selling 890# steers & 810 # heifers on March 24 Finishing –Feed 210 days, Gain 3 lbs/day, Sell 1250 # steer on May 23

4 Cost Assumptions Production costs based on Clemson Univ. Enterprise Budgets (Cow-calf, stockering, hay & forages) Finishing costs based on Kansas State University Extension Historical input costs from USDA

5 Prices are from … South Carolina weekly feeder cattle cash prices (by weight and sex) from (USDA Livestock Market News) Kansas weekly cash slaughter steers & heifers prices from (Kansas State) Daily feeder cattle and live cattle futures and options data from (Commodity Research Bureau)

6 Past Profitability -- Evaluating

7 Revenues and Total Variable Costs – SC Cow-Calf Operation ($/hd) Average Return over TVC= $150/hd

8 Revenue and Total Variable Costs – SC Cow- Calf w/ Winter Stockering Operation ($/hd) Average Return over TVC = $235/hd

9 Revenue and Total Variable Costs – SC Cow-Calf and Finishing Operation ($/hd) Average Return over TVC = $265 / hd

10 Your labor and management skills are valuable! While you may be profitable in covering your out-of-pocket expenses… Budget a return to your labor and management skills – don’t work for free! (20% of Total Variable Costs) Think about budgeting a profit margin to help finance future business investments and growth

11 Does it pay to retain ownership every year?

12 How do I know if I should retain ownership or sell now? Compare what you gain from retained ownership to what it costs… What you gain  Increased Revenue What it costs  Additional Cost of Gain + Lost Revenue (what you could get if you sell now)

13 Net Increase in Returns from Stockering vs. Fall Sales ($/hd) Average = $30/hd

14 Net Increase in Returns from Finishing vs. Fall Sales ($/hd) Average = -$7/hd

15 Know your costs! It pays to budget and to know and monitor your costs. Take the time to evaluate if it is pays to retain ownership or sell it now. –The costs and benefits can differ greatly from year-to-year!

16 Can Hedging with Futures Help With Reducing Risk?

17 What are Futures? They are contracts sold on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that allows you … –“Lock in a price” – Losses in the cash market will be offset by gains in the futures market This can be complicated – Let’s see if we can use futures/options to reduce risk –Learn mechanics at another meeting

18 Hedging Assumptions Cow-Calf – Sell October Feeder Cattle Contract on March 1, Offset Sep. 10 Winter Stockering – Sell April Feeder Cattle Contract on Oct. 1, Offset March 24 Finishing – Sell June Live Cattle Contract on Oct. 1, Offset May 24

19 Net Benefit of Hedging Fall Feeder Calf Sales – October Feeder Futures *** ($/hd) Avg. = -$30/hd *** For Educational Purposes Only! Beneficial 30% of the time Avg. = -$8/hd

20 Net Benefit of Hedging Fall Feeder Calf Sales & Stocker – October Feeder & March Feeder Futures *** ($/hd) Avg = -$28/hd *** For Educational Purposes Only! Beneficial 40% of the time! Avg = -$5/hd

21 Net Benefit of Hedging Fall Feeder Calf Sales & Finishing – October Feeder & April Live Futures *** ($/hd) Avg = -$33/hd *** For Educational Purposes Only! Beneficial 40% of the time! Avg = -$5/hd

22 Are Futures and Options Useful? Sometimes… Remember that you’re trying to protect against low prices –Futures and Options won’t “Pay” every year –Consider the revenue provided in a ‘worst case’ scenario –You can do better than the ‘naïve’ strategies used in this example!

23 Thank you for your attention! I will be happy to answer any questions you may have.