MINNI Project outcomes: downscalings for regional policy support ARIANET s.r.l. via Gilino, 9 – Milano (MI) – ITALY - tel – fax – G. Calori Italian-Polish workshop - Warsaw, 17 March 2006

“Framework” Directive on ambient air quality assessment and management (96/62/EC) and Daughter Directives (1999/30/EC): limit values for SO 2, NO 2, NO x, PM, Pb (2000/69/EC): C 6 H 6 and CO (2002/3/EC): O 3 (2004/107/EC): heavy metals and PAHs Air quality standards – LV and MOT Assessment and management: current status policy scenarios Measurements + emission inventory + modelling Air quality assessment: EU context (on a yearly basis) (“supplementary assesment methods”)

Italy: regional plans and programmes Develop coherent evaluations, taking into account: local features (sources, topography & land-use, meteorology…) national (and international) context Model-based + monitoring, to support the design of action plans Regional air quality assessment

3D atmospheric modellingIntegrated assessment modelling AMSRAINS-Italy (off-line) (interactive) regional downscalings MINNI AMS & RAINS-Italy

base-case reconstruction, nested into national-scale policy (regional / national / EU)  detailed future emission scenario direct 3D simulation with CTM (chemical-transport model – same as MINNI AMS) comparison and scenario assessment Steps: Downscaling examples - aspects: emissions meteorology concentrations scenarios Regional downscalings: approach  multi-scale, non-linearities, pollutants inter-dependencies

Piemonte Valle d’Aosta Veneto N Italy  x = 4 km  x = 2 km Regional downscalings Current status  x = 20 km National scale

Piemonte

Regional emission inventory (INEMAR) “Line” 1401 arcs 8 activities (ton/year) “Area” 1286 municipalities 81 activities “Point” 107 plants, 735 stacks 67 activities

Piemonte Emission inventories integration Foreign EMEP Lombardia INEMAR National (APAT) Piemonte INEMAR

Piemonte Emissions: model input TIME MODULATION Inventory data (munic.) Modulation profiles (daily, weekly, yearly) Hourly gridded & speciated emissions SPACE DISAGGREGATION Highways Residential Deciduous Thematic data NMVOC SPECIATION & PM DIM. CLASSES Speciation & dimensional profiles

Chemical boundary conditions NO 2, h 09 National- -scale simulation Boundary conditions Regional scale simulation

Piemonte Meteorology Italy (RAMS) Piemonte (MINERVE) WindTemperature

Piemonte Monitoring network model verification combined model-measurements AQ assessment

Piemonte Comparison with monitoring data Yearly avg. X backg. traffic ENEL Station type SO 2 NO 2 O3O3 Benzene

Piemonte Comparison with monitoring data Monthly means & avg. days Torino Lingotto NO 2 monthly means O 3 monthly means Alpignano Biella (via don Sturzo) O 3 avg. summer day

Piemonte Yearly assessment Map of indicators: health NO 2 Yearly avg. Benzene Yearly avg. Ozone Avg. of 8hr daily max Limit: 40  g m -3 Limit: 5  g m -3 Limit: 120  g m -3, less than 25 days/year

Piemonte Yearly assessment Map of indicators: ecosystems NO x Yearly avg. SO 2 Yearly avg. Limit: 30  g m -3 Limit: 20  g m -3

Piemonte Future scenarios A. vehicles fleet at year 2008 B.introduction of selective traffic ban zones (ZTL) for municipalities above inhabitants C. building heating sector: implementation of rules on fuel use and boilers + growth/adaptation of buildings stock

Piemonte Scenario: vehicles fleet at year 2008 Projection of vehicles fleet – Hypothesis: use of “age curves” for gasoline and diesel vehicles future sells ( ): same gasoline/diesel partition (51% vs. 49%) Euro IV (COPERT III methodology)..... Example: gasoline cars > 1400 cm 3 (COPERT classes)

Piemonte Emissions scenario: vehicles fleet at year 2008 Emissions [t/y] Variation respect to 2003

Piemonte Scenario: vehicles fleet at year 2008 Results on concentrations - 1 NO 2 yearly avg. Relative var. Absolute var. Base: year 2001

Piemonte Scenario: vehicles fleet at year 2008 Results on concentrations - 2 O 3 hot season Avg. of daily maxima: relative var. AOT40 for vegetation: relative var. Base: year 2001

Veneto

Yearly assessment NO 2 Yearly avg. O 3 AOT40 vegetation Limit: 40  g m -3 Limit:  g m -3 h

Veneto Future scenarios A.vehicles fleet at year 2010 B.construction of Superstrada Pedemontana Veneta (SPV)

Vehicles fleet at 2010 Construction of SPV NO 2 yearly avg. – Absolute var. Veneto Future emissions scenarios Results on concentrations - 1

Vehicles fleet at 2010 Construction of SPV O 3 : AOT40 – Relative var. Veneto Future emissions scenarios Results on concentrations - 2

Northern Italy

Future scenarios A. thermal power plants at year 2010 B.introduction of PM retrofit filters on off-road vehicles C. -30% reduction of emissions from building heating sector

Processing from APAT 2000 national inventory data Northern Italy Base case emissions Diffuse emissions (4 km) + thermal power plants Example of daily winter cycle - NO

Northern Italy Thermal power plants at year Emissions Variations of NO x emissions decrease increase newi kg/day Load curves by plant type Data from Ministry of Industry & Authority for Electricity and Gas

Isosurfaces at 10 and 20 ppb Example: SO 2 Northern Italy Concentrations 27 54

Northern Italy Power plants scenario: results on concentrations - 1 NO 2 avg., winter Base case Variations ppb

Northern Italy Power plants scenario: results on concentrations - 2 O 3 avg. of daily max Base case Variations ppb

Northern Italy Power plants scenario: results on concentrations - 3 PM 10 avg., winter Base case Variations

3D atmospheric modellingIntegrated assessment modelling AMSRAINS-Italy (off-line) (interactive) regional scenarios

future regional energy pathways regional control options Regione Piemonte Current work - 1 Regional scenarios with RAINS-Italy Implementation of: Use of RAINS-Italy to study regional scenarios, harmonized with national framework impacts on health & environment effectiveness Analysis of:

Current work - 2 Direct 3D atmospheric modelling Whole Italy at 4 km (yearly) Different year (2003), at 20 and 4 km …other regions?