OYUNJARGAL Lamjav Climate review for 2012/2013 Winter and 2013 summer outlook over Mongolia FOCRA II, Beijing, China 8-10 April 2013 Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, Mongolia

Climate review for 2012/2013 Winter

MSLP & Anomaly - December

MSLP & Anomaly - January

MSLP & Anomaly - February

winter temperature anomaly, o C / o C/ Temperature variation -1.9 o C T avg =-20.3 o C ΔT avg =-1.9 o C 2.8 o C -0.3 o C -7.5 o C -2.0 o C -3.6 o C -2.6 o C 1.4 o C -0.7 o C -5.9 o C -2.2 o C -4.2 o C Dec Jan Feb

Precipitation variation winter precipitation anomaly, o C R avg =3.3mm ΔR avg =147.7% Dec Jan Feb 109% 100% 271% Dec Jan Feb 246% 40% 30% Dec Jan Feb 397% 13% 43% Dec Jan Feb 397% 341% 0%

Notable event December was relatively cold (-3.8 o C) and snowy (207%). 1 st 3 rd 2 nd 4 rd /-51.2 o C, the coldest in last 33 years / Absolute minimum temperature in December /-51.2 o C, the coldest in last 33 years / Number of days with minimum temperature less than -30 o C 1 st 2 nd 3 rd

Summary Temperature anomaly was below normal and ranged between 1.9 and -5.5 o C. For spatial distribution, the most part of central and eastern region of the country experienced o C colder than normal winter. Above normal precipitation has observed almost all over the country. As a result of this snowfall, more than 80% of the territory covered by snow during this winter. Precipitation in December and February was above normal. December 2012 was 4rd coldest and 3 rd wettest month since 1971.

2013 summer outlook

Methods Lagged –correlation method –lead time: 6 month “Extreme” statistical model - lead time: 6 month Statistical downscaling of TCC, GCM –lead time: 1 month Statistical downscaling of APCC, GCM - lead time: 1-3 month

Temperature – summer 2013 June July August Above normal Normal

Precipitation –summer 2013 June July August Above normal Normal Below normal

Verification of last winter outlook Region Month Temperature Anomaly Precipitation ratio (%) ForeObsForeObs West DecNN\BAA\B JanBA\NAB\N FebNNAA Center DecNBAA JanN\B A\NB FebNBAN\A East DecNBAA JanNN\BAA FebNBAB\A Gobian DecNBAA JanNN\AAA\B FebNN\BA\NN\A

Summary Temperature is expected to be mostly near normal and o C above normal Precipitation – near normal throughout the country almost in all months.

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