Climate Scenarios and Water Projects at the Canadian Institute for Climate Studies Trevor Murdock, M.Sc. Canadian Institute for Climate Studies 19 November 2004

Outline 1.Canadian Institute for Climate Studies BC Water Model ProjectBC Water Model Project 2.Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios Project Scenarios for water and hydrologyScenarios for water and hydrology 3.Summary

Canadian Institute for Climate Studies Meteorological Service of Canada and Province of BC launch CICS to:1993 Meteorological Service of Canada and Province of BC launch CICS to: –“further the understanding of the climate system, its variability and potential for change and to further the application of that understanding to decision making in both the public and private sectors.” Climate Research Network Climate Research Network –replaced by Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences

Canadian Institute for Climate Studies 1995-present Climate Applications Projects:1995-present Climate Applications Projects: –Climate Severity Index, Environmental Indicators for BC (Province) and Canada (Canadian Ministers of the Environment), Industry (Forestry, Natural Gas, Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency), Regional Districts, ClimExec, Outreach and Education (C-CIARN BC, BC Climate Exchange, Royal BC Museum), Water Balance (BC) 1995-present Seasonal Climate Predictions1995-present Seasonal Climate Predictions 1995-present Climate Network Newsletter1995-present Climate Network Newsletter 1999-present CCIS Scenarios Project1999-present CCIS Scenarios Project

BC Water Balance Model Watershed-based approach that integrates the natural and built environmentsWatershed-based approach that integrates the natural and built environments User-friendly online model to inform and evaluate land use planning decisions’ ability to meet stormwater management objectives, at the scale of the individual development site and the watershed.User-friendly online model to inform and evaluate land use planning decisions’ ability to meet stormwater management objectives, at the scale of the individual development site and the watershed.

Low impact development involves reducing impacts of stormwater runoff using various "source controls“ whose effectiveness varies with design, precipitation patterns, soil type, among other factors.Low impact development involves reducing impacts of stormwater runoff using various "source controls“ whose effectiveness varies with design, precipitation patterns, soil type, among other factors. Overall performance of source controls of interest to developers, homeowners & local gov’t.Overall performance of source controls of interest to developers, homeowners & local gov’t. Canadian Institute for Climate Studies worked with BC Water Balance Model to provide option to include information from scenarios of future climate over the next centuryCanadian Institute for Climate Studies worked with BC Water Balance Model to provide option to include information from scenarios of future climate over the next century

Canadian Climate Impacts & Scenarios Project - Brief History Launched in 1999 by Adaptation and Impacts Research Group of ECLaunched in 1999 by Adaptation and Impacts Research Group of EC Staff:Staff: –Dr. Elaine Barrow Co-Principal Investigator (AIRG, Regina) –Dr. Philippe Gachon Co-principal Investigator (AIRG- Ouranos, Montreal) –Trevor Murdock Senior Research Associate & Webmaster (CICS, Victoria) –AIRG provides project direction and support staff – CICS & Ouranos provide support staff

Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios Project - Brief History To encourage the use of a consistent set of climate change scenarios by the VIA research community in Canada:To encourage the use of a consistent set of climate change scenarios by the VIA research community in Canada: –provide national consistent climate change scenarios from several GCMs over Canada and North America following IPCC guidelines –background information, tools, user assistance, training, workshops –promote nationally-consistent framework for scenario development –develop and maintaining a capacity to support VI&A research –involve scenario user groups in scenarios development

Currently over 800 registered users, March 2002 largest sector was water Usage statistics for 2002-Feb 2004 Avg ~20-30,000 page views per month

Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios Project - Future Plans Current funding ends March 2005.Current funding ends March Seeking government & industry consortium funding to expand:Seeking government & industry consortium funding to expand: –Paleoclimate –Extremes –Observations –Indices –Downscaling tools –Training –International collaboration

Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios Project - Interface

Summary InstituteInstitute –Individual projects Scenarios websiteScenarios website –Online resources –Research into use of scenarios Water is one of the major sectors interested in using climate informationWater is one of the major sectors interested in using climate information