Office of the Chief Economist The Housing Outlook David F. Seiders Chief Economist Presentation to: The NAHB Construction Forecast Conference April 26,

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Presentation transcript:

Office of the Chief Economist The Housing Outlook David F. Seiders Chief Economist Presentation to: The NAHB Construction Forecast Conference April 26, 2007

Office of the Chief Economist NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index 2

Office of the Chief Economist Net Home Sales at Large Builders (000s, SAAR, 3-Month Moving Avg., 30 Companies) 3

Office of the Chief Economist S&P/C-S House Price Index ( Percent Change, Month-to-Month, Annualized, 3 Mo. MA, SA Series) Composite 20 Composite 10

Office of the Chief Economist % of Housing Stock (right scale) Vacant Year-Round Housing Units on the Market (000s, 3-Quarter Moving Average) (Percent) No. of Units (left scale) (left scale) 5

Office of the Chief Economist Vacant Year-Round Housing Units: For-Sale & For-Rent (000s, 3-Quarter Moving Average) For-Rent For-Sale 6

Office of the Chief Economist Fed Funds Rate Target: Nominal & Real Percent Nominal Real 7

Office of the Chief Economist Prime Mortgage Rates Percent Fixed-Rate Mortgages Adjustable-Rate Mortgages 8

Office of the Chief Economist ARM Share Of Mortgages For Home Purchase Percent 9

Office of the Chief Economist Payroll Employment Growth Percent change (Y/Y) 10

Office of the Chief Economist Single-Family Home Sales (New and Existing) (Thousands of Units, SAAR) 11

Office of the Chief Economist Single-Family Housing Starts (Thousands of Units, SAAR) 12

Office of the Chief Economist Multifamily Housing Starts: By Type Thousands of units, Seasonally Adjusted 5 or more units 2 to 4 units 13

Office of the Chief Economist Multifamily Starts: Condo Vs. Rental (000s, SAAR, 3-Quarter Moving Average) Rental Condo 14

Office of the Chief Economist Manufactured Home Shipments (Thousands of Units, SAAR) 15

Office of the Chief Economist Total New Housing Units (Thousands of Units, SAAR) 16

Office of the Chief Economist Residential Remodeling (Billions $2000) 17

Office of the Chief Economist Residential Fixed Investment (Billions 2000 $, SAAR) 18