Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus 5 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim,

2 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Outline Quick review of D-PHASE Visualisation Platform and Data Archive More on atmospheric models list of output variables model products alerts Dry-runs Timetable Organisation

3 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system

4 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) End-to-end forecasting system

5 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric models: ensembles COSMO-LEPS (COSMO) 10 km; +132h; COSMO-LEPS EFI (MeteoSwiss) MOGREPS (Met Office, United Kingdom) 25 km; +54h SREPS (INM, Spain) 27 km, +72h COSMO-SREPS (COSMO) 10 km, +72h PEPS (SRNWP) 7 km, +42h micro-PEPS (DWD for D-PHASE) 2 km; +18h

6 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) End-to-end forecasting system

7 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric models: high resolution MM5 (University of Hohenheim) 2 km (?); +24h (?) COSMO-models (COSMO) 2.2 km; +18h 2.8 km; +30h, +48h, +21h AROME (Météo-France) 4 km (output grid); +30h MOLOCH (ISAC-CNR, Italy) 2.2 km; +39h GEM-LAM (EC, Canada) 2.5 km; +24h MOLOCH, MM5, and WRF outside of COPS domain ALADIN and QBOLAM at coarser resolution

8 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric models: high resolution and others …

9 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric models: driving models and others …

10 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) End-to-end forecasting system

11 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Hydrological catchments

12 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Flooding of August 2005 in Switzerland Runoff at Hagneck (Aare, 5170 km 2 ), IT: , 00 UTC Observed runoff Inner-quartile range of the ensemble S. Jaun, IACETH

13 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Sea-level forecast for Lago Maggiore IST-SUPSI

14 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) End-to-end forecasting system QUALITY ASSESSED

15 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Common (centralised) platforms Visualisation Platform (VP): to visualise (display) all products and all alerts; main source of information for forecasters and end users (and possibly also useful for COPS mission planning team) interface for (some of) the users to submit their feedback on the available products and alerts, respectively realised by Next Generation Software (Salzburg)

VP, level 1: Alpine region select forecast range days today select accumulation time Σ06hΣ12hΣ24hΣ03hΣ48hΣ72hmax tomorrow feedback go to: model productsmonitoring products

VP, level 2: Alpine sub-region, country det model 4 forecaster 2 ensemble 3 44% 57% select forecast range days today select accumulation time Σ06hΣ12hΣ24hΣ03hΣ48hΣ72hmax tomorrow feedback go to: model productsnowcasting productsmonitoring products

00 Tue show 2D field VP, level 3-a: target area Wed 17  03h  06h  12h  24h  03h  06h  12h  24h  03h  06h  12h  24h ensemble system 3 IT: UTC deterministic model 4 IT: UTC deterministic model 7 IT: UTC max: 31mm / 03h on Tue at 21 UTC (mean: 22mm / 03h; min: 1mm / 03h) max: 53mm / 06h on Tue at 21 UTC (mean: 38 mm / 06h; min: 12mm / 06h) max: 80mm / 12h on Wed at 03 UTC (mean: 54mm / 12h; min: 21mm / 12h) max: 96mm / 24h on Wed at 06 UTC (mean: 68mm / 24h; min: 31mm / 24h) max: 55mm / 03h on Tue at 15 UTC max: 61mm / 06h on Tue at 16 UTC max: 61mm / 12h on Tue at 16 UTC max: 61mm / 24h on Tue at 16 UTC max: 20mm / 03h on Tue at 16 UTC max: 20mm / 06h on Tue at 16 UTC show thresholds select forecast range days today & tomorrow now 58% 24%36%63% 52% 38% 46% 52% 78%54%59% 50%44% 70% 64% 88% example for today & tomorrow differences for days 3 – 5: bins of 6 hrs (rather than 3/1) & 12/24/48/72 hrs sums (rather than 03/06/12/24) show meteogram feedback go to: model productsnowcasting productsmonitoring products

19 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) VP, level 2: Alpine sub-region, country det model 4 forecaster 2 ensemble 3 44% 57% select forecast range days today select accumulation time Σ06hΣ12hΣ24hΣ03hΣ48hΣ72hmax tomorrow feedback go to: model productsnowcasting productsmonitoring products

00 Tue show 2D field VP, level 3-h: impact area (catchment) Wed 17  03h  06h  12h  24h  03h  06h  12h  24h ensemble system 3 IT: UTC deterministic model 4 IT: UTC hyd 2, IT: UTC max: 31mm / 03h on Tue at 21 UTC (mean: 22mm / 03h; min: 1mm / 03h) max: 53mm / 06h on Tue at 21 UTC (mean: 38 mm / 06h; min: 12mm / 06h) max: 80mm / 12h on Wed at 03 UTC (mean: 54mm / 12h; min: 21mm / 12h) max: 96mm / 24h on Wed at 06 UTC (mean: 68mm / 24h; min: 31mm / 24h) max: 55mm / 03h on Tue at 15 UTC max: 61mm / 06h on Tue at 16 UTC max: 61mm / 12h on Tue at 16 UTC max: 61mm / 24h on Tue at 16 UTC max: 157 m 3 /s on Tue at 16 UTC show thresholds select forecast range days today & tomorrow now 58% 24%36%63% 52% 38% 46% 52% 78%54%59% 50%44% 70% 64% 88% show meteogram feedback go to: model productsnowcasting productsmonitoring products max: 171 m 3 /s on Tue at 17 UTC hyd 6, IT: UTC

21 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Common (centralised) platforms Data Archive (DA) to archive all data, alerts, and feedbacks; mainly for verification purposes also stores all COPS and GOP data physically based at the MPI in Hamburg THANKS!

22 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) List of participants Many (status as of 28 February 2007) …

23 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) More on atmospheric models list of output variables final version of document model products specification document should be finalised as soon as possible; waiting for feedback from COPS generation of atmospheric model products ('quicklooks') with a common GrADS script kindly provided by COPS (Matthias Grzeschik and Hans- Stefan Bauer, University of Hohenheim) display of model products on D-PHASE Visualisation Platform as well as at COPS OC alerts THANKS!

24 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007 Pilot users only: CLEPS/Montani, MOGREPS/Robertson, MM5/Bauer, COSMOCH2/Ament, LAMI7/Cesari, ISACMOL/Davolio, DIMOSOP/Ranzi, and PREVAH/Jaun&Zappa. Very useful: it triggered a lot of activities; we all realised that there still is a lot to be done; it showed us that our aim of a state-of-the-art distributed end-to-end forecasting system is realistic; it confirmed that D-PHASE indeed has the potential to become a very successful demonstration project; all in all a good motivation for the time (and work!) ahead.

25 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007 Visualisation Platform (VP): first version of level 1 running xml upload and visualisation successful display of model products not yet available (as are a few other things) VP will remain online, also in between the dry-runs: (password-protection will be enabled shortly before the DOP) Data Archive (DA): upload and retrieval successfully tested More details tomorrow (  Claudia Wunram)

26 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Timetable Dry-runs:  26 February – 2 March 2007  29 March – 4 April 2007  24 April – 30 April 2007 Ramp-up:  24 May – 31 May 2007 D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP):  1 June – 30 November 2007

27 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Organisation Steering Committee Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D), Bouttier, Richard (F), Buzzi, Frustaci, Ranzi, Rossa (I), Mylne (UK) Working Groups WG-DI: Data interface chair: Andrea Montani, ARPA-SIM (I) WG-HEU: Hydrology and end users co-chairs: Roberto Ranzi, U Brescia (I), Christoph Hegg, WSL (CH) WG-VER: Verification chair: Manfred Dorninger, U Vienna (A) WG-DP: Data policy chair Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss (CH) Project Coordinator: marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch For details:

28 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) new template …