Making the World Safer BB05MSB502 – High-Resolution MET Modeling and Probabilistic Weather for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (AT&D) Objectives: 1) Perform research and development to extend, validate and maintain existing weather uncertainty methods and work to make this functionality suitable for ingest by SCIPUFF, as part of accurate high-resolution meteorological (MET) predictions in DTRA’s operational atmospheric transport and dispersion (AT&D) capability, and 2) perform research and development to extend, validate and maintain the mesoscale model’s capabilities, including providing to DTRA operational reachback support for troubleshooting and configuration of DTRA MET modeling software and hardware. Description of Effort: Determine sufficient ensemble members and appropriate resolution to generate data fields with appropriate weather uncertainty using existing models. A hierarchy of ensemble/uncertainty techniques will be studied, so that a system can be designed that will “gracefully degrade” when less than optimal data are available. The primary methods studied will include Bayesian Model Averaging, Linear Covariance Calibration, and Deformation field analysis. To further research, develop, extend, validate and maintain the mesoscale model capabilities, including providing support for model troubleshooting. Task will include transitioning of modeling at DTRA to use MM5 and mesoscale FDDA, and investigate how MM5 may be made more effective for providing data in the PBL and in urban areas. Major Goals/Milestones by Fiscal Year: FY05: Real-time in-house Relocatable On-demand Forecast System (ROFS) based on MM5 modeling system for supporting DTRA HPAC applications and reachback support. Probabilistic weather research for AT&D. FY06: Expanded ROFS capabilities including continuous data assimilation. Realtime and operational reachback support to DTRA for MET modeling (e.g., 2006 Winter Olympics). Customized MM5 and WRF-NMM outputs to better support HPAC/SCIPUFF. Improved physical, temporal and numerical coupling of MM5 and SCIPUFF. Continue ensemble work for AT&D. FY07: Continued work on DTRA mesoscale modeling system, tighter coupling to HPAC/SCIPUFF, probabilistic MET inputs and new MET model parameters for SCIPUFF. Dipole Pride 26 with AT&D data to evaluate effect of data assimilation and model resolution on SCIPUFF predictions. PI contact info: David Stauffer, PSU, Benefits of Proposed Technology: Recommendations for how to provide the best information for the level of data available. System will be rapidly relocatable and able to assimilate high resolution surface mesonet data and other local asynoptic data sources which may be important for fine-scale transport and dispersion within the boundary layer. Improved AT&D accuracy using advanced ensemble methods to represent MET uncertainty. Challenges: Developing the system to provide optimal performance for meteorological and AT&D forecasts in the boundary layer. Expanding the capacity of mesoscale models to incorporate new initialization data sets. Investigate mesoscale improvement that could impact AT&D, and representation of uncertainty in Maturity of Technology: 6.2/6.3 Capability/Thrust Area: CB Warfare Hazard Environment Prediction TITAN Corporation - DTRA01-03-D-0013, 0004