Faults in Focus: Earthquake Science Accomplishments Thomas H. Jordan Director, Southern California Earthquake Cente r 28 February 2014

Land-Use Policies & Planning Risk = Probable Loss (lives & dollars) = Hazard × Exposure × Fragility ÷ Resilience Hazard × Exposure × Fragility ÷ Resilience Structural & nonstructural vulnerability Extent & density of built environment Faulting, shaking, tsunami, landsliding, liquefaction Disaster response, insurance, CAT bonds Earthquake Engineering & Building Codes Eqk Preparedness & Emergency Response Hazard Characterization is the Key to Risk Reduction

Direct Economic Loss ($ billions) Economic Losses in Four Recent U.S. Earthquakes > $40 billion

17 Jan 1994 Northridge Earthquake (M6.7) occurred on an unknown blind thrust fault… mainshock aftershocks N N

Science Accomplishments Since Northridge, earthquake science sponsored by the USGS and NSF has –improved our understanding of seismic hazards for land-use planning, earthquake engineering, earthquake preparedness, and emergency management –enabled new technologies for tracking earthquake cascades, including operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and earthquake early warning (EEW) Earthquake origin time

Southern California Seismic Network in Development of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) High-performance stations

2. Improved mapping of seismic activity

Northridge fault in yellow Other blind thrust faults in red LA center Southern California Fault Model (2013) 3. Improved mapping of active faults

Projected losses $82 B - $252 B 3, ,000 fatalities 142, ,000 displaced households 30, ,000 tons of debris Puente Hills Earthquake Scenarios (Magnitude 7.1 to 7.5) Percent Building Loss M7.2 Field et al. (2005) 4. Better earthquake scenarios

5. Deployment of dense geodetic networks to measure deformation Pacific-North America plate motion 50 mm/yr North American plate Pacific plate San Andreas Fault Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN)

North American plate Pacific plate San Andreas Fault Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) 5. Deployment of dense geodetic networks to measure deformation Pacific-North America plate motion 50 mm/yr

UCERF2 Earthquakes Active Faults Tectonic Motions 6. Integration of seismic, geodetic, and geologic data into probabilistic earthquake rupture forecasts Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF)

New release in 2014 National Seismic Hazard Map (2008) 7. National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) Shaking Intensity Eqk Rupture Forecast Ground Motion Model

LA region SFBA 8. Development of simulation-based urban seismic hazard models CyberShake (2013) Hazard Model CyberShake model of the Los Angeles region, comprising over 200 million synthetic seismograms

8. Development of simulation-based urban seismic hazard models Simulation of M7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

9. Deployment of a prototype Earthquake Early Warning system Simulation of M7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault Seismic stations Earthquake Early Warning Simulation of M7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

Conclusions and Recommendations Earthquake science sponsored by the USGS and NSF has –improved our understanding of seismic hazards for land-use planning, earthquake engineering, earthquake preparedness, and emergency management –enabled new technologies for tracking earthquake cascades, including operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and earthquake early warning (EEW) Congress should –reauthorize the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program to continue this R&D and its implementation –fund the USGS to deploy OEF and EEW systems in California, Washington, and other at-risk states

End