The Problem (dine at your own risk) Of the 150 customers who ate dinner last night at the Palazzo di Sporcizie 66 had a fish entree, 72 a meat entree, the rest ate a vegan meal. Historically four in ten Palazzo’s customers who have a fish entree develop some stomach trouble within twelve hours of their meal. For meat eaters the rate is 3 in ten, while only one in ten vegans develops stomach trouble in that time limit. This morning at lunch you hear a person saying: “Yesterday I ate dinner at the Palazzo di Sporcizie, it was excellent, I had no trouble at all, except for the price.” Is the person you overheard most likely to be a fish eater, a meat eater, or a vegan?

The Problem (Let’s be serious now) 150 Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients recently participated in a research study. Four medications are currently approved by regulatory agencies such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to treat the cognitive manifestations of AD: three are acetylcholinesterase inhibitors and the other is memantine, an NMDA receptor antagonist.Food and Drug AdministrationEuropean Medicines Agency acetylcholinesterase inhibitors memantineNMDA receptor antagonist No drug has an indication for delaying or halting the progression of the disease.

The Problem (Continued) 44% of the AD patients participating in the study received an acetylcholinesterase inhibitor, 48% were treated with memantine, the remaining patients, due to their remarkably good physical conditions, received a placebo. memantine, Past research suggests that 40% of AD patients on an acetylcholinesterase inhibitor show remarkable improvement, the drug memantine improves the conditions of about 30% of the patients treated with it, and 10% of AD patients in good physical conditions show improvement if left untreated.memantine A patient picked at random from the 150 has shown no improvement. Which drug (or the placebo) is most likely to have been used with this patient?

The Solution(s) The sample space S has 150 sample points (customers/AD patients)

The Event of Interest is: For Dining Customers : No stomach trouble For AD patients : No improvement We do the calculations on the blackboard

We need to compute: (They must be “givens.”)