Naval Oceanography Naval Oceanography: Excellence in (Tropical) Meteorology Rear Admiral Dave Titley Commander Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command Presented to 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Charleston, SC 3 March 2008

Naval Oceanography 2 Overview: Communications and Cooperation The United States Navy is committed to excellence in operational meteorology –Unless we keep the Fleet safe, nothing else really matters We are interdependent with our partners and stakeholders –Part of the nation’s weather infrastructure The Future is bright – and very different from the past –Forecasters: Moving up the value chain How we communicate our information Ensembles  Risk management –Battlespace on Demand  Decision Superiority Naval Oceanography – a great place to work! We are the Navy’s Operational Science Community

Naval Oceanography 3 KNOWLEDGE-CENTRICWARFIGHTING FOCUSED Anti-Submarine Warfare Naval Special Warfare Mine Warfare ISR Navigation Precise Time and Astrometry Fleet Operations Maritime Operations Aviation Operations FNMOC NAVO USNO Warfighting Safety Shaping Naval Oceanography ~$600M operating budget 12 ships 1950 military, 1350 civilians CUS Naval Oceanography Teamwork Technical Excellence Clear Communications Manage Risk Measure Results Continuous Improvement

Naval Oceanography 4 Naval Meteorology Numerical Wx Prediction Maritime / Polar Aviation Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Fleet Operations Expeditionary

Naval Oceanography 5 Global Regional / Relocatable Aerosol / Dispersion Tropical Cyclone Coupled Wave and Ocean Ensembles Information Assurance Tight R&D Ops Connection Numerical Weather Prediction 500 mb Height AC NHEM

Naval Oceanography 6 Joint Typhoon Warning Center 26 TC’s 6 TC’s 24 TC’s 35 – 40% decrease in track errors over past 10 years 72 hour track error < 150 nm in 2007 Used by NWS for Guam, Saipan 56 Tropical Cyclones warned on in 2007

Naval Oceanography 77 Communication “Paradox of Accuracy” Better warnings may not equate to less damage How to best communicate probabilistic information? How to best communicate probabilistic information? The Weather Research Challenge Track + Intensity + Structure + Coupling = Better Sea, Swell & Storm Surge Fcsts Track + Intensity + Structure + Coupling = Better Sea, Swell & Storm Surge Fcsts The Communications Research Challenge Storm vs. Tropical Storm, Gale vs. Tropical Gale, etc. TC COR ambiguity - “Hazardous vs. TC COR ambiguity - “Hazardous vs. Destructive vs. Destructive vs. Hurricane Winds”Hurricane Winds” “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” -Albert Einstein

Naval Oceanography Officers Chiefs Junior Enlisted CiviliansTotal Safety Operations Smart: Sensing Forecasting / Automation Communications Partnering NWS USAF Other Countries $300B of Ships, A/C and Shore Assets

Naval Oceanography 9 Partnerships Navy values the partnerships and interdependence with NOAA, the USAF, academia and industry in meteorology – we can’t do this alone! –JTWC … A success story for over 50 years USAF Satellite and forecasting expertise –National Weather Service forecasts are the backbone of the Navy’s installation resource protection program. 5 Day TC forecasts NWS investment in Advanced TC Forecaster (ATCF) –Participation in next generation national weather forecast model with NOAA and USAF –Navy contributes a key numerical forecast member to the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast ensemble. ATCF, Sat Viewer –International

Naval Oceanography 10 The Future Big Changes for NOGAPS in 2008/9 –Semi-Lagrangian (T239L30  T479L60) –4DVAR (NAVDAS – AR) –Ensembles (NAEFS, migrate to EKTF, WW3 w/ NCEP) –WW3 Upgrades –CPU Upgrade at Monterey (1.4 TFLOPS  22 TFLOPS) People –Contracting out observing functions at Naval Air Stations –B.S. Marine Meteorology for qualified Sailors –In-house forecasting training Ensembles & Communication –Typhoon forecasts –Experiments –NRL Probabilistic Prediction Research Office (PRO)

Naval Oceanography 11 People + Technology Partnering with the Science, Technology, and Research and Development communities to: –Maximize operational impact –Minimize time to transition into our skilled workforce Increased model skill – an opportunity to do our job differently –Automate first guess for enroute ship forecasts and routes –Automate environmental impact assessment – provides rapid situational awareness Training and education of skilled 21 st century weather forecasters –How to best use ensembles –How to best use forecast information to inform decision-makers In combat In risk-management In civilian applications (e.g., Next-Gen)

Naval Oceanography 12 Summary Navy remains committed to excellence in meteorology Increasing focus on leveraging partnerships with NOAA, USAF and international stakeholders –Participation in next generation national forecast model (NUOPC) –Ocean forecasting –Defining the role of the 21 st century forecaster Battlespace on Demand Rapid transition advanced S&T discoveries into operations We are hiring! There is opportunity everywhere we look – in the tropical field!

Naval Oceanography 13 Questions?