Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England How can we more effectively inform governance decisions at multiple scales: land management (conservation planning), markets, technology (grey & green infrastructure), regulations (criteria) and incentives, and individual actions ? SSWR - Signature Project - Talk Outline Goals Conceptual framework (for Social-Ecological System) Key upper level questions, guiding aspects of the research We need to understand system, to better inform governance decisions Planned research products and schedule ( ) Trends ( in part based on published literature and historical data) & Scenarios Communication for conservation ( multiple goals ) Need for collaboration ( research and management ) Additional Sides ( References ) In PPT presentation mode, multiple active hyperlinkshyperlinks

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development SSWR Research Priorities Purpose of the SSWR Signature Project Goals: Demonstrate an approach to integrated nutrient management for the Narragansett Bay system Provide solutions that can be broadly applied to other coastal watersheds and their associated estuaries Such that nutrient management decisions in Southern New England ecosystems and watersheds are made in a holistic manner So that human well-being and ecosystem condition are maintained, protected or improved. SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients.

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England Sustainable Water & other ecosystem services Disturbances & Enhancements Physical hydrologic sediments thermal Chemical nutrients contaminants Biological habitat biota Drivers of change: Global climate change, population growth & land use change biogeochemical cycles Social context Biotic context Adaption of Collins et al 2011 Frontiers in Ecology Press Pulse Dynamics Framework,Press Pulse Dynamics Framework Decisions Air Land Water Q1 Scales : National, Regional, Local Supply of services Demand for and access to services EPF’s SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients. A systems approach for organizing management and research questions ORD Informing Ecosystem Structure Ecosystem Function ERF’s Human Behavior land management (conservation planning), markets, technology (grey & green infrastructure), regulations (criteria) and incentives, and individual actions. Human Outcomes variations in quality and quantity of water & effects on: 1) designated uses of water, 2) human health & well being (e.g. aesthetics) 3) economic values

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England 1) How has the management of Narragansett Bay and its watershed to date impacted the disturbances, enhancements, and ecosystem structure and function? (2) How do both drivers of change, and disturbances / enhancements (specifically nutrient related impacts) affect ecosystem structure and function, and ultimately sustainable water resources? (3) How can future governance decisions be informed or supported at multiple scales, related to management of the system to help assure sustainable water resources and desirable human outcomes? Need to informing a range of regulatory and non-regulator human behaviors related to possible physical, chemical and biological enhancements. To better inform decisions at a range of governance scales: There are a number of questions the research program needs to answer:

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development SSWR Research Priorities SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients. Need to understand: the specific system to be managed desired outcomes (e.g in case studies) Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia, watershed & airshed Chesapeake Bay, watershed & airshed Narragansett Bay, watershed, & airshed larger & local scale drivers of change key ecosystem structures & functions human outcomes & behavior how management networks operate how research networks inform decisions Are Agency policies & governance decisions at multiple scales related to air, land, and water, enabling or inhibiting systems solutions? End users in governance at a range of scales knowledge information data For Nr we could look at source reduction and sink enhancement.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development SSWR Research Priorities : Trend analysis of stressors and ecological responses, particularly nutrients, in the Narragansett Bay Watershed How is the watershed and estuary changing over time? 2014: Assessment of past & present governance decisions affecting nutrient fluxes Are we learning from different policy cycles? 2015: Quantitative models describing past and current nutrient fluxes and associated ecosystem level responses How much of the observed variation is predictable and controllable? Requires combination of measurements, experimentation and quantitative models. 2015: A systems analysis of nutrient management scenarios under climate variation for Narragansett Bay Watershed How can future scenarios be designed to inform key future decisions? 2016 Key Product: Decision support tools to inform decisions at multiple scales affecting nutrient flux and the trajectory change within the Narragansett Bay Watershed as a demonstration: Are the conceptual approaches, information, and decision support tools useful to end users? 2017: A guidance manual for extrapolation and transferring the tools to other coastal watersheds How might the approach be adapted for use in other watersheds? SSWR Signature Project & Planned Research Products: Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development SSWR Research Priorities Trends in Nitrogen Loading: Coterminous U.S.A. Compton et al Ecology letters 5X ▲ TN 4X ▲ TN Narragansett Bay Vadeboncoeur et al SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients.

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England Plus POTW Point Sources to Estuaries Landside Load to the Estuary NB = 203 kg Nr / ha estuary / yr CB = 270 kg Nr / ha estuary / yr Scales of Governance Air rules can benefit the region Local point sources solutions Agriculture solutions needed in some locations Several points to intervene Nr Cascade: Air, Land, & Water Geographic Variation in Sources of Nr Yield kg/ha/yr from Northeast Rivers Latimer & Charpentier (2010)Latimer & Charpentier (2010

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England –SCENARIO: Trends –SCENARIO: Composite How would these different future scenarios affect nutrient fluxes, e.g. ▲Nr flux thru the watershed to the Bay? RI Land Use Planning Scenarios Scenario planning project using the GIS analysis and 3 different growth scenarios for 2025.

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England Available from Landuse2025.ziphttp:// Red ▲ = new development Green = protected open space RI Land Use Planning Scenarios Scenario planning project TRENDS

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England Communication For Conservation Conservation for Human Uses: –Air ▲ NOx controlsNOx controls –Land ▲ Comprehensive LU PlanningComprehensive LU Planning ▲ Low Impact DevelopmentLow Impact Development ▲ Transfer of Development RightsTransfer of Development Rights –Water ▲ Point & Nonpoint controlsPointNonpoint controls ▲ Wetlands Restoration Wetlands Restoration Transportation Planning Conservation of Landscapes & Aesthetics Consideration of Climate Change How do we tie scenarios to ▲ Nitrogen flux ? RI Land Use Planning Scenarios Scenario planning project COMPOSIT

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development SSWR Research Priorities Trends in Nitrogen Loading: Coterminous U.S.A. Compton et al Ecology letters 5X ▲ TN 4X ▲ TN Narragansett Bay Vadeboncoeur et al SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients. 19

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development SSWR Research Priorities Informing governance institutions Knowledge transfer at a range of scales Other Active Research Efforts informing Decisions in Narragansett Bay: Federal Agencies (e.g. USGS; EPA OW, OAR, R1; NOAA - CHRP),USGSEPA OWOAR,R1NOAA - CHRP Several Environmental Governance Institutions, and Universities (e.g. URI, Brown)URI, Brown Supported by: lab & field work, monitoring, e.g NERACOOS for use in a variety of models, e.g: CMAQ, SPARROW, SWAT, N-Sink, ESDSS, NLM, FVCOM, ROMs, EcoGEM, EcoOBM, Climate Change, etc. NERACOOS CMAQSPARROWSWAT, N-SinkESDSSNLMFVCOMROMs, EcoGEM, EcoOBMClimate Change Decision Support (DS) tools, designed with end-users in mind e.g. for Northeastern lakes. Involves use of SPARROW MRB-1 & DSS Nr & TPNortheastern lakesSPARROW MRB-1 DSS NrTP Approach & DS apps. that can be adapted for use in other watersheds. SSWR Signature Project. Geographic focus on Narragansett Bay & Watershed End Users of knowledge R&D knowledge Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England How can we more effectively inform governance decisions at multiple scales: land management (conservation planning), markets, technology (grey & green infrastructure), regulations (criteria) and incentives, and individual actions ? QUESTIONS? SSWR - Signature Project – Talk Outline Goals Conceptual framework (for Social-Ecological System) Key upper level questions, guiding aspects of the research We need to understand system, to better inform governance decisions Planned research products and schedule ( ) Trends ( in part based on published literature and historical data) & Scenarios Communication for conservation ( multiple goals ) Need for collaboration ( research and management ) Additional Sides ( References )

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England 16 Research on complexity in coupled social - ecological systems Press Pulse Dynamics (PPD) framework for social-ecological systems. Collins et al, 2011 Used by National Science Foundation, Long Term Ecological, in relation to their Decadal Plan. LTER DP. Decadal Plan Social context:Biotic context:

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England QUESTIONS? Additional Background Slides and Links Related to ORD and research for the 21 st centuryhttp:// Safe and Sustainable Water Resources (SSWR) Research Framework Nitrogen, a complex 21 st century challenge. Reactive Nitrogen (Nr) cascade Ecosystem Services Ecosystem services alterations affected by nitrogen (Compton et al 2011)Compton et al 2011 Press-Pulse Dynamics (PPD) framework from NSF (Collins et al 2011)Collins et al 2011 Reactive Nitrogen (Nr) as press, and pulse disturbances Decision Cycle: ORD Informing decisions about management of Nr CascadeNr Cascade

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development SSWR Research Priorities Galloway et al. (2003) Galloway et al. (2003), Compton et al. (2011) Ecology LettersCompton et al. (2011) How can research inform management of Nr sources and sinks? Policy Levers EPA OAR: NAAQS: PM, O 3, NO X, SO X ; Title IV EPA OW: National Nutrient Management Strategy TMDLs, Nutrient Criteria Nr Cascade Nitrogen research & management, a challenge for 21 st century Thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research related to the reactive nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points and benefits? RI & MA State Governance Decisions based on a combination of authorities and capacities Municipal Governance

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development SSWR Research Priorities Trends in nitrogen loading; a national challenge Coterminous U.S.A. Compton et al Ecology letters 5X ▲ TN 15 Nitrogen research & management, a challenge for 21 st century Thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research related to the reactive nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points and benefits? Coastal fish production Drinkable water Forest growth Northeast US Soil fertility for crops Nitrogen load (kg N ha -1 yr -1 ) Pristine Lakes Rockies 1 % of maximum Benefits and side effects. Tradeoff decisions informed using Ecological Production Functions (EPFs)

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England 20 Stressors/Drivers Ecosystem Condition Ecosystem Response Functions: ERF’s System Response N-Cascade Response System-based Knowledge (integrated models of ERF’s, EPF’s) Ecosystem Goods & Services and Human Outcomes Economic Values System Assessment Management Scenarios Decisions Tracking Progress ORD Informing Decisions OAR: National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS): PM, O 3, NO X, SO X ; Acid Deposition (Title IV)NAAQSTitle IV OW: National Nutrient Management Strategy TMDLs, Nutrient Criteria State Governance Decisions based on a combination of authorities and capacities Municipal Governance Policy Levers: CAA, CWA Using Collins et al 2011 color scheme Social context:Biotic context: Nitrogen research & management, a challenge for 21 st century Thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research related to the reactive nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points and benefits?

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England 21 EPA ORD informing decisions: To carry out the decision cycles efficiently/effectively we need to “know” several things. There are a number of “questions” a research program needs to answer: We need to know the stressors of concern and their loading/exposure What loading/exposure is coming in to the environment that causes harm/impairment? We need to know what the current ecosystem condition is in terms of loading/exposure and impairment What are the tipping points; critical loads; nutrient criteria? Where are the exceedances and how big are they? We need to know how we got to the impairment What are key ecological production functions (ERF’s, EPF’s) underlying impairment? Stressors/Drivers Ecosystem Condition Ecosystem Response Some thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research and management related to the reactive Nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points; possible cascading benefits?

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England 22 We need to know how the sources are connected together and where are there feedbacks to create tools for management analysis that will address cross-media effects and uncover unintended consequences What key elements of the N Cascade need to be connected together to provide a full picture of the system, flows and feedbacks and to be able to point out unintended consequences? How do we implement our systems-based knowledge in integrated, multimedia models? We need to know how impairment connects to society What are the ecosystem services provided by the environmental systems? We need to know what the costs and benefits are in common terms How are the ecosystem services valued and incorporated in an assessment framework? We need to know from where the loading/exposure is coming from What are the sources? (source apportionment) Ecosystem Goods & Services and Human Outcomes System Response N-Cascade Response, System-based Knowledge Economic Values Some thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research and management related to the reactive Nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points; possible cascading benefits?

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England 23 We need to be able to compare and contrast different management strategies (tools) and do it simultaneously across media How do we provide a one-environment, integrated, multimedia scenario capability through modeling tools to address management questions; provide a range of tools? We need to monitor the effectiveness of the management decisions How do we design the monitoring of key indicators to provide feedback for adaptive management? How is our current research portfolio organized relative to these questions. What are we doing that fits? What are we missing? How do we/can we demonstrate this in a few case studies? Tracking Progress System Assessment Management Scenarios Some thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research and management related to the reactive Nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points; possible cascading benefits?