Communicating Forecasts: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations Karen Pennesi Ph.D. candidate University of Arizona

Northeast region of Brazil Ceará state in NE Brazil NE

Ceará Context Semi-arid climate Most rain from Feb. to May Pop. 7.5 million 85% of rural pop. is poor Mostly rain fed subsistence agriculture Drought every 7-10 yrs.

FUNCEME FUNCEME = Ceará Foundation for Meteorology and Hydrological Resources Produces seasonal climate forecast expressed as a probability Official forecast is the result of consensus among international researchers

Rain Prophets older farmers predictions based on observations of insects, animals, birds, plants, winds, stars, clouds, and other phenomena in nature

Project Goal and Methodology Why do people criticize meteorologists and rain prophets? 14 months of fieldwork in Ceará, Brazil Recorded interviews, focus group discussions, annual meetings of the rain prophets Administered survey to 189 farmers in 3 regions of Ceará

Cultural Models Influencing Interpretation and Evaluation of Predictions

What Farmers Expect From a Prediction Optimism; only indirect references to drought A high level of accuracy in specifying: –when it will rain –how much rain will fall –where it will rain

Objectives, Expectations and Communicative Practices

FUNCEME’s Meteorological Forecasts 80% accuracy rate probability that the total rainfall for a region will be dry, normal or wet No forecast of harvest

Predictions Made by Rain Prophets Use terms and references meaningful to farmers Framed optimistically to encourage planting and give hope Grounded in religion

Identifying Communication Problems and Building Shared Understandings

1)Look for multiple definitions of key terms The same word with different meanings leads to miscommunication Distinctions salient to one group may be meaningless to another

“Below the historical average” What is the average rainfall here? - 10% correct - 58% did not know - 32% gave incorrect answers Interpretations of seasonal forecast: “below average rainfall” -47% had no understanding at all -46% said: drought; very little rain; insufficient rain for agriculture

2)Non-scientific usages are legitimate too What is the motivation to learn scientific concepts and to adopt scientific approaches? Without motivation and perceived benefits, new concepts and changes in thinking are resisted. Traditional alternatives can be effective.

3)Public education versus “translation” How much do people need to understand to be properly informed? Can new formats be created through collaboration?

4)Explain limitations. Be relevant. Some questions cannot be answered with available technology and resources. Interpretations are shaped by expectations and needs.

5)Consider the format and content of the presentation within the cultural context. What do people expect from forecasts? What value do forecasts have to them? Which communication styles are preferred? Which media are most effective?

Conclusion: Improving Science Communications What questions do people want answered? What type of information do they want? What formats are most appropriate? How is the information “used” aside from decision-making?

Financial support for this research was provided by: The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of