International Security and Peace : Northeast Security Issues Prof. Jaechun Kim

1. Geopolitical Map of Northeast Asia

2. Major Security Challenges of Northeast Asia  North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program  North Korea’s Byongjin Strategy ( ) : North made it official that it would not relinquish nukes  Dramatic increase in nuke capabilites  Use of HEU for 3 rd test!  Danger of arms race in the region

 Source of instability in inter-Korean relations  Not many policy options!

 Escalating great power rivalry in the region  Rise of China  Assertive foreign policy posture of Xi – No more “ 韜光養晦 (conceal one's ability and bide one’s time!)”  New Type of Great Power Relations ( 新型大國關係 ) with the US – We are two equals!

 Good neighbor policy toward neighboring countries in Southeast Asia, but at the same time using ‘great power diplomacy’ to them…  Disputes with Vietnam  Disputes with the Philippines  Strained relations with Japan  Senkaku islands ( 釣魚島 )  Charm offensive to South Korea

 Russia  Strained Relationship with the US  Gradual shift to Northeast Asian region

China & Russia in North East Asia and Korean Peninsula

 US – Pivot to Asia (Rebalancing Strategy) !  Japan’s Renewed Aggression  Collective self-defense  Distorting history  Territorial disputes with major stakeholder countries in the region   Asia Paradox

3. Solutions?  How to Deal with the North Korean Nukes?  Trust-process(trustpolitik) toward North Korea?  Build Trust First!  Strengthen (nuclear) deterrence?  Restart nuclear diplomacy?

 How to deal with Asian Paradox?  Establish multilateral security institution in the region!  Asian equivalent of CSCE and OSCE…  Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative (NAPCI)?  Seek Cooperation in Non-traditional Security Issues (Human Security Issues)  Give “neo-functionalism” a chance!  Start Small; Incrementalist Approach… !

Multilateral institutional settings of the region